In-depth Analysis of Valuation Bubble Risks and Performance Delivery Capability of Commercial Aerospace Concept Stocks

Based on a systematic analysis of the A-share commercial aerospace sector, the current sector has

that are . Taking the leading stock China Satellite Communications (600118.SS) as an example, its year-to-date gain has reached , but the corresponding PE ratio is as high as , while the ROE is only , forming an extreme “high valuation + low profitability” combination [0].

---

As the sector leader, China Satellite Communications (600118.SS) has shown typical “sentiment-driven” characteristics in its 2025 price trend:

• Year-to-date
  : Soared from 27.25 yuan to 86.60 yuan, up +217.80%
• 3-month gain
  : +150.58%
• 1-month gain
  : +99.54%
• Single-day performance
  : On December 29, it rose +8.25% in a single day with a trading volume of 119 million shares, far higher than the average of 77.34 million shares [0]

: The above chart includes four sub-charts - Top Left: 2025 Price Trend Comparison (China Satellite Communications red line vs Haige Communications blue line); Top Right: Trading Volume Analysis; Bottom Left: China Satellite Communications Technical Indicators (MA20/50/200); Bottom Right: Valuation vs Profitability Scatter Plot. Data shows China Satellite Communications is in the “high-risk area” (top right corner) in the right chart, representing a valuation bubble state of high PE and low ROE.

• Haige Communications (002465.SZ): Year-to-date gain +39.80%, single-day limit-up +10.04%, trading volume reached 203 million shares, 3x the average [0]
• Sunlink Electronics (002546.SZ): Relatively rational, year-to-date gain +66.12% but PE ratio only 8.42x, ROE 20.13% [0]
• Galaxy Electronics (002519.SZ): In loss state with EPS of -0.77 yuan [0]

---

Stock Code	Stock Name	P/E Ratio	P/B Ratio	Market Cap (100M CNY)	Valuation Judgment
600118.SS	China Satellite Communications	1781.99x	16.12x	1,024	Extremely Bubbled
002465.SZ	Haige Communications	-118.08x	N/A	381	Loss Overvaluation
002546.SZ	Sunlink Electronics	8.42x	1.57x	59	Relatively Reasonable
002519.SZ	Galaxy Electronics	-8.23x	N/A	71	Loss Undervaluation

:

• China Satellite Communications’ PE ratio is as high as 1781.99x, meaning it would take
  1781 years
  to recover investment costs (assuming unchanged profits)
• In sharp contrast, its ROE is only 0.91% and net profit margin is only 0.87%,
  extremely weak profitability
  [0]
• The reasonable industry PE ratio is usually between 20-50x, China Satellite Communications’ valuation is
  35-89x
  the industry average

###3.2 Severe Overbought Technical Condition

Technical analysis shows China Satellite Communications has entered

[0]:

• KDJ Indicator
  : K value reaches 93.2, issuing overbought warning
• RSI Indicator
  : Shows overbought risk
• Trend State
  : Although in uptrend, marked as “pending” (to be confirmed)
• Support Level
  : 65.12 yuan (still 25% downside from current position)
• Resistance Level
  :87.51 yuan (already hit historical high)

: China Satellite Communications’ K-line chart shows the stock price accelerated upward in the second half of 2025 with significantly increased trading volume. The MACD technical indicator is in a strong area but shows divergence signs, KDJ is high and钝化 (stagnant), indicating increased short-term correction risk.

###3.3 Quantitative Judgment of Valuation Bubble

According to the “Valuation vs Profitability Matching Degree” analysis (top right quadrant of scatter plot), the commercial aerospace sector shows typical characteristics:

• High Valuation
  : PE >100x or negative
• Low Profitability
  : ROE <5% or negative
• High Gain
  : YTD gain >50%

This combination historically often indicates

.

---

###4.1 Financial Data Comparative Analysis

Financial Indicator	China Satellite Communications	Haige Communications	Sunlink Electronics	Industry Standard
ROE(%)	0.91	-1.72	20.13	>10% Excellent
Net Profit Margin(%)	0.87	N/A	91.68*	>10% Healthy
Operating Profit Margin(%)	-0.91	N/A	58.89	>5% Normal
EPS(TTM)	0.04	-0.13	0.84	>1 Good
Free Cash Flow	-523 million CNY	N/A	N/A	Positive Preferred

*Note: Sunlink Electronics’ abnormally high net profit margin may include one-time gains [0]

:

1. China Satellite Communications
   has negative operating profit margin (-0.91%), meaning core business is actually loss-making
2. Haige Communications
   has negative EPS (-0.13 yuan), in continuous loss state
3. China Satellite Communications
   has free cash flow of
   -523 million CNY
   , cash flow situation deteriorating [0]

###4.2 Revenue Growth and Profit Quality

China Satellite Communications’ latest financial data shows [0]:

• 2025 Q2 Revenue
  :879 million CNY
• 2025 Q2 EPS
  : -0.01 yuan (turned loss YoY)
• 2024 Full-year Revenue
  :3.48 billion CNY
• Serious mismatch between revenue scale and market cap
  : Market cap is 102.4 billion CNY while annual revenue is only 3.5 billion CNY, PS (Price-to-Sales Ratio) is still as high as15.55x

###4.3 Business Model Sustainability Doubts

According to industry analysis [1]:

• China Commercial Aerospace Market Size
  : Grew from 380 billion CNY in 2015 to 2.3 trillion CNY in2024
• But actual deployment progress lags
  : China applied for 51,300 satellite spectrum resources, but only less than400 were actually deployed as of November2025
• Significant gap with international peers
  : SpaceX has launched over10,000 satellites, China’s is less than4% of that
• Technology Generation Gap
  : SpaceX rocket recovery success rate exceeds91%, Chinese private aerospace companies’ recovery tests have failed repeatedly

: Market expectations are based on optimistic assumptions for the next10-20 years, but current performance cannot support such high valuations at all.

