Analysis of Industrial Investment Value and Strategy During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period (2026-2030)

Based on the latest market data and 36Kr Research Institute reports, I will systematically analyze the industrial investment value and investment strategy during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period (2026-2030).

The 15th Five-Year Plan has established the construction of a modern industrial system as its primary task, clearly proposing three industrial tiers:

: New Energy, New Materials, Aerospace, Low-Altitude Economy (newly added)
: Quantum Technology, Biomanufacturing, Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion, 6G, Brain-Computer Interface
: First proposed the transformation direction of “service-oriented manufacturing”

JPMorgan predicts that the MSCI China Index will have an upside potential of nearly 20% in 2026, with new economy sectors such as AI and high-end manufacturing expected to grow at over 20% [1].

Based on current valuation, policy support intensity and industrialization progress, the investment value ranking of each sub-segment is as follows:

Rank	Segment	Investment Value	Valuation Level	Policy Support	Industrialization Stage
1	New Energy-Source-Grid-Load-Storage Coordination	★★★★★	Medium	Extremely Strong	Large-scale Application
2	Commercial Aerospace/Low-Altitude Economy	★★★★☆	High	Extremely Strong	Rapid Growth Stage
3	AI Infrastructure	★★★★★	High	Extremely Strong	Large-scale Application
4	Quantum Technology	★★★☆☆	Very High	Strong	Early Industrialization
5	Hydrogen Energy/Nuclear Fusion	★★★☆☆	Medium	Strong	Pilot Stage

Traditional valuation logic is based on installed capacity growth, while the core logic during the 15th Five-Year Plan period shifts to

:

:<br>- From “manufacturing end” to “system end”<br>- From “production capacity scale” to “coordination efficiency”<br>- From “equipment supplier” to “comprehensive energy service provider”

[0]<br>- Current Price: 369.31 CNY, Market Cap: 1.63 Trillion CNY<br>- P/E Ratio: 25.61x<br>- 2025 Performance: +42.71% (YTD)<br>- Financial Health: ROE 22.84%, Net Profit Margin:16.53%, Current Ratio:1.68<br>- Valuation Judgment: , with long-term allocation value

[0]<br>- Current Price:18.70 CNY, Market Cap:141.34 Billion CNY<br>- P/E Ratio: -25.62x (due to industry losses)<br>-2025 Performance: Rebounded from a low of14.01 CNY to18.70 CNY<br>-Valuation Judgment: , focus on leading enterprise integration opportunities

[0]<br>-Current Price:97.10 HKD, Market Cap:915.22 Billion HKD<br>-P/E Ratio:61.07x<br>-2025 Performance:+12.82% (YTD)<br>-Overseas Expansion: Breakthroughs in mature markets such as Germany and Japan<br>-Valuation Judgment: , wait for correction opportunities

: Industry capacity clearance is nearing completion, leading enterprises’ profit margins are starting to recover [1], but valuation differentiation is obvious

:<br>- Source-grid-load-storage integration projects enter large-scale construction phase<br>- Overseas markets become important growth engines (JinkoSolar’s overseas orders have locked 70% of annual capacity) [1]<br>- Investment Timing:

###2.2 Aerospace: Dual Drive of National Projects and Commercial Aerospace

: Beidou Navigation System, Deep Space Exploration, Space Station Construction<br>: Satellite Internet, Launch Vehicles, Space Tourism

According to the 36Kr report, commercial aerospace has been added as a strategic emerging industry, alongside new energy, new materials and aerospace. This is highly consistent with international trends—SpaceX’s valuation soared to $800-1500 billion by the end of 2025, and the expected IPO scale in 2026 may reach $25-30 billion, with a valuation target of $1.5 trillion [2].

The valuation logic of commercial aerospace is completely different from traditional manufacturing:

: Based on current profits and cash flow<br>: Based on future market space and platform value

Take SpaceX as an example:<br>- 2025 Estimated Revenue: $15 billion<br>- Valuation: $800-1500 billion<br>- P/S Ratio:53x (far exceeding traditional tech companies) [2]<br>- Logic: Paying not for a single business line, but for unique integrated platform value

:<br>- China Satellite, Aerospace Science and Technology: State-owned enterprises, high certainty but low elasticity<br>- Sugon (603019.SS): Dual attributes of AI infrastructure + aerospace informatization [0]

:<br>- Q4 2025-Q1 2026: Industry startup phase, focus on policy catalysts<br>- Long-term Strategy: Allocate state-owned enterprises with core technologies + layout commercial aerospace industry chain

###2.3 Quantum Technology: Strategic Positioning in the Global First Tier

According to Forbes predictions, quantum computing will shift from laboratory experiments to actual commercial impact in 2026, with application areas covering AI, cybersecurity and industry applications [3].

China is in the global first tier in quantum technology, but industrialization is still lower than the US. Quantum technology is included in the “15th Five-Year Plan” future industries, showing strategic attention at the policy level.

