2026 Container Shipping Industry Investment Value In-Depth Analysis: The Game Between Oversupply and Effective Capacity 'Black Hole'

Based on a comprehensive analysis of supply-demand patterns, geopolitics, and environmental regulations, I judge that

. However, leading enterprises still have investment value relying on scale, cost, and capital advantages. Current valuations are at historical lows, showing characteristics.

(Moderate allocation, non-core position)

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Current global container handheld order volume has reached

, accounting for of existing fleet capacity, the highest since 2009 [1][3]. These orders will be delivered intensively in 2025-2028:

• 2025:
  Capacity supply growth of 6.0% (down from the early-year forecast)
• 2026:
  Capacity supply growth of 3.0%
• 2027:
  Capacity supply growth of 3.5%
• 2028:
  Large container ships (12,000-24,000 TEU) are expected to grow by 20% [1]

Orders are mainly concentrated in large ships of

and , while account for only 4% of order capacity [1]. This leads to:

• Severe oversupply of large ship capacity
• Possible shortage of small ships for regional routes
• Intensified structural differentiation of the fleet

Dock slots of major global shipyards have been scheduled until

, and the new shipbuilding market rebounded comprehensively in the second half of the year [5]. This forms a ‘paradox’:

• On one hand, high handheld orders indicate future supply pressure
• On the other hand, shipowners continue to place orders to seize market share, forming a ‘snowball effect’

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Global container transport demand growth has dropped sharply from

in the 2000s to in the past decade [3]. Core reasons:

• Supply chain regionalization:
  Trade flows shift from ‘Asia-Europe/Americas’ to diversified routes like ‘Asia-Asia’ and ‘Asia-Middle East’
• U.S. tariff policy:
  U.S. tariffs in 2025 led to a 2% drop in海运 imports in Q2, but Southeast Asia became the biggest beneficiary [8]
• Consumption downgrade and inventory adjustment:
  Weak growth in European and American consumer demand, slow inventory turnover

BIMCO predicts that the capacity demand growth rate will be

in both 2026 and 2027 [1], with main driving factors:

• Positive factors:
  Global economic soft landing expectations, rise of manufacturing in India and Southeast Asia
• Negative factors:
  Sustained U.S. tariff policy, sluggish European economy, geopolitical uncertainty

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• Red Sea detour via the Cape of Good Hope absorbs about
  7-9%
  of effective capacity [2]
• The originally expected 13%-14% capacity oversupply is compressed to
  3.5%-4%
  [2]
• Giants like CMA CGM and Maersk have started试探性 resumption of the Suez Canal route [4]

Scenario	Assumptions	Oversupply Rate	Impact on Freight Rates
Base Scenario	Gradual resumption in mid-2026, 50% resumption rate	8%-10%	Drop by 20%-30%
Optimistic Scenario	Sustained geopolitical risks, detour throughout the year	3%-5%	Sideways oscillation
Pessimistic Scenario	Full resumption in early 2026	14%-15%	Drop by40%-50%

• Once the Red Sea resumes navigation,
  6%-7%
  of detour capacity will return to the market instantly [4]
• Combined with new ship deliveries in 2027, the oversupply rate may soar to
  20%
  [2]
• Short-term disturbances like port congestion and rising insurance costs [2][4]

###4.2 Environmental Regulation Constraints: ‘Mandatory Slowdown’ of CII/EEXI

• CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator):
  Forces old ships to slow down or exit the market
• EEXI (Existing Ship Energy Efficiency Index):
  Requires new ships after 2025 to meet stricter energy efficiency standards

• Ship slowdown can absorb
  3%-5%
  of oversupply capacity
• If the speed decreases by 0.25 knots in 2026-2027 respectively, capacity supply will increase by an additional1.2% [1]
• It is expected that
  environmental regulations will lead to about 60% of ships exiting the compliance market by 2030
  [10]

• EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) will be fully implemented in2026, increasing operating costs
• Alternative fuel (methanol, ammonia, LNG) ships are expensive, but infrastructure lags behind [9]

###4.3 Aging Ship Scrapping: Slow Market Clearing

• BIMCO predicts scrapping of
  750,000 TEU
  in2026-2027
• There is an expected
  1.8 million TEU
  gap in pending scrapping capacity [1]

• Ship types below3,000 TEU
  will dominate the scrapping market (accounting for 85% of ships over25 years old) [1]
• Large ships (12,000+ TEU) have insufficient scrapping motivation due to good economics
• Key Risk:
  If actual scrapping volume is lower than forecast, capacity oversupply will further intensify

