Analysis of Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH) 2026 Production Targets and Profit Growth Certainty

• Market Value and Valuation: Current total market capitalization is approximately RMB 866.3 billion; share price is RMB 32.65 per share; TTM PE is 19.43x (real-time quote data) [0]; ROE is approximately 30.60%; net profit margin is approximately 13.91% [0]
• Performance Data: According to the company’s disclosure, the operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately RMB 254.2 billion (YoY +10.33%); net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was approximately RMB 37.864 billion (YoY +55.45%) [3]. This “first three quarters” data is used to verify the company’s profit trend but should not be directly extrapolated to the full year [0]
• Risk Qualification (Tool): Financial analysis classifies the company’s financial attitude as “conservative” and debt risk as “medium risk”; the cash flow statement shows the latest free cash flow is approximately RMB 24.063 billion (Note: The cash flow analysis section does not provide complete ratio details and needs further confirmation with the annual report) [0]

(Note: The above is the latest available data provided by the tool; more comprehensive annual/segment details should be based on the company’s official financial reports)

According to the company’s “Announcement on Production Planning of Major Mineral Products for the Next Five Years (Up to 2028)” and public information [1][2]:

• Copper: Target for mined copper in 2025 is approximately 1.22 million tons; target for 2028 is approximately 1.5-1.6 million tons (an increase of over 49% compared to 2023) [1][2]
• Gold: Target for mined gold in 2025 is approximately 85-90 tons; target for 2028 is approximately 100-110 tons (an increase of over 47% compared to 2023) [1][2]
• Lithium (LCE): Target for 2025 is approximately 100,000 tons; target for 2028 is approximately 250,000-300,000 tons [2]
• Zinc/Lead and Silver: Target for 2028 is approximately 550,000-600,000 tons of zinc/lead and 600-700 tons of silver [1]

(Important: The above is official information; the “2026 production targets” mentioned by the user have not been officially disclosed by the company; the following analysis focuses on project progress and capacity ramp-up rhythm, and it is reminded that the “2026 targets” should be subject to the company’s subsequent announcements and should not be regarded as a definite commitment at present)

• Kamoa-Kakula (DRC): Significant grade advantage (approximately 4.3%-6%) [2], Phase III has been put into production, with long-term planning for higher capacity; however, there are still uncertainties in the commissioning/ramp-up rhythm, geopolitics, logistics and other factors of overseas mines [1][2]
• Julong Copper Mine Phase II (Tibet): Multiple key certificates and approvals (project approval, EIA, forest/grassland, tailings pond and safety design, etc.) have been completed [3]; multiple sources of information show that the project “plans to be completed and put into production by the end of 2025”; after Phase II reaches full production, Julong Copper will produce approximately 300,000-350,000 tons of mined copper annually, which is expected to become one of the core sources of the company’s copper increment [3]. Note: The commissioning time and production ramp-up rhythm are affected by construction and climate factors, and subject to the company’s announcement
• Juno Copper Mine: Construction of the concentrator, tailings pond and living area is progressing, “planned to be completed and put into production by the end of 2026” [1]; the progress of the US project is still affected by local regulatory and licensing progress [1][2]

• The reconstruction and expansion of Zijing Mountain Gold Mine and the expansion of Aurora in Guyana are progressing steadily [2], and their contribution to the company’s future gold production depends on project progress and ramp-up rhythm
• Projects such as the Haiyu Gold Mine are potential increments, but public channels have limited disclosure on their commissioning time and capacity details, so they should not be regarded as a “definite source for 2026”

• “Two Lakes and Two Mines” layout (Argentina 3Q, Tibet Lagoucuo, etc.) [2]. The planning of Tibet Lagoucuo Salt Lake Project continues to advance, but the scale and commissioning time are subject to the company’s announcement
• African lithium mines (associated recovery) are still in the early development stage, and there are uncertainties in the commissioning and ramp-up rhythm [2]

Conclusion (Production Plan): The company’s production guidance up to 2028 is clear, but the specific “2026” targets have not been independently set in official disclosures; currently, it is more of a scenario deduction around the project schedule. It is recommended to refer to the company’s subsequent announcements and adopt a “cautiously optimistic, follow-up verification” attitude towards the realization of the 2026 targets

