2025 A-share Market's Historic Turning Point: Reconstruction of Valuation System from the "Moutai Era" to the "Hard Technology Era"

Cambricon surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the new “king of stocks” in the A-share market marks a historic moment where China’s capital market has entered a brand-new stage of development. This is not just a change in market cap ranking, but also an important signal that the A-share

[1]. Let’s analyze the far-reaching impact of this style shift from multiple dimensions.

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On a trading day in 2025, Cambricon (688256.SH) hit an intraday price of

, briefly surpassing Kweichow Moutai’s (600519.SH) RMB 1460.94, with its market cap once exceeding to claim the A-share “stock king” throne [1]. Though short-lived, this moment carries profound symbolic meaning:

• Shift in Market Voting
  : Investors are starting to vote with real money, recognizing the new position of hard technology in the A-share market
• Reshaping of Valuation Logic
  : From “certainty premium” to “growth premium”, from “defensive assets” to “offensive assets”
• Reflection of Era Characteristics
  : Reflects China’s economic transformation from traditional consumption-driven to technological innovation-driven

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Index/Sector	2025 Growth Rate	Core Features
STAR 50 Index	+38%	Concentrated hard technology leaders, leading the market
ChiNext Index	+42%	Outstanding growth, dominated by tech stocks
CSI 300	+15%	Traditional blue chips performed steadily
Shanghai Composite Index	+15%	Overall market rose moderately
Hang Seng Tech Index	+26%	Hong Kong tech sector strengthened synchronously

• The STAR 50 Index currently has an expected P/E ratio of
  57x
  , significantly higher than its five-year average of
  41x
  [2]
• Traditional liquor sector faces sustained valuation pressure with obvious capital outflows
• Hard technology sector received substantial increases in holdings by public funds

• Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138.SS):
  Soared from RMB 20.94 at the start of the year to RMB 80.8, an increase of over
  280%
  , with market cap exceeding
  RMB 1.6 trillion
  , approaching Moutai [2]
• Public Fund Position Adjustment:
  Foxconn Industrial Internet’s ranking in holdings jumped from 157th in Q2 to 7th, becoming the fastest-rising stock among the top 10 holdings
• Index products like
  5G Communication ETF
  included Foxconn Industrial Internet in their top four holdings

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provides strong external impetus for the rise of hard technology [1]:

• OpenAI and Oracle
  signed a
  USD 300 billion
  computing power contract
• NVIDIA invested USD 100 billion in OpenAI
  to build data centers
• Giants like
  Amazon, Microsoft, Meta
  continue to increase investment in AI infrastructure
• Global AI server output value is expected to reach
  USD 298 billion
  , accounting for over 70% of the overall server market

This global wave has made

, and Chinese enterprises’ strategic position in this field is becoming increasingly prominent.

China explicitly proposed in the

[1]:

• Artificial Intelligence
  will be placed in a
  more prominent position
  under the “new-quality productive forces” framework, alongside advanced manufacturing
• Technological self-reliance and self-improvement
  become the core of national strategy
• Domestic substitution
  is accelerating in semiconductor, AI chip and other fields

continue to be released:

• The government plans to strengthen the construction of new-type information infrastructure in the next three years
• “Anti-involution” policies improve profitability of related sectors, benefiting photovoltaics, lithium battery and other sectors
• CSI 300 Raw Materials Index has recorded a nearly
  50%
  increase this year

Take

as an example, showing the transformation of hard technology enterprises from “OEM factories” to “AI computing power base” [2]:

• 2025 First Three Quarters Revenue
  : RMB 603.931 billion, up
  38.4%
  YoY
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent
  : RMB 22.487 billion, up
  48.52%
  YoY
• Cloud Computing Business
  : Revenue grew over
  65%
  in the first three quarters, exceeding
  75%
  in Q3 alone
• AI Servers
  : Revenue increased
  5x
  YoY in the first three quarters, growing
  5x
  YoY in Q3

: From low-margin OEM to high-value-added AI computing power infrastructure, with synchronous upgrades in profitability and valuation logic.

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• “DCF + certainty premium” model represented by
  Kweichow Moutai
• Emphasizes
  stable cash flow, high ROE, brand moat
• Valuation anchors:
  PE, PEG, dividend yield

• “PS + growth premium” model represented by
  Cambricon, Foxconn Industrial Internet
• Emphasizes
  technical barriers, market space, industrial trends
• Valuation anchors:
  PS, PEG, R&D investment, market share

This shift is not a simple valuation bubble, but

.