: Based on technological breakthroughs and strategic value<br>: Based on commercial application revenue and market share

Quantum technology investment requires

and :

• Technical Risk: Commercialization path is not yet clear
• Market Risk: Profit schedule is uncertain
• Policy Risk: Intensified international competition

[0]:<br>- Current Price:85.19 CNY, Market Cap:124.41 Billion CNY<br>- P/E Ratio:59.17x<br>-2025 Performance:+25.37% (YTD)<br>- Business Layout: AI servers, quantum computing infrastructure<br>- JPMorgan points out that Sugon’s orders have been scheduled until Q2 2026 [1]

: Quantum communication special equipment, leading in commercialization progress

: High valuation (P/E 59x), but significant technical barriers

:<br>- AI+quantum application scenarios landing<br>- Accelerated commercialization of quantum encryption communication<br>- Investment Timing:

##3. Valuation Logic Framework and Investment Strategy

###3.1 Valuation Framework for Different Industrial Stages

Industrialization Stage      Valuation Method          Key Indicators            Risk-Return Characteristics
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Embryonic Stage (Quantum)   Option Value Method        Technological Breakthrough Progress        High Risk/High Return
Growth Stage (Commercial Aerospace)  P/S, Platform Value    Market Space, Order Volume     Medium-High Risk/High Return
Mature Stage (New Energy)  P/E, PEG, DCF    Profitability, Cash Flow     Medium Risk/Medium Return

###3.2 Investment Timing Judgment Framework

:<br>- Official release of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026)<br>- Landing of various special industrial policies<br>- Introduction of local supporting measures

:<br>- New energy leaders: Can build positions in batches when P/E <30x<br>- Commercial aerospace: Focus on primary market valuation changes, wait for IPO opportunities<br>- Quantum technology: Technological breakthrough catalysts

:<br>Based on CATL’s 2025 data [0]:<br>- Annual increase +38.71%, showing strong trend<br>- 20-day MA:380.37 CNY, current price:369.31 CNY (short-term correction)<br>-200-day MA:303.09 CNY (strong long-term support)<br>- Strategy: Can allocate in batches when retracing to near the 200-day moving average

###3.3 Core Investment Strategy

:<br>- Leading equipment suppliers: CATL, LONGi Green Energy<br>- Energy storage system integrators<br>- Smart grid equipment suppliers<br>- Comprehensive energy service providers

:<br>- H1 2026: Industry bottoming phase, buy the dip to layout<br>- H2 2026-2027: Project volume release phase, hold for growth<br>- Risk Control: Set profit stop and loss, control position size

:<br>- Satellite Internet industry chain<br>- Core components of launch vehicles<br>- Low-altitude economy infrastructure<br>- Avionics and navigation systems

:<br>-2026: Policy catalysis phase, theme investment<br>-2027-2028: Commercialization acceleration phase, fundamental investment<br>- Risk Tips: Commercialization falls short of expectations

:<br>- Quantum communication infrastructure<br>- Core hardware for quantum computing<br>- Quantum+AI application scenarios

:<br>- Small position long-term allocation (5-10% of total position)<br>- Increase positions with technological breakthrough catalysts<br>- Risk Tips: Ultra-long cycle, need patience

##4. Risk Management Recommendations

###4.1 Industry Risks

:<br>- Overcapacity risk (photovoltaic, lithium battery)<br>- Technological iteration risk (new technology replacement)<br>- Geopolitical risk (overseas market barriers)

:<br>- Technical failure risk<br>- Commercialization falls short of expectations<br>- High valuation bubble risk

:<br>- Uncertainty of technical routes<br>- Ultra-long commercialization cycle<br>- Intensified international competition

###4.2 Portfolio Allocation Recommendations

:<br>- New energy leaders:60%<br>- Traditional industry transformation:30%<br>- Cash/Fixed Income:10%

:<br>- New Energy-Source-Grid-Load-Storage:40%<br>- Commercial Aerospace/Low-Altitude Economy:30%<br>- Quantum Technology:10%<br>- Others:20%

:<br>- New Energy-Source-Grid-Load-Storage:30%<br>- Commercial Aerospace/Low-Altitude Economy:35%<br>- Quantum Technology:15%<br>- AI Infrastructure:20%

##5. Core Conclusions

:<br>1. : Strongest policy certainty, highest industrialization level, relatively reasonable valuation<br>2. : Newly added strategic emerging industry, international benchmark against SpaceX, huge growth space<br>3. : Orders of targets like Sugon have been scheduled until Q2 2026 [1], high performance certainty

:<br>- : New energy bottoming phase, buy the dip to layout leaders<br>- : Commercial aerospace policy catalysis phase, theme investment opportunities<br>- : Long-term allocation of quantum technology, technical breakthrough realization phase

:<br>- From “production capacity scale” to “technical barriers”<br>- From “current profit” to “future platform value”<br>- From “single business” to “ecosystem”

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s industrial structure will undergo profound changes. Investors need to adapt to new valuation logic and grasp investment opportunities from the resonance of policy-driven and technological innovation. It is recommended to focus on areas with strong certainty such as new energy system solutions, commercial aerospace industry chain and AI infrastructure, while allocating small positions to future industries like quantum technology for the long term.

##References

[0] Jinling API Data - Real-time stock prices, financial indicators, market data
[1] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - JPMorgan is bullish on 2026 MSCI China Index driven by four major themes (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/摩根大通看好2026-msci中國指數-ai-反內卷-海外布局與消費復甦四大主題驅動-231004197.html)
[2] Forbes - SpaceX Valuation Soars (https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/12/16/spacex-valuation-soars/)
[3] ts2.tech - SpaceX Starlink 2026 IPO Plans (https://ts2.tech/en/spacex-starlink-today-2026-ipo-plans-india-launch-pricing-and-record-rocket-cadence-december-10-2025/)
[4] Forbes -7 Quantum Computing Trends That Will Shape Every Industry In 2026 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2025/12/11/7-quantum-computing-trends-that-will-shape-every-industry-in-2026/)
[5] China Daily - Talent cultivation key to self-reliance in sci-tech (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/01/WS692cd1fea310d6866eb2c269.html)