---

###5.1 China Satellite Communications(600118.SS): Typical Bubble Case

:

1. Extreme Valuation
   : PE1781.99x, P/B16.12x [0]
2. Extremely Weak Profitability
   : ROE0.91%, Operating Profit Margin-0.91% [0]
3. Price Deviated from Fundamentals
   : YTD +223.62% but EPS only0.04 yuan [0]
4. Overbought Technical Condition
   : KDJ 93.2, RSI overbought [0]
5. Deteriorating Cash Flow
   : Free Cash Flow-523 million CNY [0]

: Based on ROE0.91% and current profit level, reasonable PE should be between15-30x, corresponding stock price range , while current price is 86.60 yuan, .

###5.2 Haige Communications(002465.SZ): Loss Speculation

• EPS negative (-0.13 yuan), PE negative
• Year-to-date gain +39.80%, mainly driven by sentiment
• Actual performance is in loss state,
  valuation completely deviates from profit basis

###5.3 Sunlink Electronics(002546.SZ): Relatively Rational Target

• PE8.42x, ROE20.13%, relatively healthy fundamentals
• Year-to-date gain +66.12%, but valuation still in reasonable range
• Can be used as relatively safe option in the sector

---

###6.1 Policy Support

According to latest industry report [1]:

• Science and Technology Innovation Board opens door for hard tech enterprises
• “15th Five-Year Plan” includes commercial aerospace in national strategy for the first time
• China National Space Administration set up special Commercial Aerospace Department to coordinate resources
• 2025 is considered the first year of China’s commercial aerospace capitalization

###6.2 Market Expectations vs Reality

:

• New technologies like satellite internet, space computing, direct satellite connection to mobile phones will bring explosive growth
• It is estimated that if 2% of global computing power is moved to space by2029, it will drive 6,800 rocket launches in China [1]

:

• Technology Gap: SpaceX Starship’s payload is150 tons, China’s Long March 5 is only 25 tons
• Cost Gap: SpaceX’s launch cost is 20,000 USD/kg, China’s is still several times higher
• Progress Lag: China’s actual deployed satellite number is only0.8% of target

: Market but there are huge uncertainties in technical breakthroughs and commercialization progress.

---

###7.1 Valuation Bubble Burst Risk Rating

Stock	Bubble Degree	Correction Risk	Investment Recommendation
China Satellite Communications	Extremely Severe	Extremely High (>50%)	Avoid/Reduce Position
Haige Communications	High	High (30-50%)	Avoid
Sunlink Electronics	Low	Medium (10-20%)	Cautious Watch
Galaxy Electronics	Medium	High (30-40%)	Avoid

###7.2 Investment Strategy Recommendations

:

1. Avoid Chasing High
   : Currently at sentiment peak with severe overbought technical condition
2. Take Profits
   : Existing holders can consider reducing positions in batches
3. Wait for Correction
   : Focus on technical support level (China Satellite Communications around65 yuan)

:

1. Focus on Performance Delivery
   : Wait for substantial improvement in enterprise profitability
2. Technical Breakthrough Verification
   : Focus on private aerospace rocket recovery and satellite deployment progress
3. Policy Catalyst Timing
   : Wait for “15th Five-Year Plan” detailed rules to land

:

1. Select Truly Benefited Targets
   : Focus on companies with core technical breakthroughs and fast commercialization
2. Diversified Allocation
   : Avoid excessive concentration on single stock
3. Valuation Discipline
   : Adhere to the principle of “performance matching valuation”

###7.3 Core Risk Warnings

1. Valuation Regression Risk
   : Current PE is as high as1781x, even if profit grows50%, it still takes over30 years to recover cost
2. Technical Breakthrough Below Expectations
   : China still has generation gap with international leading level
3. Commercialization Progress Lag
   : Satellite deployment number is far below expectation
4. Policy Promotion Strength
   : Actual support strength may be lower than market expectation
5. Market Sentiment Reversal
   : Once热度消退, it may trigger stampede-like decline

---

Commercial aerospace concept stocks currently show typical

characteristics. The market , but current .

:

• China Satellite Communications: PE1781x vs ROE0.91%, mismatch index
  1957
  (PE/ROE)
• Gain Driver:223% gain vs 0.91% ROE,
  gain is 245x of profitability
• Reasonable Valuation:8-16 yuan vs current 86.60 yuan,
  bubble degree 440%-980%

: The commercial aerospace track has promising long-term prospects, but short-term valuation has seriously deviated from fundamentals, . Investors should remain calm, avoid blind chasing of high prices, and wait for reasonable allocation opportunities after performance verification.

---

[0] Gilin API Data - Real-time stock quotes, financial data, technical analysis, historical price data (December29,2025)

[1] Yahoo Finance - “1.5 Trillion USD Market! China-US Commercial Aerospace Race: SpaceX Ignites the Largest IPO in History” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-5兆美元市場-中美商業航太競速-spacex引爆史上最大ipo-陸航太民企集體衝剺科創板-075003307.html)

---