Indicator Significance of Moutai for the Cyclical Turning Point of the Baijiu Industry and Reference to Historical Bottom Characteristics

Based on the latest trading and historical data [0], the following is a systematic analysis of Moutai’s indicator significance for the cyclical turning point of the baijiu industry and the characteristics of historical cyclical bottoms:

• Price and Retracement
  : Moutai’s current closing price is 1414.13 yuan, a cumulative drop of 45.63% from its historical high of 2601 yuan on February 10, 2021, with an adjustment period of approximately 4 years and 10 months [0].
• Technical Indicators
  :
  • 20-day moving average:1419.46 (relative position:99.62%), 50-day moving average:1438.43 (relative position:98.31%), 200-day moving average:1480.86 (relative position:95.49%), current price is below the 200-day moving average [0].
  • RSI is 48.01, in a neutral to slightly lower range; 20-day volatility is12.79, indicating recent volatility convergence but still some degree of fluctuation [0].
• Valuation Performance (Returns in Different Past Windows)
  :
  • Past 20 days: -2.51% (annualized -31.34%).
  • Past60 days: -1.73% (annualized -7.20%).
  • Past120 days: -0.10% (annualized -0.22%).
  • Past250 days: -9.23% [0].

• Weathervane Role
  : As a benchmark for high-end baijiu, Moutai’s price trend is highly correlated with industry sentiment. The current cumulative retracement (45.63%) has approached the historical cyclical bottom level, and the technical side is close to or below key moving averages, indicating a possible bottoming phase, but further coordination between trading volume and technical indicators needs attention [0].
• Demand-Side Signals
  : Although tool data does not directly provide Spring Festival sales momentum or distributor sentiment, the strength and sustainability of demand recovery can be verified through subsequent data tracking (such as Spring Festival sales momentum data, distributor inventory and order willingness, Feitian Moutai wholesale price) [0].
• Supply and Structural Changes
  : The current adjustment period has lasted nearly5 years, significantly longer than historical cycles (about6 months in2013-2014, about3 months in2018, about4 months in2022), indicating that this round of adjustment is more influenced by medium-to-long-term factors (changes in consumption structure, channel inventory destocking pressure, etc.). If obvious supply contraction (such as structural adjustments like15-Year Moutai production cut, Feitian production cut) is combined with policy easing (cancellation of bundling), it will strengthen the turning point expectation [0].

Combined with four historical bottom data [0]:

1. 2013-2014 Cycle
   :
   • Date: January15,2014, price:98.15 yuan.
   • Drop from previous high: -43.68%, subsequent1-year gain:72.34%.
   • Characteristics: Against the backdrop of macroeconomic slowdown, anti-corruption and consumption suppression, demand contracted sharply and prices corrected deeply.

2. 2018 Adjustment
   :
   • Date: October30,2018, price:524.00 yuan.
   • Drop from previous high: -34.43%, subsequent1-year gain:125.92%.
   • Characteristics: Financial deleveraging and increased capital market volatility led to short-term setbacks in baijiu demand.

3. 2022 Adjustment
   :
   • Date: October31,2022, price:1350.00 yuan.
   • Drop from previous high: -38.47%, subsequent1-year gain:24.78%.
   • Characteristics: Repeated COVID-19 outbreaks and restricted consumption scenarios increased channel inventory pressure.

4. 2024 to Present (Recent)
   :
   • Date: September19,2024, price:1261.00 yuan.
   • Drop from previous high: -31.80%, subsequent1-year gain:16.41% (as of data statistics date) [0].
   • Characteristics: The adjustment duration has been significantly extended, current price is below the200-day moving average, and short-term recovery amplitude is moderate.

:

• Retracement Amplitude
  : Historical cyclical bottom retracements are mostly between35-45%, and Moutai’s current cumulative retracement of 45.63% has reached the upper limit of this range, indicating limited further deep decline space, but the stabilization signal needs to be judged in combination with demand-side data [0].
• Adjustment Duration
  : Historical cyclical bottoms are mostly completed in3-6 months, while this round of adjustment is close to5 years, indicating that this round is more structural rather than cyclical fluctuation, and confirmation of the turning point requires observation over a longer time dimension and more clear supply-demand improvement data [0].
• Structural Signals
  : Supply-side contractions such as Feitian production cuts and15-Year Moutai production cuts may improve supply-demand relations; distributors lowering standards for recruitment reflects channel pressure, but if accompanied by policy easing such as cancellation of bundling, it will help reduce channel thresholds and boost order willingness [0].
• Aged Baijiu Price
  : As a reflection of inventory value, if the price of aged baijiu stabilizes and rises, it reflects market confidence recovery and can be regarded as an auxiliary indicator of the turning point [0].

• Positive Signals
  :

1. Current retracement amplitude has approached historical bottom levels (40-45%), and the technical side is in the bottoming area [0].
2. The adjustment duration exceeds historical cycles, which may reflect that the industry valuation and pricing system restructuring is nearing completion [0].
3. If supply-side contraction and channel policy easing occur, it will enhance the expectation of fundamental recovery [0].

• Risk Factors
  :

1. The rhythm and intensity of demand recovery still need data verification (such as Spring Festival sales momentum, wholesale price trend) [0].
2. Distributor inventory destocking may extend the industry’s bottoming cycle [0].
3. Consumption upgrade trend slows down, competition between high-end and non-high-end baijiu intensifies (such as Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, Jinshiyuan, etc., have different cumulative returns from2019 to present and 2024 performance, reflecting industry divergence) [0].

• Key Observation Indicators
  :

1. Spring Festival sales momentum data and channel order willingness.
2. Feitian Moutai wholesale price trend and inventory changes.
3. Impact of15-Year Moutai production cut on medium-to-long-term supply-demand pattern.
4. Policy changes (such as whether to cancel bundling, etc.) and improvement of distributor profit models [0].

Moutai is currently in a technical bottoming phase, and its price is highly correlated with industry sentiment, serving as a weathervane for the baijiu industry’s turning point. Historically, cyclical bottoms mostly have retracement amplitudes of35-45%, adjustment durations of3-6 months, and are accompanied by demand recovery (Spring Festival sales momentum) and supply contraction (production cuts, policy easing) [0]. This round of adjustment is close to historical maximum retracement but has a significantly longer duration, indicating that structural factors dominate. Currently, focus should be on Spring Festival sales momentum data, distributor inventory and order willingness, Feitian wholesale price, and structural changes such as15-Year Moutai production cut to verify whether the turning point is established.

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: All data comes from securities firm APIs and tool analysis, including prices, moving averages, RSI, volatility, historical bottom dates and prices, returns and retracements in various stages, and industry comparison performance [0].