In-depth Strategic Analysis of Seres AITO 2026: Feasibility of 550,000 Unit Sales Target and Sustainability of Luxury Vehicle Market Leadership

Based on the latest collected market data and analysis, I will provide you with a comprehensive strategic analysis of Seres AITO for 2026.

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According to multiple authoritative forecasts, China’s auto market will face significant growth pressure in 2026:

• Overall market growth rate slows significantly
  : The China EV 100 Forum predicts that the domestic auto market may only achieve a slight growth of about
  2%
  in 2026, with sales expected to reach 28.2 million units, far lower than the
  9.7%
  year-on-year growth rate from January to November 2025 [2]. UBS Investment Bank’s forecast is more pessimistic, believing that passenger car sales may decline by
  2%
  year-on-year in 2026, compared to an expected growth rate of 8% in 2025 [2].

• New energy vehicle purchase tax incentives fade
  : Starting from January 1, 2026, new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives will change from “full exemption” to “
  50% reduction
  ”, with the maximum reduction per vehicle dropping from 30,000 yuan to
  15,000 yuan
  , and the actual tax rate rising from 0% to 5% [3]. More importantly, the pure electric range threshold for plug-in hybrid/extended-range vehicles will increase from 43 km to
  100 km
  , and the industry estimates that about
  30%
  of currently sold models may not meet the standard [3].

• Chain reaction of policy fading
  : The shrinkage of purchase tax differences means a reduction in car purchase incentives of over 100 billion yuan, which poses a challenge to the 2026 auto market growth [2]. More notably, car companies’ “purchase tax underwriting” policies may pre-empt part of the 2026 purchasing power, leading to pressure on the year-on-year sales data in the first quarter of 2026 [2].

2026 marks the transition of China’s auto industry from “

” to “” and “” [2]. As Gui Shengyue, CEO of Geely Auto, said: “With the adjustment of national new energy subsidy policies, industry development will be market-oriented, which marks the maturity of China’s auto market” [2].

He Xiaopeng, Chairman of XPeng Motors, made a more direct judgment: “The 2026 auto market competition will be more brutal and bloody” [2]. This indicates that the industry will usher in a new round of “survival of the fittest”, and enterprises with strong strategic resolve and heritage will have more advantages [2].

Seres AITO’s 2025 sales performance has laid a solid foundation for achieving the 2026 target:

• November sales hit a record high
  : In November 2025, Seres’ new energy vehicle sales reached
  55,203 units
  , a year-on-year increase of 49.84%; among them, the AITO series sales were
  51,677 units
  , a significant year-on-year increase of 59.73% [1]. This is the second time it has refreshed the historical record after breaking the 50,000-unit mark in October [1].

• Cumulative sales growth turns positive from negative
  : From January to November 2025, the company’s new energy vehicle sales reached
  411,288 units
  , of which the AITO series sales were
  376,668 units
  , with year-on-year growth of 5.58% and 4.85% respectively [1]. Relying on the strong growth in October and November for two consecutive months, the cumulative sales growth successfully turned positive from negative [1].

• Stable leading position in the high-end market
  :
  • AITO M9 cumulative deliveries exceeded
    260,000 units
    , setting a new record for deliveries of models above 500,000 yuan [1]
  • AITO M8 cumulative deliveries exceeded
    130,000 units
    , ranking first in sales in the 400,000-level segment [1]
  • AITO M7 cumulative deliveries exceeded
    350,000 units
    , and the new AITO M7 received more than 90,000 large orders within just 41 days of its launch [1]
  • The cumulative deliveries of the entire AITO series exceeded
    900,000 units
    , continuing to lead the high-end new energy vehicle market [1]

From the cumulative AITO sales of 376,700 units from January to November 2025, if December maintains the November level of 51,700 units, the full-year AITO sales in 2025 will be approximately

. To achieve the 2026 target of 550,000 units, a year-on-year growth of about is required.

:

1. M9 + M8 Dual Flagships Continue to Drive Growth
   : According to analysis, the annual sales target for M9 + M8 is
   300,000 units
   . Considering that M9 has accumulated 260,000 deliveries and M8 has accumulated 130,000 deliveries, and M8 ranked first in sales in its class for 7 consecutive months from April to November 2025, this target is achievable [1].

2. M7 Contributes Steadily
   : AITO M7 has accumulated over 350,000 deliveries and is the backbone of the brand’s sales. If it maintains the 2025 sales rhythm, M7 can contribute
   over 200,000 units
   annually [1].

3. New Product Increment
   : According to the product rhythm you provided:
   • M6 (March-April)
     : Positioned below M7, expected to open up incremental markets in the 300,000-350,000 yuan range
   • M9 Facelift and M9L (April-June)
     : M9L may be a long-wheelbase version, covering more segmented high-end needs
   • M8 Performance Version (September-October)
     : Enrich the product line to meet performance-oriented users
   • AITO Native Overseas Models (November-December)
     : Explore overseas markets with an export target of about
     50,000 units

4. Overseas Market Breakthrough
   : Seres has launched its European market layout, planning to launch right-hand drive versions of AITO M9 and M8 in Germany, Norway, etc. in 2026, and achieve rapid penetration relying on Huawei’s overseas channels (over
   1,000 stores
   ) [4]. According to estimates, if the overseas market contributes 10% of sales, it can bring an additional revenue increment of about 15 billion yuan [4].

