2025 A-share Market Annual Review: In-depth Analysis of Hard Technology Main Line and Style Differentiation

Cambricon vs Kweichow Moutai

Key Data (Based on Securities Firm API and Web Search)

• Cambricon (688256.SS) 2025:

  • Stock Price Range: 653.01 → 1595.88 → 1358.50 (Year-end Closing); Intrayear highest range increase once exceeded 144%, full-year increase of 108.04%
  • On August 27, 2025, intraday high reached 1464.98 yuan; at the same time, Kweichow Moutai’s stock price was 1460.94 yuan, so Cambricon’s stock price briefly surpassed Moutai [1][2]
  • Intraday peak market capitalization once exceeded 600 billion yuan, but closed lower; Moutai’s closing price of 1448 yuan was higher than Cambricon’s 1372.1 yuan [1][2]
  • Dynamic P/E ratio was extremely high (about 500x), significantly higher than the industry median [2]
  • 2025 Latest Real-time Total Market Capitalization: $570.44B (approx. 570 billion USD) [0]
  • H1 2025 Revenue: 2.881 billion yuan, YoY surge of 4347.82%; Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company: 1.038 billion yuan, first semi-annual profit [2]

• Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) 2025:

  • Stock Price:1524.00 →1402.00 (Year-end Closing), full-year decline of -8.01%
  • Latest Real-time Market Capitalization: $1.76T (approx.1.76 trillion USD) [0]
  • TTM P/E Ratio: about19.51x (in reasonable range)
  • ROE:36.48%, Net Profit Margin:51.51% (excellent profit quality)

“New Stock King” Exact Meaning and Fact Clarification

• Historic Scene: Intraday stock price surpasses on August27. Around13:38 on August27,2025, Cambricon’s intraday price hit1464.98 yuan, while Moutai’s price was about 1460.94 yuan at the same time. Cambricon briefly became the “new stock king” in terms of stock price. However, affected by late market plunge, Cambricon’s gain narrowed to3.24%, closing at 1372.1 yuan; Moutai closed at1448 yuan, which was still higher than Cambricon [1][2]. Therefore, strictly speaking, this event was a “brief intraday stock price surpass” rather than “market capitalization surpass” or “closing price surpass”.
• Market Capitalization Dimension: As of latest real-time data, Moutai’s total market capitalization ($1.76T) is still far higher than Cambricon’s ($570.44B) [0].
• “Moutai Curse” Mentioned Again: In A-share history, many stocks have challenged Moutai’s “stock king” status (e.g., China Mobile once briefly surpassed its stock price), but ultimately failed to shake its long-term “stock king” position. After Cambricon’s intraday surpass this time, the market generally focused on the sustainability of its stock price and valuation [1][2].

Capital and Sentiment Aspect

• On that day, Cambricon’s full-day turnover was about 25 billion yuan, turnover rate remained high at4.28%, showing high enthusiasm for Cambricon among capital [1][2].
• Institutional Sentiment Divided: Supporters see it as a symbol of domestic AI chip rise; skeptics believe valuation is too high, and high customer concentration (single customer accounts for nearly80% of revenue) brings performance fluctuation risks [2].

DeepSeek and Computing Power Year

• 2025 was called the “Computing Power Year” by the market. Chinese native AI platforms represented by DeepSeek rose rapidly, driving the explosion of demand for AI chips and data centers. Web search shows that when DeepSeek released its V3.1 large model, it mentioned “UE8M0 FP8” was designed for next-generation domestic chips, which was regarded by the market as an important breakthrough in domestic software-hardware collaboration, driving the domestic AI chip theme market [2][7].

“Three Computing Power Giants” Rise

• The market refers to Cambricon, Moore Threads, and Muxi as the “Three Computing Power Giants”. Muxi Co., Ltd. (688795-CN) rose by up to 755% on its first day of listing, finally closing with a gain of692%; Moore Threads rose by 425% on its IPO day. The combined total market capitalization of the three companies has exceeded1 trillion yuan [8].
• Policy and Domestic Substitution Resonance: The State Council issued the “Opinions on Further Implementing the ‘AI+’ Action”, proposing to achieve deep integration of AI and key fields by 2027 [2]. Against the background of export controls, domestic GPUs have ushered in a “protective market space”, and investors’ long-term growth expectations for domestic AI chips have risen significantly [8].