• Copper: Strong price trend in 2025 (significant annual increase in LME/Comex), AI data centers and green energy transformation form structural support for demand; multiple institutions predict that the supply-demand gap in the copper market will exist and may expand in the next few years (UBS predicts a gap of approximately 407,000 tons in 2026) [4][5]. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to approximately $11,400 per ton, with logic including “worsening shortages in non-US markets” etc.; at the same time, it reminds that current speculative positions are high, and there may be a correction risk if AI sentiment cools down [5]. Conclusion: The price is “generally optimistic”, but fluctuations and policy risks need to be included in the scenario
• Gold: Gold prices hit a record high in 2025, driven by expectations of Fed easing, continuous central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar; the baseline scenario for 2026 is mostly “volatile and strong”, but overbuying and policy rhythm changes need to be watched [6][7]. Conclusion: It is a support for the gold business, but not a one-way bullish trend; attention should be paid to the Fed’s policy path and the rhythm of central bank gold purchases
• Lithium: Global lithium supply has expanded rapidly in recent years, with greater short-term overcapacity pressure; in the medium and long term, the differentiation of the cost curve and the rhythm of capacity exit will determine the price center [2]. Conclusion: Profit recovery in the lithium segment depends more on cost advantages and the progress of capacity exit

• Kamoa: Significant high-grade and cost advantages, serving as the “ballast stone” for the copper segment [2]
• Julong Copper Mine: Disclosed that “Julong Copper’s income tax rate is approximately 9%” (subject to the company’s latest announcement) [3]; it is expected to contribute increments after Phase II is put into production
• Serbia: Timok Copper-Gold Mine Project, tax rate is approximately 15% (mentioned in public information) [1]
• Lithium Salt Lake: Argentina 3Q Salt Lake’s “total cost < RMB 35,000/ton” is public information [2]; the actual cost and recovery rate of projects such as Tibet Lagoucuo still need to be verified by feasibility studies and ramp-up

Note: Costs and tax rates are a summary of public information at the project level and do not represent the company’s overall comprehensive cost and effective tax rate; details should be based on the company’s financial statements and project disclosures

• Scenario Assumption Example (Only illustrates the marginal impact of price and production, does not constitute performance forecast):
  • Copper: 2026 production target is 1.26 million tons, average price is RMB 65,000/ton; cost reference is RMB 45,000/ton
  • Gold: Production is 110 tons, average price is RMB 450/g; cost reference is RMB 250/g
  • Lithium: Production is 130,000 tons of LCE, average price is RMB 70,000/ton; cost reference is RMB 40,000/ton
• Under the above pure assumption scenario, the profit calculation result (only for example sensitivity, not a forecast value) may fall in the range of approximately RMB 55-56 billion, but this range is highly dependent on the accuracy of the assumption conditions (price, cost, production and sales rate, exchange rate, expense rate, etc.), and does not include asset impairment, fair value changes, investment gains and losses, income tax adjustments, etc. Currently, the official only disclosed the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2025 as approximately RMB 37.864 billion [3], and the full-year and 2026 net profits are subject to the company’s official financial reports
• Risk Reminder: Profit sensitivity assumptions are highly sensitive to price and cost, and need to superimpose multi-dimensional uncertainties such as exchange rate, geopolitical policy, tariffs, logistics, ESG and compliance costs; please do not regard the “RMB 55-56 billion” as a definite forecast or company guidance

1. Project Progress Uncertainty

• The actual commissioning and ramp-up rhythm of projects such as Julong Copper Mine Phase II, Kamoa expansion, Juno, lithium salt lake are affected by construction, licensing, supply chain and local factors, and there is a possibility of schedule adjustment

2. Price and Policy Risks

• Copper: Changes in tariffs, trade and inventory patterns, and cooling of AI theme sentiment may lead to price fluctuations or even phased corrections
• Gold: The Fed’s policy rhythm, dollar trend, geopolitical cooling or slowdown in central bank gold purchases may bring correction pressure
• Lithium: Mismatch between the rhythm of capacity exit and demand recovery may prolong the bottoming phase

3. Cost and Exchange Rate

• Inflation and grade decline push up mining and processing costs; exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on the profitability of overseas projects; compliance and ESG costs continue to rise

