Deep Analysis of Investment Value of Guangwei Composites (300699.SZ)

• Domestic Substitution Dividend
  : As a strategic new material, domestic substitution of carbon fiber is accelerating. The global carbon fiber market size is expected to grow from 164.88 kilotons in 2025 to 266.14 kilotons in 2030 [1]. Guangwei Composites, as a leading domestic enterprise, will benefit first
• Short-term Risks
  : Technical indicators show that RSI has entered the overbought zone [0]. Excessive short-term gains (+35.03% in 1 month [0]) and high valuation (P/E 59.72x [0])
• Long-term Value
  : The DCF baseline valuation is 52.51 yuan, with an upside potential of 35.3% compared to the current price [0]. In an optimistic scenario, the potential gain reaches 246%

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Indicator	Performance
Current Price	38.82 yuan
Daily Gain	+11.33% ⭐
5-Day Gain	+26.53%
1-Month Gain	+35.03%
52-Week Range	25.86 - 40.77 yuan
Market Cap	320.4 billion yuan

:

• Surge in Trading Volume: The latest trading volume is 96.19 million shares, far higher than the average of 15.61 million shares [0], indicating significant capital inflow
• The stock price has approached the 52-week high of 40.77 yuan [0]. Bullish momentum is strong, but we need to pay attention to correction pressure

:

Indicator	Value	Signal
MACD	Golden Cross	Bullish
KDJ	K:74.7, D:64.8, J:94.5	Bullish
RSI(14)	Overbought Zone	⚠️ Need to be vigilant
20-Day MA	31.09 yuan	Support
50-Day MA	29.61 yuan	Support

: Uptrend (breakthrough day, pending confirmation). Resistance level:40.77 yuan, next target level:42.33 yuan, support level:31.88 yuan [0]

: The J value of KDJ has reached 94.5 (extremely overbought), and RSI has entered the overbought zone, so there is short-term correction pressure.

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Financial Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Net Profit Margin	21.35%	⭐ Excellent
Operating Profit Margin	24.06%	⭐ Excellent
ROE (Return on Equity)	9.80%	Good
Gross Margin (estimated)	~35-40%	Good

:

• Net profit margin exceeds 20%, which is at an excellent level in the manufacturing industry, reflecting the characteristics of high-value-added products
• Operating profit margin of 24.06% indicates strong cost control capability

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Current Ratio	2.11	⭐ Healthy
Quick Ratio	1.74	⭐ Healthy
Debt Risk Rating	Low Risk	⭐ Safe

: Conservative type. The company adopts prudent accounting policies [0], and the quality of financial statements is high.

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Valuation Indicator	Value	Industry Reference	Evaluation
P/E (TTM)	59.72x	Chemical Industry:15-30x	⚠️ High
P/B Ratio	5.80x	Median:2-4x	High
P/S Ratio	12.64x	-	High

: The current valuation is at a high level, reflecting the market’s high expectations for domestic substitution of carbon fiber.

:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Price	Probability
Conservative	37.42 yuan	-3.6%	30%
Baseline	52.51 yuan	+35.3% ⭐	50%
Optimistic	134.32 yuan	+246.0%	20%

:74.75 yuan (current price:38.82 yuan, upside potential:+92.6%) [0]

:

• Baseline scenario: Revenue growth rate:3.7%, EBITDA margin:39.2%, WACC:6.6%
• Optimistic scenario: Revenue growth rate:12.3%, EBITDA margin:41.1%, WACC:5.2%

: If the domestic substitution process exceeds expectations, the company has huge room for valuation repair.

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:

• Aerospace
  : Aircraft structural parts, missile components (high-end T800 level and above)
• Wind Power
  : Lightweight of large blades (mainly T700 level)
• Automotive Lightweight
  : Structural parts of new energy vehicles
• Pressure Vessels
  : Hydrogen storage tanks for fuel cells

:

• T300/T400 Level
  : Full localization achieved, fully competitive
• T700 Level
  : Domestic substitution accelerating; enterprises like Guangwei Composites and Zhongfu Shenying have made breakthroughs
• T800 Level
  : Partial breakthrough; localization achieved in military field
• T1000/M Series
  : Still in R&D phase

:

1. Military Qualification
   : Has complete military qualifications and is a core supplier in the aerospace field
2. Full Industry Chain Layout
   : Integrated production capacity from precursor to carbon fiber to composite products
3. Technological Breakthrough
   : T800-level products have been applied in the military field, and promotion in the civilian field is accelerating
4. Capacity Expansion
   : Continuous capacity expansion to meet domestic substitution demand

1. Policy Support
   : National strategic new material plan, carbon fiber listed as a key development direction
2. Supply Chain Security
   : Key fields like aerospace must achieve independent control
3. Cost Advantage
   : The cost of domestic carbon fiber is 30-50% lower than imported products
4. Demand Surge
   :
   • Wind power large-scale trend is clear
   • Demand for lightweight new energy vehicles is growing
   • Demand for hydrogen storage tanks for hydrogen energy is released

: The global carbon fiber market size will grow from 164.88 kilotons in 2025 to 266.14 kilotons in 2030 [1], with a CAGR of about 10%.