Industry Penetration and Scenario Implementation

• AI is accelerating its implementation in manufacturing, finance, energy, medical care and other industries. For example: Shanghai Film Studio launched the first over-100-minute generative AI drama, shortening the production cycle by about2/3; China Southern Power Grid’s vertical model “Big Watt” daily calls increased from10 million times at the beginning of the year to 40 million times in December; TCL’s panel line AI application created comprehensive benefits exceeding 1 billion yuan [8].
• These application implementations further drive domestic computing power demand, forming a “model-computing power-scenario” closed loop.

Performance Comparison (Based on Tool Data)

• Hard Technology (represented by Cambricon):

  • Full-year2025 stock price gain:108.04% [0]
  • Dynamic P/E ratio extremely high (about 500x), reflecting high valuation and high growth expectations [2]
  • Market capitalization, though rising rapidly, was still significantly lower than Moutai ($570.44B vs $1.76T) as of latest real-time data [0]

• Traditional Consumption (represented by Moutai):

  • Full-year 2025 stock price decline: -8.01% [0]
  • P/E ratio about19.51x, valuation in reasonable range [0]
  • Excellent profit quality (ROE36.48%, net profit margin51.51%) [0]
  • Affected by consumption recovery pace, population structure and risk preference changes, capital preference shifted to high-growth technology sectors, valuation premium faced continuous pressure.

Capital and Structural Trends

• Foreign institutions generally expressed renewed confidence in the Chinese market at the2025 Global Investors Conference, especially focusing on emerging fields such as AI and high-end manufacturing [9].
• Sector Rotation: The market capitalization share of AI and hard technology sectors in A-shares continued to rise, with capital spreading from traditional consumption and finance to technology. However, the cash flow, dividends and brand moats of traditional consumption sectors still have long-term allocation value.

• A-share total market capitalization exceeded100 trillion yuan (approx.13.8 trillion USD), reflecting overall market expansion and valuation repair [9].
• Securities Industry Consolidation Accelerated: CICC announced its merger with Cinda Securities and Dongxing Securities to build a “securities industry aircraft carrier”, promoting financial service integration and competitiveness enhancement [10].
• Foreign Capital Inflow: Since 2025, overseas capital has shown net inflow, with many institutions increasing their allocation of Chinese assets. The CSI300 Index has a valuation of about 12x, which is attractive [9].

Factors Supporting the Continuation of Style Shift

• Continuous policy increase on “AI+” and computing power autonomy, providing medium-to-long-term demand foundation for the hard technology sector [2][8].
• Industrial Trends: AI applications are accelerating in multiple industries, and the domestic GPU/IDC industry chain still has high growth space [8].
• Foreign capital and incremental capital prefer scientific and technological innovation and high-growth tracks more, promoting valuation reconstruction [9].

Constraints and Risks

• Valuation and Profit Matching: The performance fulfillment degree and customer concentration of high-valuation stocks like Cambricon are still key risk points. If performance falls short of expectations or competition intensifies, valuations may face correction pressure [2].
• Technological Iteration and Competitive Pattern: Domestic AI chip companies face internal competition (Moore Threads, Muxi, Biren, etc.) and external technological blockade and negotiation uncertainty (the US has adjusted some chip export policies to China) [8].
• Macro and Policy Rhythm: If there is marginal policy tightening or changes in the macro environment, the market may return to defense (consumption, dividends) periodically.

Evolution of Traditional Consumption Sector

• Short-term Pressure but Long-term Resilience: The consumption sector may continue to be weak before the recovery of consumption confidence and changes in population structure, but the cash flow, brand and channel barriers of leading enterprises are still the foundation of long-term value.
• Valuation and Time: If profit growth rebounds, combined with valuation repair, the sector has periodic rebound opportunities.
• Increased Differentiation: Staple consumption and structural highlights (high-end segments, brand premium) may be relatively resilient, while discretionary consumption is constrained by income expectations and real estate cycles.