4. Tax and Mergers & Acquisitions

• Adjustments to tax policies in various countries may erode profits; large-scale M&A integration has the risk of synergy falling short of expectations

• Copper Segment: Under the assumption that Julong Phase II progresses as planned and Kamoa continues to ramp up, the 2026 copper production has the potential to reach 1.26 million tons; however, the “specific 2026 target” is not officially disclosed, and the actual achievement rate needs to be closely tracked with the company’s announcements and project progress
• Gold Segment: Capacity expansion continues, but there is uncertainty in achieving the “unofficial target” of 110 tons in 2026, subject to the company’s guidance
• Lithium Segment: Achieving the “2026 target” of 130,000 tons requires the如期 progress of salt lake and African lithium mine projects, and considering market demand and price, the uncertainty is high

• Positive Factors: High copper price prosperity, stable gold demand structure, steady progress of multiple high-grade/low-cost projects, and first three quarters performance verifying growth
• Risk Factors: Mineral product price fluctuations, commissioning and ramp-up rhythm, exchange rate and geopolitical policies, rising costs, changes in tax and compliance environment
• Conclusion: Under the neutral to optimistic assumptions of “volume” and “price”, the company has an objective basis for profit growth in 2025-2026; however, the “certainty” is medium-high rather than absolute. It is necessary to dynamically track copper/gold/lithium prices, project commissioning and cost control, and pay attention to the company’s announcements and macro policies

• Projects: License/construction/commissioning and ramp-up rhythm of Julong Copper Mine Phase II/III, Kamoa expansion, Juno, Lagoucuo, Haiyu Gold Mine, Argentina 3Q, African lithium mine
• Prices: LME/Comex copper, gold price, lithium salt price center and fluctuations
• Company Disclosures: Quarterly/semi-annual/annual production and sales data, segment gross profit margin and cost, cash flow and capital expenditure, M&A progress and tax announcements
• Macro: Fed interest rate path, US dollar index, geopolitical and trade policies, global manufacturing and new energy demand structure

• Current valuation (PE approximately 19x) reflects part of the pricing for growth, but the price center and project progress rhythm will continue to affect the valuation re-rating space
• It is recommended to track with a “verification-driven” mindset: prioritize the key nodes of core projects (commissioning/ramp-up/full production), the improvement of segment profit margins, and the progress of corporate governance and ESG

• The company has officially clarified the production plan “up to 2028”, with a relatively clear project path and resource/cost advantages, but the “2026 production targets” have not been separately confirmed in official announcements and need to be treated with caution
• Profit growth is highly sensitive to both “price” and “volume”. Under the assumptions of neutral to optimistic metal prices and smooth project progress, it has potential, but it is constrained by multi-dimensional uncertainties such as price fluctuations, commissioning rhythm, costs and exchange rates
• Comprehensive Judgment: The “certainty” of whether the 2026 targets can be achieved is “medium-high” rather than “definite”, and needs dynamic verification; the “certainty” of profit growth is also “medium-high”. It is recommended to closely track the progress of core projects and price trends, and refer to the company’s official disclosures

[0] Jinling API Data (Company Overview, Real-time Quotes, Financial Analysis, etc., Acquisition Time: 2025-12-29)
[1] The Paper - “2026 is approaching, what are the plans of international mining giants? (II)” (Retrieval Time: 2025-12-22)
[2] Fortune No. - Zijin Mining Capacity and Resource Volume Sorting (Release Time: 2025-12-24)
[3] Zangge Mining Interactive Platform/Relevant Announcement Summary - Julong Copper Mine Phase II Certificates and Progress (Expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, with annual copper production of approximately 300,000-350,000 tons after reaching full production)
[4] Jinshi Data - “Will Copper Be the Dark Horse of 2026? Supply-Demand Gap and AI Demand Analysis” (Release Time: 2025-12-26)
[5] Sina Finance - Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 Copper Price Forecast (Release Time: 2025-12-16)
[6] Sina Finance - “2026 Outlook: Gold Is Not Easy to Fall Deeply” (Release Time: 2025-12-29)
[7] Fastbull - “2026 Gold Outlook: Targeting $5000?” (Release Time: 2025-12-26)