Zijin Mining (601899.SS) In-Depth Analysis: Sustainability of Multi-Metal Production Growth and 2026 100 Billion Profit Expectation

Zijin Mining’s current stock price is 32.65 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 866.3 billion yuan. From the beginning of 2024 to now, the stock price has increased by about 163%, showing an outstanding performance [0]. The company’s ROE reaches 30.6%, net profit margin is 13.91%, with excellent profitability [0]. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved operating revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 37.864 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.45% [0][2].

• Figure 1: Zijin Mining’s stock price trend from 2024 to 2025, current price is 32.65 yuan, up 163% year-to-date
• Figure 2: Precious metal price trend (Jan 2024-Dec 2025), both gold and silver prices have risen significantly
• Figure 3: Production growth forecast of major mineral products (2025-2026), lithium expansion is the most aggressive

According to web search disclosures, the company’s main production plans and growth for 2025-2026 are as follows [1][2]:

Mineral Type	2025 Output	2026 Output	Growth Rate
Copper (10k tons)	110	128	+16.4%
Gold (tons)	90	110	+22.2%
Silver (tons)	450	630	+40.0%
Lithium (10k tons LCE)	2.2	13	+491%

• Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine: Continuous expansion, high grade (4.3%-6%), significant cost advantage. Expected to reach 600k tons/year in 2026 and plan for 800k tons/year in the long term [3][5].
• Julong Copper Mine Phase II: 200k tons/day mining and processing, put into production at the end of 2025; long-term plan for Phase III to 600k tons/year [3].
• Risk points: Overseas power and logistics, policy changes in resource countries, construction progress, etc. [1][3].

• New acquisition projects (e.g., RG, Akim, Arena) and technical transformation expansion (Shuiyindong, Suriname, Guyana Underground Mining Phase I) contribute to increments [1].
• Haiyu Gold Mine is expected to start production in mid-2026, contributing output gradually during the ramp-up phase [1][2].
• Bograra Gold Mine’s resumption brings equity increments, with annual output ramping up to 21 tons (24.5% equity) [1].

• Argentina 3Q Salt Lake: Phase I 50k tons has been put into production, long-term plan to 200k tons/year, cost in the global first tier [3][5].
• Tibet Lagoucuo Salt Lake: Put into production in 2025, planned 150k tons/year [3].
• Risk points: Lithium price fluctuations, salt lake lithium extraction technology and operational stability, overseas project progress rhythm [1][8].

• Silver is associated with lead-zinc, growing with Julong expansion.
• Molybdenum is mainly associated with Julong; Shapinggou independent molybdenum mine (high grade) is planned to start production in 2029, further enhancing long-term supply [2][3].

• Historical execution: Zijin has strong execution in investment, construction and production ramp-up of large domestic and overseas copper-gold projects (e.g., Kamoa, Timok, Wulidika) [3][5].
• Cost advantage: Kamoa copper mine cost is about 18k USD/ton, in the global first tier; salt lake lithium extraction cost <35k yuan/ton, significant profit elasticity in lithium price upward cycle [3][8].
• Tax environment: The company’s overall income tax rate is about17%, Julong copper mine ~9%, Serbia ~15%, significantly lower than some peers (e.g., CMOC ~38%), which is beneficial to maintain net profit margin [1].

The 2026 production target has high achievability, but need to pay attention to potential impacts of overseas projects (power, logistics, policy) and lithium price fluctuations.

• LME copper price recently reported around 11697-12276 USD/ton, up nearly30% year-to-date [6][7].
• Institutional expectations (web search):
  • JPMorgan: ~12500 USD/ton in Q2 2026, annual average ~12075 USD/ton [6][7].
  • Citi: May reach13000 USD/ton in next6-12 months; bull scenario may challenge15000 USD/ton in2026 [6].
  • Goldman Sachs: Relatively cautious,预计2026 may be in10000-11000 USD/ton range [7].
• Drivers: Mine accidents, geopolitics and tariffs, structural demand growth from AI data centers/new energy electrification [6][7].

• Lithium carbonate futures recently broke through130k yuan/ton, low point this year ~58k yuan, up over90% [8].
• Research views (web search): 2026 price center is expected to move up, supply-demand may tend to tight balance, but short-term high volatility risk exists; expected range ~80k-120k yuan/ton [8].
• For Zijin: Salt lake lithium extraction projects with obvious cost advantages will contribute high profit elasticity in price upward cycle [3][8].

• International gold price rose about47.2% in first three quarters of2025 (financial media statistics) [2].
• Pricing logic change: Switch from “real interest rate anchor” to “USD credit hedge”, supported by central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand [2].

###3.2 Profit Elasticity of Price and Production

• Copper: Volume and price increase is one of core drivers. Assuming copper price center rises in2026 and production grows as scheduled, copper sector profit is expected to increase significantly.
• Gold: Obvious volume-price resonance. If gold price remains high and production grows, gold sector’s profit contribution will further increase [2].
• Lithium: Price center rise plus production jump will bring considerable profit elasticity, but need to警惕 high volatility and uncertainty of capacity release rhythm [8].

###4.1 Consensus Expectation and Optimistic Scenario

Web search shows institutional forecast center for Zijin’s2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is about62.78 billion yuan (up ~15% from previous expectation) [1]. This assumption is usually based on a compromise between neutral price and production target.

Web analysis points out, if assuming gold price5000 USD/oz, LME copper12500 USD/ton, lithium price120k yuan/ton, and production and cost of each mineral are well realized,2026 net profit is expected to approach100 billion yuan; corresponding to current market capitalization valuation of ~15x PE, which is not excessive [1][2].

