Analysis on 2026 Q1 Liquor Industry "Ghost Gate" and Transformation Path

1. Macroeconomic Background and Demand-Side Pressure
   : The industry is still in a phase of deep adjustment, and the overall supply-demand relationship has not yet fully recovered. Even market opinions suggest that there will be no “V-shaped rebound” in 2026; it will take time for overall production to decline and prices to stabilize, and recovery will mainly depend on consumption and policy-driven factors [1]. This indicates that even leading enterprises, while actively slowing down and cleaning up channels, still face significant downward pressure in the short term.

2. Uncertainties in Channel and Consumption Recovery
   : Although some views suggest that a weak recovery may occur in the first half of 2026, this is premised on sufficient digestion of channel inventory, effective policy support for the recovery of business and mass consumption, and no further decline in the price system. If these conditions are not met, it will be difficult to support Q1 activity, especially since high-end wholesale prices are still in a bottoming or even declining range [2].

3. Rationality of Luzhou Laojiao’s Judgment
   : Considering industry trends and the aforementioned uncertainties, we can agree that Luzhou Laojiao’s warning of defining Q1 2026 as the “Ghost Gate” has a realistic basis—high base of Spring Festival sales, incomplete channel de-stocking, and ongoing adaptation of demand shift to low-alcohol and youth-oriented scenarios. A short-term compression of consumption volume by 30%~40% is a reasonable prediction. If subsequent economic and policy efforts are made, a phased stabilization can be expected after Q2 2026, but for high-end liquor, Q1 is indeed a key window to test channel and pricing discipline. This judgment reflects a strong sense of prudence and risk prevention.

1. Deepen Digitalization and Ecological Chain Capabilities
   : Luzhou Laojiao has completed digital transformation across production, supply chain, marketing, and headquarters management during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, laying the foundation for the “15th Five-Year Plan” ecological chain strategy [3]. Traditional enterprises should continue to strengthen data middle platform and computing power investment (e.g., Luzhou Laojiao’s target computing power of 30T this year) to achieve precise demand forecasting, private domain operation, anti-counterfeiting traceability, and channel collaboration, ultimately making “consumer pull” the dominant force.

2. Build “Self-Pleasure” Product Portfolios and Youth Scenarios
   : Low-alcohol, smooth-tasting products (such as the 38° low-alcohol line and the low-alcohol version of Guojiao 1573) are more in line with young consumers’ demand for “light intoxication and social drinking”. By introducing new drinking methods like iced drinks, mixed drinks, and cocktails, liquor can be integrated into scenarios such as nightclubs, small bars, and Livehouses, eliminating the “official banquet” label [3][4]. At the same time, extending to liquor derivatives like bio-fermented masks and perfumes helps build emotional connections with young groups’ lifestyles [5].

3. Reinvent Channel and Marketing Strategies
   : Instant retail, live-streaming e-commerce, Douyin/Xiaohongshu content matrices, and private domain operations help enterprises grasp the consumption rhythm of “gathering on a whim”, shorten the time from decision to consumption, and increase the value and frequency of single orders [4]. Offline, comprehensive “culture + social” venues can be created through events like the “Cellar Owner Festival” and immersive experience spaces, shifting consumption behavior from intergenerational “face consumption” to “quality experience” and “self-expression”.

4. Emphasize Quality and Visualizable Services
   : High-quality base liquor, intelligent brewing transformation, and protection of old cellars (over 90% of national-level composite protection groups) form the basis for high-end quality differentiation. When interacting with consumers, highlight the dual value of “technology + culture”, and strengthen visible and traceable quality stories about storage, aging, and formulas, thereby driving the cognition of “personal liquor” centered on quality.

5. Strengthen Channel and Consumption Value Transfer
   : De-officialization does not mean ignoring traditional channels, but enterprises should promote flattening and digitalization to reduce layer-by-layer stockpiling; shift budgets from “dealer rebates” to “consumer education + scenario-based experiences” to allow “face consumption” to naturally return to rationality. Through price system optimization (balancing high-end and low-alcohol, low-price tracks, and channel revenue balance) and precise promotions, improve repurchase rates and word-of-mouth.

Luzhou Laojiao’s warning of the “Ghost Gate” in Q1 2026 aligns with the current industry situation where overall supply-demand has not fully recovered and the price system is still in the recovery phase. Achieving transformation from official consumption to personal consumption through measures like digitalization, low-alcoholization, scenario-based innovation, and quality improvement is not only a strategy to cope with the short-term “Ghost Gate” but also a necessary path to build long-term competitiveness. It is recommended that traditional liquor enterprises continue to focus on consumer experience while strengthening channel, product, and marketing reforms, pushing Chinese liquor back to its core value of “quality + culture”.

[1] Sina Finance - “Scholars Predict 2026 | Xiao Zhuqing: Where Are the Opportunities in the Liquor Adjustment Period?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-24/doc-inhcwxmi9816676.shtml)
[2] Sina Finance - “Year-End Moutai Market Sends Positive Signals; Industry Insiders Say Liquor Industry May See Inflection Point in 2026” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-26/doc-inhecwfc2478928.shtml)
[3] Sina Finance - “Luzhou Laojiao Receives Research from 28 Institutions Including CICC; ‘15th Five-Year Plan’ Focuses on Ecological Chain Strategy and Low-Alcohol Liquor” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/aigc/jgdy/2025-12-26/doc-inhecwez7827273.shtml)
[4] East Money - “Luzhou Laojiao’s ‘Stable’ and ‘Practical’ Path: Building a Low-Alcohol Liquor Matrix to Activate the Z-Generation Market” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251225084612997494440)
[5] NetEase Finance - “Luzhou Laojiao: Received Institutional Research on December 24, Including CICC and China Securities Co., Ltd…” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KHO44MJ0051984TV.html)