• Top-left chart
  shows the supply-demand gap narrows in 2026-2027 but widens again in2028 due to concentrated deliveries
• Top-right chart
  quantifies the absorption effect of the ‘three forces’ on effective capacity, totaling about14%
• Bottom-left chart
  shows the impact of Red Sea resumption on capacity oversupply, which may reach the 20% warning line in 2027
• Bottom-right chart
  is the investment value evaluation matrix, with valuation level (9 points) significantly higher than other dimensions

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###5.1 Current Status of Freight Rate Indices (December2025)

Index	Latest Value	Month-on-Month Change	Year-on-Year Change	Trend
CCFI Composite Index	1,146.67	+2.0%	-24.3%	Four consecutive rises [8]
SCFI Composite Index	1,656.32	+6.7%	-32.7%	Rebound after two consecutive drops [8]
European Route	1,519.06	+3.1%	-33.2%	Price support during contract season [8]
West US Route	788.12	-0.5%	-20.9%	Weak demand [8]

###5.2 2026 Freight Rate Forecast

Based on the supply-demand balance model, I predict that freight rates in2026 will show a

trend:

• Q1-Q2:
  Relatively firm freight rates (Red Sea detour not fully recovered)
• Q3-Q4:
  Freight rates under pressure to decline (new ship deliveries + resumption impact)
• Full-year average:
  Drop by
  20%-30%
  compared to2025

###5.3 Industry Profitability Differentiation

• Can still maintain
  10%-15%
  net profit margin relying on scale effect and long-term contract cargo ratio
• Abundant cash flow to survive the cycle trough

• Face cash flow断裂 risk
• May be merged or exit the market

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###6.1 Valuation Analysis (December29,2025)

Indicator	Hong Kong Stock (1919.HK)	A-Shares (601919.SS)	Evaluation
Stock Price	13.91 HKD	15.21 CNY	-
P/E (TTM)	6.19x	4.83x	Historical low
P/B	1.01x	-	Near net-breaking edge
ROE	16.14%	-	High quality
Net Profit Margin	16.78%	-	Strong profitability
Dividend Yield	~6%	-	High dividend

Current valuation has fully reflected pessimistic expectations, , with sufficient safety margin. But need to警惕 profit decline risk in2026-2027.

###6.2 Financial Health Analysis

According to financial analysis tool data [0]:

• Cash Flow:
  2024 free cash flow reached 43.3 billion USD, showing significant cash cow characteristics
• Debt Risk:
  Low risk category, sound balance sheet
• Financial Attitude:
  Neutral, conservative and moderate accounting policies

###6.3 Competitive Advantages

1. Scale Advantage:
   One of the world’s largest container fleets, unit cost lower than industry average
2. Network Advantage:
   Perfect layout of ports, logistics, end-to-end services
3. Capital Advantage:
   Abundant cash flow to resist industry troughs and acquire high-quality assets
4. Central Enterprise Background:
   High strategic importance and strong policy support

###6.4 Key Risk Factors

• Red Sea resumption may lead to 6%-7% of detour capacity return [2][4]
• If fully resumed in early2026, freight rates may drop by 40%-50%

• EU ETS, CII/EEXI push up operating costs [9][10]
• Huge investment in green ships with long return cycle

• Linerlytica predicts that ‘the real price war may have just begun’ [3]
• Giants seize market share, small and medium carriers face survival crisis

• Sustained U.S. tariff policy, sluggish European economy
• AI bubble burst may lead to global economic chain reaction [1]

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###7.1 Allocation Advice: Moderate Underweight, Wait for Inflection Point

(Non-core position)

• Current (End of2025):
  Can establish a10% observation position with sufficient valuation safety margin
• Q12026:
  If the Red Sea crisis continues, can increase position to 20%
• Q2-Q32026:
  Closely monitor Red Sea resumption progress; if full resumption signals appear, reduce position timely
• 2027:
  Wait for the peak of capacity delivery to pass, look for medium-to-long-term buying points

###7.2 Target Selection

• Reasons: Lowest valuation, strongest cash flow, central enterprise background, high dividend

• Reasons: Global network layout, leading in environmental transformation

• Reasons: High price war risk, fragile capital chain

###7.3 Exit Strategy

• Red Sea crisis continues to ferment, freight rates rise beyond expectations
• Industry integration accelerates, leading share increases

• Full resumption of Red Sea navigation, freight rates drop by over30% in a single month
• Global trade falls into recession, cargo volume negative growth for two consecutive quarters