:

• Impact of Subsidy Fading
  : Although the extended-range versions of AITO M9 (pure electric range over 600 km), M8, and M7 are likely to meet the new 100 km pure electric range regulation, the purchase tax reduction from full exemption to 50% will increase consumers’ car purchase costs, which may affect the purchase decisions of some price-sensitive consumers [3].

• Intensified Market Competition
  : In 2026, the new energy large SUV segment will evolve from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with
  31 competing models
  including Li Auto i9, Zeekr 9X, Xiaomi YU9, Volkswagen ID.ERA, NIO ES9, etc. [5].

Seres has completed a gorgeous turn from huge losses to high growth:

• 2023 loss of 2.45 billion yuan
  →
  2024 profit of 5.946 billion yuan
  , successfully turning losses into profits [4]
• 2025 first-half net profit of 2.941 billion yuan
  , a year-on-year increase of
  81.03%
  , and the profit growth momentum continues to strengthen [4]

This financial inflection point is due to the precise positioning of the AITO series in the high-end market and the technical empowerment of Huawei’s ADS system. Against the background of rapid penetration of L3 (expected to reach

in 2026), Seres is expected to achieve an average annual compound growth rate of in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [4].

The success of the AITO series confirms a core logic:

[4].

Key Data Support:

• AITO M9 achieved cumulative deliveries of 260,000 units with a starting price of
  569,800 yuan
  , and the average transaction price per vehicle exceeded
  500,000 yuan
  [4]
• This “value-first” competition strategy allows enterprises to convert technical advantages directly into profit elasticity without exchanging market share through price reductions [4]

: Seres strategically invested in Huawei’s Automotive BU subsidiary Yinwang Intelligence, obtaining a 10% stake to become its second largest shareholder [4]. As the core carrier of Huawei’s intelligent driving technology, Yinwang Intelligence’s revenue exceeded in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 300%, and plans to go public independently in 2026 [4]. Based on Yinwang Intelligence’s forecasted net profit of 5 billion yuan in 2025, Seres can obtain about in investment income, accounting for more than 5% of its同期 net profit [4].

: In 2025, sales of Chinese L3-level high-speed 120 km autonomous driving models represented by HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility were about , with a penetration rate of only , and cumulative sales just exceeded 1 million units [4]. This means that the number of L3-level autonomous driving models capable of handling 120 km/h on highways is only , with huge growth space.

After the access of L3-level autonomous driving models is liberalized, sales of Chinese-made cars represented by HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility will grow significantly. This is an advantage of advanced technology, and no other company is expected to surpass Huawei’s Qiankun Intelligent Driving in the short term [4].

: The global intelligent driving market presents a pattern of “China leading, overseas catching up”. The penetration rate of L3 in mature markets such as Europe and the United States is less than , with huge room for improvement [4]. The European new energy vehicle market size is about , but the proportion of L3-level intelligent driving models is less than ; Chinese brands account for only of the European market (2024 data), with huge room for improvement [4].

If Seres can achieve

market share in the European smart luxury vehicle market, it can contribute of annual sales [4].

According to the product rhythm you provided, Seres’ 2026 product layout shows an obvious

:

Time Node	Product	Positioning	Strategic Significance
March-April	M6	300,000-350,000 yuan range	Expand the sinking market and compete with Li Auto L6
April-June	M9 Facelift + M9L	High-end flagship above 500,000 yuan	Consolidate luxury benchmark, M9L covers larger size needs
September-October	M8 Performance Version	400,000-450,000 yuan performance-oriented	Enrich product line to meet performance-oriented users
November-December	Native Overseas Models	Customized for European market	Explore overseas markets with an export target of 50,000 units
End of year/early next year	M10 or M9 High-end Customization	Ultra-luxury segment	Further enhance brand premium

The core advantages of this product rhythm are:

1. No Empty Window Period Throughout the Year
   : New products or facelifts every quarter from March to December to maintain market heat
2. Full Coverage of Price Bands
   : From 300,000 yuan to ultra-luxury positioning, covering different consumer groups
3. Continuous Technical Iteration
   : M9 facelift and M8 performance version reflect technical upgrade capabilities
4. Global Layout
   : Native overseas models prepare for the outbreak of overseas markets

At the 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show, Seres’ Magic Cube Technology Platform

was officially released. He Liyang, President of Seres Auto, said: “The new Magic Cube Technology Platform 2.0 is led by panoramic intelligence and based on intelligent safety. It has newly upgraded smart energy, intelligent chassis, EEA architecture, and smart space. It is a ” [5].

