Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Investment Allocation

Based on current market data [0], technical analysis reports [0], sector performance data [0], and web search sources [1][2][3], this systematic analysis focuses on the impact of U.S.-Russia relations and the Ukraine situation on three major asset categories (energy, defense, and safe-haven assets).

• Gold ETF (GLD) full-year trend: Opened at $244.22 on January 2, 2025, closed at $398.39 on December 29, with an interval gain of approximately 63.13%; annual high of $418.45 [0]
• GLD technical analysis: Latest close at $398.39, trend judged as “sideways/volatile”, Beta=0.49 (relative to SPY), support/resistance range approximately $395.00–$401.78 [0]
• Silver ETF (SLV) real-time quote: $64.91, daily change -8.74% ($71.12→$64.91) [0]

• Energy ETF (XLE) full-year trend: Opened at $43.18 on January 2, 2025, closed at $44.60 on December 29, with an interval gain of approximately 3.30%; annual range of $37.24–$47.41 [0]
• Crude Oil ETF (USO) real-time quote: $69.69, daily change +1.77% [0]
• Sector performance (daily): Energy +0.5775%, the best-performing sector [0]

• LMT (Lockheed Martin) full-year trend: Opened at $485.94 on January 2, 2025, closed at $488.73 on December 29, interval gain approx 0.57% [0]; technical analysis “sideways/volatile”, KDJ shows “overbought warning”, RSI “overbought risk”, P/E approx 26.99 [0]; real-time quote $488.52, daily change +1.14% [0]
• RTX (Raytheon Technologies) real-time quote: $184.74, daily change -0.23%, P/E approx 37.93 [0]
• NOC (Northrop Grumman) real-time quote: $579.43, daily change +0.36%, P/E approx 20.87 [0]

• In 2025, Trump met Putin in Alaska (August), and combined with the meeting with Zelensky in Florida (December), the U.S. proposed peace plans such as “15-year security guarantees” [1][2]
• The EU extended the freeze on Russian assets to continuously support Ukraine [2]
• The above dynamics increase the short-term “easing expectation”, but long-term uncertainty remains

• Safe-haven assets: Capital flows in when geopolitical tensions rise; if substantial easing or risk premium correction occurs, volatility increases and profit-taking rises [3]
• Energy: Conflicts or sanctions intensify supply constraints→oil price revision upward; if negotiations advance and ease supply concerns→volatility downward or slowed revision slope [3]
• Defense: Geopolitical tensions or expected growth in military spending raise expectations for demand and orders; valuation is significantly affected by policy rhythm and on visibility of orders [2]

• Gold ETF (GLD): Approx +63.13% [0]
• Energy ETF (XLE): Approx +3.30% [0]
• Defense leader LMT: Approx +0.57% [0]

• S&P500 (^GSPC): Interval gain approx +2.65% [0]
• Nasdaq (^IXIC): Approx +2.42% [0]
• Dow Jones (^DJI): Approx +4.07% [0]

• Energy +0.5775% (leading) [0]
• Financial Services -0.45725%, Healthcare -0.54454%, etc. under pressure [0]

Note: No specific weight range is given, only directional and structural ideas are provided; specific position ratios should be dynamically adjusted based on personal risk tolerance and rebalance rules.

• Strategy tone: As a “tail risk hedge” and diversification tool for investment portfolios, gradually layout on pullbacks and avoid chasing ups [3]
• Tool selection: Centered on GLD, can be combined with SLV to enhance flexibility; derivatives/micro-contracts can be used for short-term hedging and band operations [3]
• Risk points: Increased volatility, significant short-term profit-taking pressure (example: SLV daily -8.74%) [0]; if geopolitical easing or “reflation” rises, interest rates and U.S. bond yields rising may depress precious metals [3]

• Strategy tone: Geopolitics provides bottom support, but constrained by the game on supply and demand sides, it is more structural/event-driven opportunities rather than trend beta
• Target selection: XLE has wide coverage, suitable for grasping sector beta; USO is used for direct expression of oil price exposure [0]
• Risk points: Weaker macro demand and OPEC+ supply adjustment rhythm may lead to the downward shift in oil price center, need to closely track inventory, refinery operation and export data [3]

• Strategy tone: Long-term demand logic is stable, but short-term valuation and emotion are crowded, prefer targets with better valuation and order visibility, strictly implement risk control and rebalancing [2]
• Target selection:
  Balance valuation and volatility: NOC’s P/E of approx 20.87 is better than LMT and RTX, valuation is relatively more friendly [0]
  Headup exposure: LMT and RTX have high order resilience in missile systems, fighter jets and air defense fields, but need to pay attention to technical overbuy and increased volatility [0][2]
• Risk points: Fiscal appropriation rhythm and geopolitical changes may lead to order and valuation reassessment; individual stock volatility and overbuy signals suggest controlling positions and profit-taking discipline [0][2]

• Expected impact: Safe-haven premium shrinks→precious metals under pressure; energy price volatility downward or slowed revision slope; defense order growth slows but long-term safety expenditure remains resilient [2][3]
• Allocation advice: Moderately reduce precious metal exposure, focus on structural opportunities on the energy supply side and targets with reasonable valuation and higher order certainty in the defense sector

• Expected impact: Safe-haven buying strengthens→precious metals rise; energy supply constraints→oil price revision upward; defense order and expenditure expectations rise [1][2][3]
• Allocation advice: Increase safe-haven asset and defense exposure, participate in the energy sector in event-driven manner and control maturity

• Expected impact: Precious metals are supported by declining real interest rates; defense benefits from policy and financial support; energy is driven by demand recovery [3]
• Allocation advice: Under the premise of strictly controlling volatility, moderately increase allocation to gold, select defense and energy targets, form cross-asset diversification

• Gold has significant short-term volatility (SLV daily -8.74%), high risk of chasing ups, should layout in batches/on pullbacks [0]
• Defense sector has technical overbuy warning (LMT KDJ/RSI), need strict stop-loss and control position concentration [0]
• Energy sector is more affected by macro demand and supply-side game, strong event-driven attribute, should not heavily invest in single exposure [3]
• Continue to track three dynamic aspects: Progress of U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations, changes in sanctions and energy export policies, rhythm of U.S. fiscal and defense budget approval [1][2][3]

[1] Fox News — “Trump’s peace through strength in 2025: where wars stopped and rivals came to the table”
https://www.foxnews.com/world/trumps-peace-through-strength-2025-where-wars-stopped-rivals-came-table

[2] Bloomberg — “Russia will be paying for its war on Ukraine long after it ends”; “EU extends freeze on Russian assets…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-18/russia-will-be-paying-for-its-war-on-ukraine-long-after-it-ends
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-12/eu-finds-pathway-to-freeze-russian-assets-for-longer-to-aid-kyiv

[3] Yahoo Finance (Hong Kong) — “After the 60% surge of gold in turbulent times, is 2026 a bubble or a new starting point?”; WGC “2026 Gold Outlook” three scenarios
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/亂世黃金狂飆60-之後-2026是泡沫還是新起點-透視多空交到下的關鍵變數-004002008.html

[0] Jinling API data (real-time quotes, daily line quotes, technical analysis, market indices and sector performance, etc.)