Silver Price Correction: 6%+ Intraday Drop After 2025 Historic Rally

This analysis is based on the Forbes report [1] published on December 29, 2025, documenting a sharp correction in silver prices following a historic rally. On the same day, silver hit an intraday record high of approximately $83.62/oz [2] before correcting by more than 6% intraday (peaking at 11% on COMEX) [6]. The 2025 rally, which had driven a 181% year-to-date gain (pre-correction), was fueled by supply constraints, strong industrial demand (for EVs and solar panels), and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3].

The correction was triggered by multiple factors: a 13.6% CME margin hike for March 2026 silver futures contracts (the second hike in 14 days) [9], low holiday trading volumes that amplified price swings [4], and profit-taking after the record high [2]. By the close, COMEX silver futures settled at $75.07/oz (a 4.29% drop from the previous Friday’s close), with COMEX intraday lows reaching $73.71/oz [5]. MCX silver prices in India also fell 8% intraday [6].

The correction spilled over to related assets: silver mining stocks like Hindustan Zinc (Vedanta Group), Coeur Mining, and Pan American Silver dropped intraday, while other precious metals (gold, platinum, palladium) also declined [2], [7].

1. Low-Volume Vulnerability
   : The holiday period’s thin liquidity significantly amplified the correction, highlighting how low-volume environments can exaggerate price movements in heavily rallied assets [4].
2. Regulatory Impact
   : The CME’s margin hike signals regulatory concern over speculative excess, demonstrating how such actions can quickly reverse market momentum [9].
3. Dual Asset Correlations
   : Silver’s role as both an industrial and safe-haven asset creates strong price correlations with other precious metals and mining stocks, as seen in the synchronous decline of gold, platinum, and silver mining equities [2], [7].
4. Long-Term Momentum Test
   : The correction marks the first major test of silver’s 2025 breakout momentum. Despite the pullback, analysts forecast potential upside to $100/oz in 2026 under favorable conditions (sustained industrial demand, supply deficits, Fed rate cuts) [8].

• Regulatory Intervention
  : The CME’s consecutive margin hikes raise the risk of further corrections, as higher entry costs may deter speculative participation [9].
• Thin Volume Volatility
  : The ongoing holiday period’s low liquidity increases the likelihood of exaggerated price swings in either direction [4].
• Policy Uncertainty
  : Upcoming Federal Reserve minutes (December 31, 2025) could alter rate cut expectations, impacting precious metals demand [2].
• Unpriced Supply Factors
  : The full impact of China’s proposed 2026 silver export restrictions (a key rally driver) remains unpriced, creating potential future volatility [3].

• Sustained Industrial Demand
  : EV and solar panel manufacturing trends continue to drive long-term silver demand, supporting potential price rebounds [3].
• Favorable Macro Conditions
  : Supply deficits and Fed rate cuts could reignite rally momentum in 2026, aligning with bullish analyst forecasts [8].

This summary presents data-driven context for decision-making without prescriptive investment recommendations.