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###8.1 Accelerated Industry Clearing and Integration

The next three years will be the most important structural inflection point in the past two decades [3]:

• The strong get stronger:
  Leading enterprises control larger market share through scale, network, and capital advantages
• Survival of the fittest:
  Small and medium carriers are forced to exit or be merged
• Alliance restructuring:
  Existing 2M, Ocean Alliance, THE Alliance may disintegrate and restructure

###8.2 Green Transformation Becomes New Moat

• Green premium:
  Methanol and ammonia fuel ships can charge higher freight rates
• Compliance cost:
  Old ships that fail to meet standards are forced to scrap or slow down
• Technical barrier:
  Enterprises with green fleets will gain long-term competitive advantages

###8.3 Supply Chain Diversification Brings New Opportunities

• Regional trade:
  Demand growth for regional routes like intra-Asia and Middle East-Africa
• Multimodal transport:
  Alternative solutions like China-Europe Railway Express and Arctic Route divert part of capacity [6]
• End-to-end services:
  Integrated logistics, port, and warehousing services become differentiated competitive advantages

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###9.1 Key Observation Indicators (2026)

• CCFI/SCFI freight rate index trend
• Number of ships passing through the Red Sea (current 120 ships/month vs 583 ships/month before crisis) [4]
• New ship delivery progress
• Aging ship scrapping volume

• Global container capacity supply-demand gap
• Load factor of major liner companies
• Industry concentration change

###9.2 Three Major Uncertainties

1. Geopolitics:
   When will the Red Sea crisis end? Will new waterway conflicts occur?
2. Environmental policy:
   How strong is the implementation of IMO greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy? Will carbon costs exceed expectations?
3. Global economy:
   Will the U.S. economy soft land? Will the AI bubble burst?

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###10.1 Core View Reiteration

In 2026, the container shipping industry will face triple pressures of

, and the industry will probably enter a downward cycle. But:

1. Valuation has fully reflected pessimistic expectations
   , with leading companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings having P/E only 4-6x
2. Effective capacity ‘black hole’ still exists
   , with Red Sea detour, environmental regulations, and scrapping absorbing about14% of capacity
3. Industry concentration increases
   , leading enterprises are expected to survive the cycle

###10.2 Investment Value Rating

• Short-term (6 months):
  Neutral to bearish, wait-and-see为主
• Medium-term (1-2 years):
  Cautious to bullish, layout leading enterprises at low prices
• Long-term (3-5 years):
  Recommend, industry clearing leads to optimized structure

###10.3 Final Advice for Investors

The container shipping industry is a

industry, requiring strong timing ability and risk tolerance. For ordinary investors, it is recommended:

1. Control position:
   Do not exceed 10% of the portfolio
2. Long-term perspective:
   Hold for 3-5 years to survive the complete cycle
3. Dynamic adjustment:
   Closely track key indicators like Red Sea resumption, freight rate trend, new ship delivery
4. Choose leading enterprises:
   Central enterprises like COSCO Shipping Holdings have the strongest risk resistance ability

In the

, whoever can better control costs, optimize networks, and respond to environmental regulations will occupy a favorable position in the future industry structure reshaping.

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[0] Jinling API Data - COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK/601919.SS) real-time quotes, company overview, financial analysis, historical price data

[1] China Shipping Weekly - “When Will Ships Return to the Suez Canal to Dominate Future Expectations of the Container Shipping Market” (December26,2025)
https://news.csi.com.cn/bc9f4dd5-c9a3-4012-b9c1-f1534930e489.html

[2] NetEase News - “Red Sea Resumption Has Become a Reality, May Change the Container Shipping Market Structure” (December22,2025)
https://www.163.com/dy/article/KHSTR4160514C1PI.html

[3] NetEase/ Xinde Maritime - “Knowing Capacity Oversupply, Why Are Major Container Shipping Companies Still Crazy About Building Ships?” (December22,2025)
https://www.163.com/dy/article/KHDCHDNB0514C1PI.html

[4] Sina Finance - “Red Sea Resumption Cautiously” (December22,2025)
https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-22/doc-inhcsvvh1470253.shtml

[5] Sohu Finance - “Everyone Is Snatching Ship Slots: Global New Shipbuilding Market Rebounds Comprehensively in the Second Half of2025”
https://www.sohu.com/a/969696810_175033

[6] 36Kr - “Farewell to Malacca, China-Europe + Arctic Route: How to Help China Break Through Maritime Hegemony?”
https://m.36kr.com/p/3579492228971400

[7] Shanghai Shipping Exchange - C