Future Scenario Deduction

• Neutral to Optimistic: Under the premise of continuous AI implementation, friendly policies and good profit fulfillment, the hard technology main line continues, but volatility increases; traditional consumption oscillates at the bottom, waiting for profit and policy inflection points.
• Pessimistic Scenario: Global liquidity tightening or AI commercialization falling short of expectations, high-valuation sectors face valuation compression, and capital returns to traditional defensive sectors periodically.

Core Views (Revised)

• Exact Definition of “New Stock King”: In2025, Cambricon briefly surpassed Moutai in intraday stock price on August27, becoming the “new stock king” only in terms of stock price; but in terms of market capitalization, as of latest real-time data, Cambricon ($570.44B) still has not surpassed Moutai ($1.76T), and Moutai’s closing price was also higher than Cambricon’s on that day [0][1][2].
• Style Shift: In 2025, A-shares experienced an obvious style shift from traditional consumption (old-economy stocks) to hard technology (AI, computing power), with industrial and policy foundations, but still need to pay attention to valuation matching and performance fulfillment.
• Differentiation Deduction: In the short term, hard technology continues to be strong and traditional consumption is under pressure, but in the long term, the two sectors may move towards balanced allocation of “high growth and high defense”.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

• Hard Technology Sector:

  • Focus on leaders with high performance certainty and strong ecological barriers (computing power, models, IDC, energy supporting) [8].
  • Dynamically evaluate valuation and order fulfillment, control rhythm and volatility.

• Traditional Consumption Sector:

  • Wait for policy and profit inflection points, attach importance to cash flow and dividends.
  • Optimize high-end segments and brand premiums, and lay out long-term value at low prices.

• Risk Management:

  • Avoid excessive concentration on a single style or target.
  • Adopt dollar-cost averaging or hedging strategies to balance high-growth and high-defense asset allocation.

(Note: This report is based on public market information and tool data, and does not constitute investment advice.)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Data System (real-time quotes, company overview, stock daily lines)
[1] Yahoo Finance - Historic Moment! Cambricon Briefly Surpasses Kweichow Moutai to Become A-share “New Stock King” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/歷史性一幕-寒武紀超越貴州茅台短暫躍A股「新股王」-022302086.html)
[2] Yahoo Finance - Cambricon’s Market Capitalization Once Surpasses Moutai to Become “Stock King”: Domestic Chip Myth or Bubble? (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/寒武紀市值一度碾壓茅台成「股王」-國產晶片神話還是泡沫-000004726.html)
[3] WSJ (cn.wsj.com) - Cambricon’s Stock Price Rises, Boosted by Surge in AI Chip Demand
[4] Yahoo Finance - Expand Investment | Bubble Not Bursting Yet, AI Stocks Still Buyable Next Year (Brother Xiaoyong) (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/拉闊投資│泡沫未近爆破時-ai股明年仍可買（小勇哥）-001536588.html)
[5] Yahoo Finance - DeepSeek Test: Eight Questions About Stocks and Real Estate, Answered Like This… (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/deepseek實測八問-股樓問題咁樣答-230033634.html)
[6] WEF (World Economic Forum) - Tracking tariffs: Key moments in the US-China trade dispute
[7] WEF - 2025: The Year in Pictures (CNN)
[8] Yahoo Finance - Chip Maker Muxi Rises Nearly700% on Listing Day, China’s Three Computing Power Giants’ Market Capitalization Exceeds 1 Trillion Yuan (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/晶片廠沐曦上市即收漲近700%-中國算力三雄市值突破兆元人民幣-174412854.html)
[9] Yahoo Finance - Foreign Capital Returns to Chinese Market! 2025 Global Investors Conference Releases Strong Signal (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/外資重返中國市場！2025全球投資者大會釋出強烈訊號-085006217.html)
[10] WSJ - CICC Plans to Merge with Two Securities Firms, Further Integration of China’s Financial Industry (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/中金公司計劃與兩家券商合併-中國金融業進一步整合-a71a79a9)