###4.2 Profit Calculation Logic

Based on calculation framework summarized from web search [1][2]:

• Relationship between pre-tax profit and net profit attributable to shareholders:
  Historical rules show net profit attributable to shareholders is about half of pre-tax profit.
• Equity income and participating company increments:
  Profits of holding companies (e.g., Zangge, Longjing) and participating companies (Ivanhoe, Zhaojin, Wanguo, etc.) will increase significantly with metal price rise.
• Non-recurring income:
  Company holds a large number of listed company shares with several times floating profit, which can contribute sustainable non-recurring income.
• Tax and regional advantages:
  Projects in low-tax regions like Julong copper mine (~9% income tax), Serbia (~15%) help improve net profit margin [1].

###4.3 Key Assumptions and Uncertainties

• Gold price above5000 USD/oz, LME copper above12500 USD/ton, lithium price above120k yuan/ton [1][2].
• Key projects reach production on schedule, copper 1280k tons, gold110 tons, silver630 tons, lithium 130k tons production targets are realized.
• Cost control capability remains leading, unit net profit maintains global first tier [3][8].

• Windfall tax/tax rate changes: Some resource countries may increase tax rates or impose windfall taxes, compressing profit margins [1][3].
• Price retracement: If copper, lithium, gold and silver prices fall from high levels, profit elasticity will be significantly affected [6][7][8].
• Project production falls short of expectations: Overseas power, logistics, construction cycle, resource country policies may affect production rhythm [1][3].
• Macro and demand: Global economic growth rate, new energy penetration rate, AI data center construction rhythm affect demand side [6][7].

According to DCF scenario valuation provided by brokerage API [0]:

Scenario	Fair Value	Relative to Current Stock Price
Conservative	32.49 yuan	-0.5%
Benchmark	38.54 yuan	+18.0%
Optimistic	60.39 yuan	+85.0%

• Conservative: Revenue growth0%, EBITDA Margin13.9%, terminal growth 2%, WACC ~14.8%.
• Benchmark: Revenue growth15.4%, EBITDA Margin14.6%, terminal growth2.5%, WACC ~11.9%.
• Optimistic: Revenue growth21.2%, EBITDA Margin15.4%, terminal growth3.0%, WACC ~10.8%.

If the company evolves towards the “benchmark to optimistic” scenario performance growth (similar to the100 billion expectation scenario), the current valuation has certain safety margin and upside space.

###6.1 Core Conclusions

1. Sustainability of multi-metal production growth: High
   • Copper, gold, silver, lithium production plans rely on global top resources and mature project echelon, with significant execution capability and cost advantages.
   • 2026 copper1280k tons, gold110 tons, lithium130k tons production targets have high achievability, lithium sector has the largest elasticity.
   • Key variables: Overseas project construction rhythm, resource country policies and infrastructure, lithium price and cost control.

2. 2026 100 billion profit expectation: Significant scenario differences
   • Consensus expectation:
     ~62.78 billion yuan, corresponding to2026E PE ~15x (neutral price and production assumptions).
   • Optimistic scenario:
     If gold, copper, lithium prices remain high and projects reach production on schedule, net profit is expected to approach100 billion yuan, corresponding to current market capitalization valuation ~15x PE (based on 866.3 billion yuan market capitalization) [0][1].
   • Conclusion:
     The100 billion expectation is an optimistic scenario, which needs to be supported by favorable prices or more than expected production and cost performance; the current more robust expectation center is still in the range of60-65 billion yuan.

###6.2 Investment Suggestions

• Long-term optimistic:
  Company has outstanding advantages in resources, cost, global layout and execution capability; gold/copper/lithium price upward cycle will amplify profit elasticity.
• Short-term rhythm:
  Pay attention to metal price trends and project production verification in Q42025/Q12026;警惕 lithium price high retracement and overseas project progress risks.
• Valuation perspective:
  If the company evolves towards the “benchmark to optimistic” scenario, current valuation is attractive; if prices and projects fall short of expectations, valuation will be under pressure.

###6.3 Main Risks

1. Price risk:
   Copper, lithium, gold and silver prices retrace sharply.
2. Project risk:
   Overseas projects fail to reach production as expected (power supply, logistics, policy).
3. Policy risk:
   Windfall tax, tax rate increase, environmental protection and community policy changes.
4. Operational risk:
   Overseas geopolitics, exchange rate, safety and cost overruns.
5. Market risk:
   Macro cycle fluctuations and sentiment disturbances.

[0] Gilin API Data: Company overview, real-time quotes, financial analysis, DCF valuation, stock price and precious metal price data
[1] Xueqiu - 100 billion profit next year? Detailed discussion on Zijin Mining’s production plan and profit calculation (https://xueqiu.com/1641200866/367988583)
[2] Sina Finance - Gold stocks enter the golden age (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-14/doc-inhaukmc3271978.shtml)
[3] Eastmoney Fortune - Zijin Mining focuses on copper + gold + lithium, supplemented by zinc, lead, silver, molybdenum, etc. (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251224100622315257300)
[4] Tonghuahsun F10 - Zijin Mining profit forecast (https://basic.10jqka.com.cn/601899/worth.html)
[5] Sina Finance - The end of computing power is electricity, the end of electricity is copper (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-12/doc-inhapwfi5130162.shtml)
[6] Mitrade - Copper price breaks through12200 USD to new high! Will it rise to15000 USD in2026? (https://www.mitrade.com/cn/insights/commodity-analysis/more/20251226A02C)
[7] Phoenix Net -2025 Copper Market Year-end Review: Supply Imbalance and Structural Demand Reshape Pricing Logic (https://i.ifeng.com/c/8pA8YiAhX3g)
[8] Huatai Futures - Capital enthusiasm bursts, lithium carbonate price breaks through two-year high (https://www.xincai.com/article/nhemqas7959897)

This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.