Can Hang Seng Tech Replace Nasdaq as a Next-Decade Long-Bull Investment Option?

Based on professional brokerage data and in-depth market analysis, I will provide a systematic and comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions including

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Indicator	Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033.HK)	Nasdaq ETF (QQQ)	Difference
Current Price	$5.37	$621.30	-
P/E Ratio	20.30	34.21	Hang Seng Tech is 40.6% cheaper
52-Week Range	$4.09 - $6.59	$402.39 - $637.01	-
Beta Coefficient	0.24	1.19	Low correlation between Hang Seng Tech and US stocks
Market Cap	$44.71B	$408.08B	-

• Hang Seng Tech is significantly undervalued
  : P/E ratio is only 20.30, which is
  40.6% cheaper
  than Nasdaq’s 34.21 [0]
• Low Beta characteristic
  : Hang Seng Tech’s Beta is only 0.24, with extremely low correlation to the S&P500, having
  diversification allocation value
  [0]

According to my calculated data from January 2023 to December 2025 [0]:

Indicator	Hang Seng Tech	Nasdaq	Winner
Total Return	28.72%	134.96%	Nasdaq (+106%)
Annualized Return	8.82%	33.11%	Nasdaq
Max Drawdown	-37.90%	-22.88%	Nasdaq (lower risk)
Sharpe Ratio	0.34	1.39	Nasdaq (better risk-adjusted return)

• Over the past three years, Nasdaq has
  comprehensively outperformed
  Hang Seng Tech in terms of absolute returns, volatility control, and risk-adjusted returns
• Hang Seng Tech’s
  high volatility
  (max drawdown of nearly 38%) is significantly higher than Nasdaq’s (23%) [0]

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The Hang Seng Tech Index covers the 30 largest tech enterprises in the Hong Kong stock market, with main components including:

• Internet leaders
  : Tencent Holdings (0700.HK), Alibaba-SW (09988.HK), Meituan-W (03690.HK)
• Emerging tech
  : Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK), Kuaishou-W (01024.HK), JD Group-SW (09618.HK)
• Hard tech
  : SMIC (00981.HK), Sunny Optical Tech (02382.HK)

: Since 2023, cumulative increase has reached 88.03%, far exceeding the overall performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index [0], showing alpha opportunities in leading stocks.

1. Extremely low valuation
   : Current P/E ratio is only 20.30, compared to Nasdaq’s 34.21, there is
   significant valuation repair space
   [0]

2. Policy bottom passed
   : The strict regulatory cycle of 2021-2022 has ended, and the policy environment has shifted to support platform economic development

3. Earnings recovery
   : Profitability of internet leaders has recovered, and companies like Tencent and Alibaba have increased share repurchase efforts

4. Geopolitical hedge
   : Low correlation with US stocks (Beta 0.24), can serve as a hedge allocation for US stock portfolios [0]

1. Geopolitical risks
   : Repeated China-US relations, long-term delisting risk of Chinese concept stocks

2. Regulatory uncertainty
   : Although the harshest period has passed, the regulatory framework is still evolving

3. Capital outflow pressure
   : Foreign allocation to Chinese assets is at a historical low

4. High volatility
   : Historical max drawdown of -37.90%, requiring strong risk tolerance [0]

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(2024-2025) [0]:

• Current trend:
  Sideways consolidation
  , trading range [$617.44, $625.41]
• KDJ indicator:
  Overbought warning
  (K value 80.9)
• MACD: Bullish, but no clear crossover signal
• Beta as high as 1.19: Highly correlated with S&P500, high systemic risk

1. Valuation at historical high
   : P/E ratio of 34.21 is significantly higher than historical average

2. Doubts about AI investment returns
   : Market starts to question the monetization ability of AI spending

3. Concentration risk of “Mag7”
   : Seven giants contributed most of the S&P500’s gains

4. Cost of geopolitical hegemony
   : Military spending to maintain global hegemony may drag on fiscal

:知名机构Yardeni Research在2025年12月建议（七巨头），这是该机构15年来首次看空科技巨头，预期盈利增长将出现结构性转变[1]。

Your view is not without basis:

: 1966-1981年道琼斯15年不涨的背景包括：

• Vietnam War fiscal burden
• Inflation pressure
• Oil crisis
• Relative decline of US global hegemony

:

• Geopolitical conflicts like Ukraine war, Red Sea naval battles
• US debt scale surge (exceeded 36 trillion USD in 2025)
• Fed has entered interest rate cut cycle but rates are still relatively high
• Relative decline of US global influence (e.g., Red Sea crisis handling)

: There are also significant differences:

• Current US technological innovation capability still leads (AI, chips, biomedicine)
• Dollar remains the main reserve currency
• US corporate profitability and capital efficiency are still strong

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###4.1 Core Logic of “East Rises West Falls”

Basic assumptions of this theme:

1. US relative decline
   : Loosening geopolitical hegemony, unsustainable fiscal deficit, increasing social division
2. China relative rise
   : Industrial chain completeness advantage, technological innovation catch-up, domestic demand market potential
3. Capital rebalancing
   : Global capital will reallocate from over-allocation to US to Chinese assets

###4.2 Rationality of HK Tech as “East Rises West Falls” Carrier

:

1. Valuation depression
   : Hang Seng Tech P/E ratio of 20.30 is at historical low [0]
2. High-quality assets
   : Tencent, Alibaba etc. have strong cash flow and profitability
3. Friendly policy shift
   : Central policy emphasizes “developing new quality productive forces” and supports tech innovation
4. Low foreign allocation
   : Passive index funds have low HK stock allocation, with incremental fund space

:

1. Long time horizon
   : Historically, this is a
   decades-level trend
   , not short-term
2. High volatility
   : Historical max drawdown of nearly38% [0], requiring extreme patience
3. Institutional differences
   : HK market system differs from US, lower liquidity
4. RMB exchange rate risk
   : RMB depreciation erodes dollar-denominated returns

###4.3 Investment Strategy Recommendations

Based on data analysis, if you adhere to the “East Rises West Falls” theme:

(agree with theme but bear high volatility):

• Hang Seng Tech ETF:30-50%
• Nasdaq ETF:10-20%
• Remaining: Other assets (A-shares, gold, high-dividend stocks)

(hedge to reduce volatility):

• Hang Seng Tech ETF:15-25%
• Nasdaq ETF:30-40%
• Use low correlation (Beta0.24 vs 1.19) for diversification [0]

(wait for signals):

• Hang Seng Tech ETF:5-10%
• Nasdaq ETF:20-30%
• Wait for clearer signals (e.g., dollar index drop, sustained RMB appreciation)

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Based on comprehensive analysis:

###5.1 Short-Medium Term (1-3Y):

:

1. Huge historical performance gap
   : Nasdaq annualized return of33.11% vs Hang Seng Tech’s 8.82% [0]
2. Risk-adjusted return disadvantage
   : Sharpe ratio0.34 vs1.39 [0]
3. Poor max drawdown control
   : -37.90% vs-22.88% [0]
4. Market structure difference
   : Nasdaq leads global tech innovation; Hang Seng Tech focuses on application layer

###5.2 Long Term (5-10Y):

: Chinese tech achieves qualitative innovation breakthroughs

• Global competitiveness in AI, chips, high-end manufacturing
• Shift from business model to hard tech innovation

: Geopolitical risk easing

• Stable China-US “competitive coexistence”
• Delisting risk of Chinese concept stocks resolved
• Foreign confidence in Chinese assets restored

: Deepened capital market reform

• More internationalized A-share/HK stock systems
• Progress in capital account convertibility
• RMB internationalization breakthroughs

###5.3 Current Investment Recommendations

For investors who switched from Nasdaq to Hang Seng Tech:

✅

:

1. Valuation judgment: Correctly identified historical low [0]
2. Diversification: Low US stock correlation (Beta0.24) [0]
3. Long-term layout: Good timing if you believe the theme

⚠️

:

1. Long time horizon
   : Decades-level trend with short-term volatility
2. Volatility management
   : Max drawdown of ~38% requires psychological tolerance [0]
3. Dynamic adjustment
   : Avoid all-in, keep portfolio flexibility

:

1. Core Allocation (60%)
   : Hang Seng Tech ETF
   • Logic: Low valuation, friendly policy, long-term theme
2. Hedge Allocation (30%)
   : Nasdaq/global tech ETFs
   • Logic: Avoid missing US tech dividends
3. Protective Allocation (10%)
   : Gold, high-dividend stocks or cash
   • Logic: Handle extreme risks

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:

1. Standardized Price Trend
   : Nasdaq rose from100→235 vs Hang Seng Tech→129 [0]
2. 30D Rolling Volatility
   : Hang Seng Tech volatility is higher
3. Max Drawdown
   : Hang Seng Tech (-37.90%) vs Nasdaq (-22.88%) [0]
4. Recent 12M Monthly Returns
   : Nasdaq more stable

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###7.1 Core Conclusion

Answer:

.

:

1. Historical performance does not support replacement:33.11% vs 8.82% [0]
2. Risk-adjusted return disadvantage:0.34 vs 1.39 [0]
3. Allocation Value Exists
   :
   -40% valuation discount (20.30 vs 34.21) [0]
   -Low US correlation (Beta0.24) [0]
   -Potential excess returns if theme holds

###7.2 Feasibility of “East Rises West Falls”

This is a worthy long-term theme but:

1. Long time
   : >10Y trend
2. Tortuous process
   : Repeated great power games
3. Dynamic verification
   : Track innovation breakthroughs, RMB internationalization, foreign inflow

###7.3 Final Recommendations

For theme believers:

✅

:

• Use Hang Seng Tech as core allocation (30-50%)
• Hold long-term (5-10Y)
• Regular fixed investment to smooth costs
• Allocate high-dividend assets

❌

:

• All-in Hang Seng Tech, abandon Nasdaq
• Expect short-term gains
• Ignore volatility or over-leverage
• Neglect geopolitical risks

: Build a :

• Core (60%): Global tech leaders (Nasdaq + HK Tech)
• Satellite (30%): Chinese tech assets
• Protective (10%): Gold, high-dividend stocks

This shares global innovation dividends, leaves theme room, and controls risk.

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[0] Jinling API Data: Real-time quotes, historical prices, technical/fi data for Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033.HK) and Nasdaq ETF (QQQ)

[1] Bloomberg: “Yardeni Moves to Underweight on Mag7 After15-Year Tech Bet” (Dec8,2025)

[2] Wall Street Journal: “Stock Market News, Dec17,2025: Tech Slide Weighs on Nasdaq”

[3] Yahoo Finance: “2025’s Biggest Market Bets Deliver Wins, Wipeouts and Sharp Turns”