Seres (601127) 'Turnaround' Logic and New Energy Sector Reversal Analysis

• Current price: 120.67 yuan; 52-week range: 112.14-174.66 yuan; YTD change: approximately -6.12% [0].
• TTM P/E: ~27.3x, P/B: ~7.09x, ROE: ~32.11%, net profit margin: ~4.84% [0].
• Retracement from recent high (174.66 yuan): ~30.91% [0].

• Trend: Technical judgment is sideways/no clear trend; short-term support at ~119.21 yuan, resistance at ~123.14 yuan [0].
• Trading volume: Recent average daily turnover ~32.43 million shares; 20-day,50-day,200-day moving averages are ~123.14 yuan, ~134.75 yuan, ~134.43 yuan respectively. Current price is below all major moving averages, indicating insufficient recovery from the high [0].
• RSI: ~38.1, close to oversold range but not extreme [0].

• Latest earnings and revenue: Recent quarterly EPS ~1.45 USD (YoY +9230.8%), revenue ~48.13B USD (YoY +74.7%) [0].
• Market data: AITO’s November deliveries ~51,706 units (new monthly high) [1]; cumulative deliveries of AITO M9 exceed 260,000 units, M8 exceed 130,000 units [1].
• Cash and debt: Recent free cash flow ~7.271B yuan; financial risk classification: ‘high_risk’ [0].
• Liquidity pressure: Current ratio ~0.91, quick ratio ~0.87; need to pay attention to short-term solvency [0].

• Sales volume ramp-up and new models: November deliveries hit a new high [1]; AITO matrix covers a wider price range; market information shows plans for new models like M6 [1][2].
• Technology and product iteration: ADS has been iterated to ADS 3.0/4.0 system; HarmonyOS cockpit continues to evolve; intelligent experience and reputation are strong [1][2].
• Policy and industry trends: Strong expectation of continued increase in new energy penetration rate in 2026; if the first half of the year is weak, there is a possibility of new stimulus policies being introduced [4][5].
• Market sentiment and position: Retracement of over 30% from the high, RSI close to oversold—market has already priced in some negatives [0].

• Short-term liquidity pressure: Current ratio below 1, financial risk label ‘high_risk’; need to pay attention to financing/cash flow management and potential refinancing rhythm [0].
• Policy fluctuations: Phased withdrawal of trade-in subsidies, expiration of purchase tax incentives at the end of 2025; 2026 policies not fully finalized—short-term sales fluctuations may amplify [4][5].
• Intensified industry competition: Record number of new models launched in domestic NEV market; price wars and competition intensity may suppress per-unit profit; institutions suggest battery costs may rise in 2026, squeezing gross margin [4].
• Overseas expansion and geopolitics: Overseas expansion faces uncertainties like tariffs, channel construction, and certification cycles; rhythm is uncertain [4][5].
• Valuation and performance matching: TTM P/E ~27.3x; if performance falls short of expectations or industry valuation system shifts downward, valuation center may come under pressure [0].

• H1 2026: If policies are clear (new subsidies/trade-in details implemented) + penetration rate continues to rise, the sector’s valuation repair momentum will strengthen; if policy introduction is delayed, market recovery may be postponed to Q2-Q3 2026 [4][5].

• Capacity clearance and pattern optimization: Price wars and profit pressure accelerate the clearance of tail-end players; increased concentration of leading players is an important prerequisite for sector reversal (need to track capacity utilization, M&A integration, and channel inventory reduction) [4][5].

• Valuation level: After significant retracement of overall valuation in the new energy sector, some targets have improved cost-effectiveness, but industry valuation still needs to be driven by performance fulfillment and industry beta [0][4].

• Policy: Whether new subsidies and tax rules are implemented in Q1 2026 is key; if released in January ahead of schedule, sales and valuation may react early [5].
• Sales volume: If monthly sales growth in H1 2026 stabilizes and rebounds for two consecutive months, accompanied by healthy channel inventory, it will be a signal for industry beta repair [4].
• Capital: Net inflow of northbound capital/new energy theme ETF capital turns positive; technical side shows volume breakthrough of neckline/half-year line—can be regarded as a right-side confirmation signal.
• Profit: Quarterly gross margin and per-unit profit of leading enterprises stabilize and rebound; cost transmission and price increase logic are established—fundamental reversal forms resonance [4].

• Partially yes: Current position has already priced in many negatives; sales volume and product rhythm provide a foundation for fundamental repair.
• Not fully yes: Short-term liquidity pressure, policy rhythm, competition intensity, and overseas uncertainties still exist; valuation increase needs stronger performance and policy signals for support.

• Optimistic scenario: Policies are clear in Q1 2026 and sales recover quickly → Sector beta starts at the end of Q1 to Q2 2026.
• Neutral scenario: Policy introduction is slightly delayed but industry pattern accelerates clearance → Reversal in late Q2 to Q3 2026.
• Risk scenario: Overseas demand/tariff disturbances intensify, coupled with continued domestic price wars → Reversal postponed to H2 2026 or even 2027.

• Aggressive type: Can lay out in batches based on current position; use Q1-Q2 2026 policy and sales signals as triggers for increasing/reducing positions; strictly implement stop-loss and position management.
• Conservative type: Wait for policy implementation, two consecutive months of stable sales recovery, incremental capital inflow, and stabilization/rebound of leading enterprises’ quarterly gross margin—right-side signals.

• Liquidity risk: Low current ratio; need to pay attention to cash flow and refinancing arrangements [0].
• Policy risk: Disturbance of short-term demand due to subsidy withdrawal and expiration of purchase tax incentives [4][5].
• Competition and cost: Pressure on profit margins from intensified industry competition and rising battery costs [4].
• Overseas uncertainty: Impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors on the rhythm of overseas expansion.

[0] Jinling API Data
[1] Online Search (News/Analysis): AITO M9/M7 delivery and sales information, November delivery hitting new high, etc.
[2] Online Search (News/Analysis): HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility and ADS technology iteration, AITO matrix and product planning.
[3] Online Search (News/Analysis): NEV industry trends and competitive landscape.
[4] CMB International Report (Online Citation): Forecasts 2026 China NEV retail sales +15.5% YoY to ~14.93 million units, wholesale sales +18.5% YoY to ~18.5 million units; judgments on policy rhythm and competitive landscape.
[5] Online Search: Reports on trade-in and purchase tax incentive withdrawal, policy window, and sales rebound expectations.

Note: This analysis is strictly based on acquired tool data and online search results, and does not include unconfirmed predictions or assumptions. For deeper financial breakdown, valuation modeling, industry benchmarking, and quantitative trading signal analysis, it is recommended to enable Jinling AI’s ‘Deep Investment Research Mode’ for more granular support.