Analysis of the Reasons for Yili Group's (600887.SH) Popularity and Investment Value

As a leading food and beverage company in the A-share market, Yili Group (600887.SH) has recently become a popular stock, with core driving factors summarized in three aspects:

1. Favorable Industry Policies
   : The Ministry of Commerce has imposed temporary anti-subsidy measures ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on certain imported dairy products from the EU starting December 23, 2025 [2]. EU-related products account for approximately 20.7% of the domestic import market, and domestic production costs are lower. This measure will promote domestic solid dairy product enterprises to replace imported shares, and Yili Group, as an industry leader, will directly benefit [2].

2. High Dividends and Solid Fundamentals
   : The company announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years, with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% and a minimum dividend per share of 1.22 yuan (including tax), corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on the current stock price, significantly enhancing investment attractiveness [3]. In the first three quarters, the company’s total operating revenue was 90.564 billion yuan (+1.81%), and non-recurring net profit was 10.103 billion yuan (+18.73%), with continuous improvement in profit quality [3].

3. Institutional Optimism and Stock Price Performance
   : Huaxi Securities listed it as the “best stable allocation variety” and expects the long-term annualized return to reach more than 10% [3]. In terms of stock price, it previously achieved seven consecutive positive days, reaching a high of 29.32 yuan per share, approaching the annual high, with strong technical performance [3].

1. Balance Between Defensiveness and Growth
   : In the current weak-cycle market environment, Yili Group’s high dividend yield (about 5%) has strong defensiveness, while the steady growth of revenue and profits endows it with growth, which meets the allocation needs of institutions and long-term investors [3][0].

2. Resonance Between Policy and Market Sentiment
   : After the announcement of the anti-subsidy measures, the stock price quickly achieved seven consecutive positive days, indicating that favorable policy factors and market sentiment resonated, and capital attention increased significantly [1][3].

3. Valuation and Performance Matching
   : The current price-earnings ratio is less than 17 times, lower than the industry average. Combined with the dividend commitment, the valuation is attractive; however, it should be noted that institutions’ consensus forecast is that the net profit growth rate will drop to 8.36% next year, and the valuation repair space may be limited [3].

1. Policy Implementation Risk
   : The actual effect of the anti-subsidy measures depends on the capacity release of domestic enterprises and the speed of market substitution. If EU products enter the market through other channels, the favorable effect may weaken [0].
2. Uncertainty in Consumption Recovery
   : The dairy industry is greatly affected by consumer demand. If domestic consumption recovery is lower than expected, the company’s revenue growth may slow down [0].
3. Valuation Correction Pressure
   : If the dividend commitment cannot be sustained or performance is lower than expected, the valuation may face correction pressure [3].

1. The import substitution opportunity brought by the anti-subsidy measures is expected to promote the growth of the company’s solid dairy product business [2].
2. The high dividend yield attracts long-term investors and enhances stock price stability [3].

Yili Group (600887.SH) has recently become a popular stock mainly driven by favorable industry policies, high dividend commitments, and solid fundamentals. The stock price is approaching its annual high, and institutions are optimistic about its defensiveness and growth, but attention should be paid to risks such as policy implementation, consumption recovery, and valuation correction. Investors should combine their own risk preferences and investment horizons to rationally evaluate the investment value of this stock.