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Dimension	Advantage	Sustainability
Technical Barrier	T800-level military certification	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Qualification Barrier	Complete military four certificates	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Industry Chain	Integrated from precursor to carbon fiber to products	⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Customer Stickiness	Aerospace central enterprise customers	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Capacity Scale	Top three in China	⭐⭐⭐ Medium

:

1. Domestic Substitution Accelerating
   : Penetration rate of T700/T800-level products in wind power, automotive and other fields is increasing
2. Stable Military Product Demand
   : Demand in aerospace field is highly certain, military product orders are stable
3. Capacity Release
   : New capacity is gradually put into production to support revenue growth
4. Valuation Repair
   : If performance resumes growth, the current high valuation is expected to be digested through performance

:

1. Short-term Performance Pressure
   : Latest quarter EPS is lower than expected, profitability declined
2. Valuation Pressure
   :59.72x PE is at a historical high, requiring strong performance growth to digest
3. Increasing Industry Competition
   : Competitors like Zhongfu Shenying and Jinggong Technology are expanding capacity
4. Technical Overbought
   : RSI overbought, short-term correction demand exists

:

:

• Domestic substitution is a medium-to-long-term trend, not a short-term speculation theme
• The company has irreplaceability in the high-end carbon fiber field
• DCF valuation shows there is still a 35% upside potential in the baseline scenario [0]

:

• Excessive short-term gains, technical aspects need to be digested
• Performance improvement below expectations may lead to valuation correction
• It is recommended to wait for a correction to around the support level of 31.88 yuan before considering entering

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Investor Type	Recommendation
Short-term Investors	⚠️ Be cautious about chasing highs; wait for correction to the 35-36 yuan range
Medium-term Investors	✅ Can build positions in batches below 35 yuan; target price:52 yuan (baseline DCF)
Long-term Investors	✅ Layout at low prices; hold for more than 3 years to enjoy domestic substitution dividend

:

• Quarterly performance resumes growth, EPS returns to above 0.25 yuan
• T800-level products make major breakthroughs in the civilian field
• Obtain large military product orders or wind turbine blade orders

:

• Performance decline for two consecutive quarters
• Industry competition leads to price wars
• Macroeconomic downturn leads to downstream demand contraction

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1. Valuation Risk
   : Current 59.72x PE is at a historical high; performance below expectations may lead to valuation correction
2. Technical Risk
   : RSI overbought, short-term correction pressure exists; support level:31.88 yuan
3. Industry Competition Risk
   : Competitors like Zhongfu Shenying expanding capacity may lead to price competition
4. Performance Volatility Risk
   : Latest quarter EPS is 40.3% below expectations; need to pay attention to profitability recovery
5. Macroeconomic Risk
   : Macroeconomic downturn pressure may affect downstream demand like wind power and automotive

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:

• ✅ Domestic substitution process is accelerating; the company has double barriers of technology and qualification in the high-end carbon fiber field
• ✅ Global carbon fiber market size doubles in ten years; China’s demand grows faster
• ✅ DCF baseline valuation is52.51 yuan, with a35% upside potential compared to current price
• ⚠️ Excessive short-term gains + high valuation; need to be vigilant about correction risks

: . It is recommended to wait for the stock price to correct to around35 yuan before building positions in batches; hold for more than 1-2 years to fully enjoy the domestic substitution dividend.

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[0] Gilin API Data (real-time market, financial analysis, technical analysis, DCF valuation)
[1] Futunnel News Image - Global Carbon Fiber Market Forecast (2019-2030) - https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20251128/65523612-13-b28e22d0382a762955c0aab1b4acff9b.jpg/big
[2] Futunnel - Analysis of Domestic Substitution Process of Carbon Fiber (https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20251128/65523612-11-547f7f14c11ab429b355691ea9ad3aad.png/big)
[3] Futunnel - Application Structure Diagram of Carbon Fiber in Aerospace (https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20251128/65523612-14-0decda5c1d4001a9171e894e0c43a3a6.png/big)