Empowered by AI, AITO has created a “

” smart extended-range electric technology solution. This solution can realize functions such as making the vehicle work in the most economical range, worry-free range, efficient travel, and fast energy supplement, and build industry-leading smart energy safety through new technologies such as 5-layer protection of battery safety and active oil return for fuel safety [5].

AITO adheres to the concept of “

”. In just 4 years, it has subverted the century-old traditional luxury car brands with “” as the “new luxury” and become a new value benchmark for luxury cars [5].

Up to now, the cumulative deliveries of the entire AITO series have exceeded

, writing its leading position in the high-end smart travel field with real sales [5]. Once this brand cognition is established, it will form an insurmountable competitive barrier.

As the second largest shareholder of Yinwang Intelligence, Seres ensures the

Huawei’s ADS system [4]. In 2026, when L3-level intelligent driving becomes the standard for luxury cars, this exclusive advantage will become a core competitive barrier.

The current auto market is in a moment of fierce confrontation between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. The old order of luxury cars built by century-old car companies is gradually collapsing, and car companies mastering advanced intelligent technology are reshaping the competition rules [5].

(models above 300,000 yuan):

• AITO’s cumulative sales exceeded
  900,000 units
  , and M8 and M9 sales reached
  245,000 units
  from January to November 2025; AITO M9 has exceeded
  260,000 units
  in cumulative sales since its launch, ranking first in sales above 500,000 yuan; AITO M8 has exceeded
  130,000 units
  in cumulative sales since its launch, ranking first in sales in the 400,000-level segment; AITO’s cumulative sales of high-end/luxury models exceeded
  390,000 units
  [5]
• Li Auto’s cumulative sales exceeded
  1.15 million units
  (excluding L6 and i6 sales), and
  195,000 units
  (above 300,000 yuan) from January to November 2025 [5]
• NIO’s cumulative sales exceeded
  662,000 units
  (excluding NIO ET5 and ET5T, with LeDao and Firefly brands) [5]

Chinese high-end/luxury brands/models have risen, opening up new paths, new cognitions, and new recognitions [5].

:

1. Obvious First-mover Advantage
   : AITO M9 and M8 have established leading positions in their respective segments, and this leading advantage has a self-reinforcing effect.

2. Strong Technical Iteration Capability
   : The release of Magic Cube Platform 2.0 shows Seres’ ability to continue technological innovation [5].

3. Huawei Ecosystem Synergy
   : Relying on Huawei’s all-round empowerment in smart cockpit, intelligent driving, channel services, etc., forming a systematic competitive advantage.

4. Brand Premium Capability
   : The average transaction price per vehicle exceeds 500,000 yuan, proving that the brand has strong premium capability [4][5].

:

1. Intensified Competition
   : In 2026, the new energy large SUV segment will have
   31 models
   participating in the competition, evolving from a blue ocean to a red ocean [5].

2. Technical Iteration Risk
   : Competitors such as Li Auto, NIO, and XPeng are also catching up rapidly in the field of intelligent driving, and the technical gap may narrow.

3. Uncertainty in Overseas Expansion
   : The European market faces multiple challenges such as regulations, culture, and channels, and whether it can replicate domestic success is uncertain.

The core logic for Seres AITO to achieve the 2026 sales target of 550,000 units and maintain 20-25% performance growth is based on

:

1. Increase in L3 Intelligent Driving Penetration
   : From 1.6% in 2025 to 7% in 2026, HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility is expected to achieve excess growth relying on its technical leading advantage [4].

2. Brand Premium in High-end Market
   : The AITO series has established leading positions in the 500,000+ and 400,000+ markets, with an average vehicle price exceeding 500,000 yuan, and profitability stronger than the industry average [4][5].

3. Incremental Space in Overseas Market
   : The penetration rate of L3 in the European market is less than 0.5%, and Chinese brands account for only 8% of the market, with huge room for improvement [4].

:

• 2026 China passenger car market growth rate is -2% to 2% [2]
• L3-level intelligent driving penetration rate increases to 7% [4]
• AITO M9 + M8 annual sales target of 300,000 units can be achieved [4]
• Overseas market contributes 50,000 units of sales [4]
• The 50% purchase tax reduction policy has limited impact on high-end consumers

:

• Policy Risk
  : If the “trade-in” subsidy is not extended, it will抑制 replacement demand [2]
• Competition Risk
  : Competitors such as Li Auto, NIO, and Xiaomi launch competitive products
• Technical Risk
  : The technical leading advantage of Huawei’s ADS system is quickly narrowed by competitors
• Overseas Risk
  : Geopolitics, trade barriers, etc. affect overseas market expansion

Against the background of China’s auto market growth pressure and subsidy fading in 2026, Seres AITO’s achievement of the 550,000-unit sales target and maintenance of 20-25% performance growth

, mainly based on:

1. Strong Current Sales Momentum
   : November 2025 sales hit a record high, and cumulative growth turned positive from negative [1]
2. Perfect Product Matrix
   : From