Analysis of Investment Payback Period for CATL's Three Major Overseas Projects

Based on public information, the total investment scale of CATL’s three overseas production bases is approximately 136.7 billion RMB [1][2]:

• Investment
  : 1.8 billion euros (≈14.9 billion RMB)
• Capacity
  : 14 GWh
• Status
  : Already in production and profitable

• Investment
  : 7.3 billion euros (≈60.4 billion RMB)
• Capacity
  : 100 GWh
• Status
  : Phase I is expected to start production in early 2026, total construction period not exceeding 64 months

• Investment
  : 4.1 billion euros (≈33.9 billion RMB)
• Capacity
  : 50 GWh
• Status
  : Planned to start production at the end of 2026

Although there is no publicly available specific calculation data on the investment payback period, it can be evaluated from the following aspects:

• The German factory, as the first overseas project, has achieved profitable operation, verifying the feasibility of the business model for overseas projects

• CATL’s overseas business gross profit margin reached 29.45% in 2024, significantly higher than the domestic business’s 22.25% [1]
• Higher gross profit margins in overseas markets help shorten the investment payback period

• Considering that battery factories usually require 1-2 years of capacity ramp-up period
• The Hungarian and Spanish factories are expected to start production in 2026, and stable profitability is expected in 2027-2028

• Based on CATL’s profitability of approximately 110 million RMB per GWh [3]
• The three projects have a total capacity of 164 GWh, with an annual profit of approximately 18 billion RMB
• The static investment payback period is about 7-8 years

• The proportion of overseas revenue increased from 4.37% in 2019 to 30.48% in 2024 [1]
• The European electric vehicle market continues to grow, ensuring order demand

Considering the profit verification of the German factory, the higher gross profit margin in overseas markets, and the development potential of the European market, the expected investment payback period for CATL’s three major overseas projects is about 7-8 years. Considering that the projects are built in three phases, the actual payback period may vary depending on the production progress of each phase. As a pioneering project, the successful operation of the German factory provides an important reference for the subsequent Hungarian and Spanish projects.

[1] Nanfang Daily - “Can CATL Make a Splendid Transformation?” (https://epaper.nfnews.com/m/ipaper/nfrb/html/202505/23/content_10136284.html)

[2] Time Weekly - “Power Battery Overseas Expansion is Fierce: Planned Capacity Exceeds 400 GWh” (https://time-weekly.com/wap-article/324628)

[3] East Money - “CATL’s Layout in Overseas Energy Storage Field is Significant” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251202100812322969840)