• Hard Technology Main Line
  : AI chips, computing power infrastructure, semiconductor equipment, advanced manufacturing
• Traditional Value Stocks
  : Consumer white horses, financial real estate, etc., face valuation reconstruction pressure
• Growth Traps
  : Some pseudo-technology and concept-rubbing companies will face value regression

that AI demand is divided into two categories [2]:

1. Endogenous demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement
   has shown results, with average enterprise costs decreasing by 9-11%
2. Exogenous demand for new scenarios
   still needs to be broken through, with low penetration rates in most industries

• Public Funds
  : Substantially increased holdings of hard technology leaders and reduced traditional value stocks
• Northbound Funds
  : Shifted from consumer stocks to tech stocks
• Hot Money and Retail Investors
  : Chased ten-bagger stocks and AI concept stocks

: The market shifted from “defensive allocation” to “offensive allocation”, willing to pay a higher premium for growth.

• Traditional Model
  : Brands and channel providers enjoy the highest valuation premium (e.g., Moutai)
• New Model
  : Core technology R&D providers and key component suppliers obtain higher valuations (e.g., AI chips, computing power equipment)

: Value is further concentrated on the R&D and design end, and the manufacturing end can also obtain high valuations if it masters core technologies.

• R&D Investment
  : Enterprises increase R&D investment, with the proportion of R&D expenditure in revenue rising year by year
• Talent Gathering
  : More high-end talents return to China to engage in technological innovation
• Industrial Collaboration
  : Form a complete industrial chain from chips to applications

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• High-Certainty Segments
  : AI computing power infrastructure (servers, optical modules, data centers), semiconductor equipment and materials (domestic substitution logic), advanced manufacturing (Foxconn Industrial Internet model)
• Valuation Logic Returns to Fundamentals
  : Enterprises that can deeply integrate AI models with multiple scenarios and form a business closed loop are more investment-worthy; memory chips and data center power infrastructure are the most certain segments in the AI sector [2]

will spread from infrastructure to the application end:

• AI + Manufacturing
  : Intelligent manufacturing, industrial robots
• AI + Medical
  : Drug R&D, diagnostic assistance
• AI + Finance
  : Intelligent investment consulting, risk management

.

[1]: Digital technology (AI+, 6G, quantum technology), emerging industries (low-altitude economy, embodied intelligence, solid-state batteries), consumption upgrade (cultural tourism, elderly care, childcare and other service consumption)

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is by no means an accidental stock price fluctuation, but :

1. Reflection of Era Characteristics
   : National strategy shift from “consumption upgrade” to “technological self-reliance”
2. Reshaping of Valuation Logic
   : Market consensus shift from “certainty premium” to “growth premium”
3. Industrial Structure Upgrade
   : Economic transformation from traditional consumption-driven to technological innovation-driven
4. Inevitable Result of Global Competition
   : Sino-US technological competition has accelerated the rise of China’s hard technology

: It is not a simple sector rotation, but a structural reconstruction of the valuation system; it is not short-term speculation, but the beginning of a long-term trend; it will not be smooth sailing, but the direction has been determined.

For investors, the key lies in: Recognizing the trend (hard technology main line will run through the next few years), grasping the rhythm (alert to short-term bubbles, focus on long-term value), selecting high-quality targets (choose enterprises with real core technical capabilities and performance delivery capabilities), and diversifying risks (layout leading enterprises in细分领域 under the hard technology main line).

, but . The valuation system of the A-share market is undergoing a profound and lasting reconstruction, which will bring new opportunities and challenges to long-term investors.

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[1] Yahoo Finance - “Cambricon’s Market Cap Briefly Surpasses Moutai to Become ‘Stock King’: Myth or Bubble for Domestic Chips?” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/寒武紀市值一度碾壓茅台成-股王-國產晶片神話還是泡沫-000004726.html)

[2] Yahoo Finance - “China’s AI Chip Boom Boosts Cambricon and Alibaba Stock Prices” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中國ai晶片熱潮提振寒武紀-阿里巴巴股價上漲-035411646.html)

[3] Yahoo Finance - “China’s Top Leadership to Meet to Discuss New Five-Year Plan, Market Focuses on Tech, Consumption Anti-Involution and Other Issues” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中國高層即將開會討論新的五年規劃-市場關注科技消費反內卷等議題-001440292.html)

[4] Yahoo Finance - “Market Cap Approaches Moutai! Foxconn Industrial Internet’s AI Servers Account for 70% of Global Market Share” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/市值逼近茅台-工業富聯ai伺服器全球市佔七成-053004224.html)

[5] Yahoo Finance - “A Global AI Computing Power Arms Race is Underway! OpenAI Becomes the Biggest Investment Magnet” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/場ai算力軍備競賽全球上演-openai成投資最大磁鐵-121006858.html)

[6] Yahoo Finance - “Lakoo Investment | Bubble Not Near Bursting, AI Stocks Still Buyable Next Year (Brother Xiaoyong)” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/拉闊投資-泡沫未近爆破時-ai股明年仍可買-小勇哥-001536588.html)