2024-2025 Silver Investment Value & Price Trend Assessment: Inflation & Industrial Demand Drivers

Based on the authoritative market data I obtained and the latest web searches, the following is a systematic assessment of the investment value and price trend of silver against the backdrop of changing inflation expectations and industrial demand (Time span: early 2024 to December 29, 2025):

1. Market Performance Overview

• Price and Returns: According to brokerage data, the spot silver price closed at $74.77 per ounce on December 29, 2025. The cumulative return for the full year 2024 was approximately 26.21%; the year-to-date return for 2025 was approximately 154.8%, with a cumulative increase of 212.15% during the period (early 2024 to December 29, 2025), hitting a record high [0].
• Volatility: The annualized volatility over the period was approximately 31.98%, significantly higher than traditional major assets, reflecting silver’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and liquidity changes [0].
• Relative Asset Performance (2025, according to web news): Spot silver +~154.8%, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) +97.3%, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) +~58%, S&P 500 +~15% [1][2].

2. Technical Analysis & Risk Metrics

• Trend and Moving Averages: The current price is significantly above the 20-day (+11.45%), 50-day (+28.52%), and 200-day moving averages (+71.95%), indicating a strong uptrend [0].
• RSI: Approximately 73.02, entering the overbought zone, suggesting potential short-term correction risks [0].
• Drawdown and Downside Risk: The maximum drawdown during the period was ~-16.91% (occurred on August 7, 2024). After sustained high RSI levels, caution is needed for profit-taking and increased volatility [0].
• Sharpe Ratio: Assuming an annualized return of ~72.52% over the period and a risk-free rate of 4%, the Sharpe Ratio is ~2.14 (calculation: (0.7252-0.04)/0.3198), indicating that each unit of volatility was compensated by a high historical return. However, this high return is accompanied by extremely high volatility, requiring further evaluation via extreme scenario stress tests [0].

3. Dual Attribute Drivers & Pricing Logic

• Financial Attributes (Inflation & Interest Rates): The Federal Reserve’s entry into a rate-cut cycle and potential balance sheet expansion expectations have压低实际利率, supporting silver’s monetary/hedge attributes. If interest rates continue to decline or geopolitical risks escalate, the financial attribute will continue to provide valuation support [1][2].
• Industrial Attributes: Sustained growth in demand from photovoltaic (PV), electric vehicles (EV), electronics, and medical sectors forms long-term fundamental support for silver demand [1][3].
• Supply-Demand Balance: According to market reports, the silver market has experienced five consecutive years of supply shortages since 2021, with inventories at historical lows and tight spot markets, supporting price resilience [1].

4. Inflation Expectations & Macro Impact

• Interest Rates & Liquidity: Loosening expectations reduce the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets, and coupled with the de-dollarization narrative, enhance the attractiveness of precious metal allocation [1][2].
• Precious Metal Correlation: The Gold/Silver Ratio (calculated as Gold/Silver) is currently ~59.77, lower than the historical average of ~86. Silver has been relatively strong recently, but there is room for ratio adjustment under changes in the macro environment or market sentiment [0][1].

5. Long-Term Drivers of Industrial Demand

• Photovoltaic (PV): The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that new PV installations will reach 4,000 GW from 2024 to 2030, forming long-term support for silver demand [3].
• Electric Vehicles (EV): According to reports, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of silver demand from the automotive sector will be ~3.4% from 2025 to 2031, and EVs will surpass traditional models as the main source around 2027 [3].
• Other High-Growth Areas: AI data centers, electronics, and medical applications also contribute marginally to silver demand [3].

6. Risks & Uncertainties

• High Volatility & Technical Overbought: With an annualized volatility of nearly 32% and overbought RSI, short-term volatility and correction risks are not low; blind chasing of highs should be avoided [0].
• Macro Policy & Economic Fluctuations: If inflation rebounds leading to slower rate cuts or sharp fluctuations in risk assets, precious metals may be affected [1].
• Substitution & Recycling: Technological advancements and increased recycling volume may partially offset the marginal contribution of new industrial demand.

7. Investment Assessment & Strategy Framework

• Medium-to-Long-Term Perspective: Driven by the “financial + industrial” dual engines, silver has structural opportunities but requires acceptance of high volatility and strict risk management [0][1].
• Risk Hedging & Rebalancing: It is recommended to allocate silver in a portfolio with gold and diversified assets, and dynamically adjust positions to match individual risk tolerance.
• Quantitative Reference: In historical calculations, silver showed a high Sharpe Ratio in the given sample, but this result is sensitive to the time window. It is recommended to include stress tests (e.g., rapid rate hikes/recession scenarios) for further evaluation of robustness [0].

8. Key Price References (as of December 29, 2025) [0]

• Current Price: ~$74.77 per ounce
• 20-Day Moving Average: ~$67.09 (support zone reference)
• 50-Day Moving Average: ~$58.18 (stronger support)
• 200-Day Moving Average: ~$43.48 (medium-to-long-term support)
• Recent High: ~$79.39 (resistance reference)

Conclusion: Supported by both inflation loosening expectations and expanding industrial demand, silver had a strong performance in 2025 with significant interval returns but high volatility. Short-term technical indicators suggest overbought conditions and potential corrections, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals are supportive, but close attention needs to be paid to changes in macro policies and marginal supply-demand dynamics. It is recommended to evaluate silver’s investment value within a strict risk control and asset allocation framework, and make prudent decisions based on individual investment horizons and risk preferences.

References:
[0] Jinling API Data (brokerage data, charts, and analysis results)
[1] Yahoo Hong Kong Finance - Can Gold and Silver’s Uptrend Continue into the New Year? Rate Cuts and De-dollarization in Place; Experts Warn Bull Market Enters High Volatility Zone (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/金銀漲勢能跨年嗎-降息-去美元化全到位-專家警告牛市進入高波動區-020435901.html)
[2] Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance - Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs Driven by U.S. Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitical Risks (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/黃金和白銀升至紀錄新高-受美國降息預期和地緣政治風險推動-145542215.html)
[3] Yahoo Finance - Silver Demand Forecast to Expand Across Key Technology… (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-demand-forecast-expand-across-153000408.html)