Valuation and Investment Attractiveness Analysis of the U.S. Cold Chain Warehousing and Logistics Industry

Based on an in-depth analysis of Americold Realty Trust (COLD) and the entire cold chain logistics industry, I will provide a comprehensive assessment from three dimensions: valuation level, investment attractiveness, and private capital trends.

[0]:

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Stock Price	$12.75	-
Market Cap	$3.63 billion	-
P/E Ratio	-57.95x	Negative value, company in loss
P/B Ratio	1.20x	Close to book value
EV/OCF	25.19x	-
52-Week Range	$10.10 - $23.52	Currently at the lower end of the range

[0]:

As shown in the chart, COLD stock fell sharply by 57.57% between 2024 and 2025 (from $30.05 to $12.75), and is currently trading significantly below the 200-day moving average ($15.48), showing technical weakness [0].

Despite the current low stock price, the DCF model shows the company’s intrinsic value is far higher than the market price [0]:

Scenario	Fair Value	Upside vs Current Price
Conservative	$47.04	+268.9%
Base	$60.91	+377.7%
Optimistic	$110.06	+763.2%
Probability-Weighted Value	$72.67	+470.0%

:<br>

• Base scenario assumes a 7.6% revenue growth rate (based on 5-year historical average)<br>
• WACC is 7.1%<br>
• EBITDA margin is 13.2%

The company currently faces significant financial pressure [0]:

• Profitability
  : Net profit margin -2.39%, ROE -1.98% (operating at loss)
• Liquidity Risk
  : Current ratio only 0.09 (severely low)
• Debt Risk
  : Classified as “high risk”
• Cash Flow
  : Free cash flow of $102 million (positive but limited)

[1][2][3]:

• Global Cold Chain Market
  : $275 billion in 2023, projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.3% from 2025 to 2035
• North American Market
  : Expected to grow from $116.85 billion in 2024 to $289.58 billion in 2034 (CAGR of 9.50%)
• U.S. Food Cold Chain
  : Projected CAGR of14.8%, driven by advanced logistics infrastructure and high consumption

1. Structural Demand Growth
   <br>
   • Expansion of global trade in temperature-sensitive products<br>
   • Surge in cold chain demand from the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries<br>
   • Rapid penetration of e-commerce and online grocery delivery services

2. Technology Upgrade Needs
   <br>
   • Investment in automation and IoT monitoring systems<br>
   • Transition to sustainable cold chain technologies<br>
   • Requirements for efficiency improvement and environmental compliance

3. Accelerated Industry Consolidation
   <br>
   • Leading enterprises expand scale via mergers and acquisitions<br>
   • Network effects and operational efficiency enhancement

:<br>

• July 2024
  : Lineage completed a $5.1 billion IPO, becoming the largest U.S. IPO since Arm Holdings in September 2023 [10]<br>
• April 2025
  : Committed $247 million to acquire four cold storage facilities from Tyson Foods [3]<br>
• Expansion Plan
  : Announced construction of two advanced automated warehouses to enhance U.S. cold chain capacity and operational efficiency [3]

[2]:<br>

• June 2024: CJ Logistics America built a new cold storage facility near Kansas City<br>
• Agile Cold Storage invested $45.9 million in a new facility in St. Tammany Parish<br>
• United States Cold Storage plans to expand its refrigerated facility in Tulare

<br>
Currently, COLD’s stock price is down 46% from its 52-week high and over 60% from its historical high. Private capital may view this as:

• Deep Value Opportunity
  : P/B ratio of only1.20x, close to book value
• Expectation Reversal
  : DCF shows 470% upside potential
• Industry Distress
  : Mismatch between short-term financial pressure and long-term growth potential

<br>
Cold chain warehousing has:

• Stable Cash Flow
  : Long-term lease contracts
• Anti-Cyclical Nature
  : Food and pharmaceuticals are essential needs
• Inflation Hedge
  : Rents are usually linked to inflation
• High Entry Barriers
  : Capital-intensive, strict regulatory requirements

<br>
Cold chain logistics is becoming:

• A key link in
  reducing food waste
  <br>
• A frontier for
  energy efficiency improvement
  technology applications
• Infrastructure support for achieving
  carbon neutrality goals
  <br>

<br>
Post-pandemic supply chain changes:

• Nearshoring
  trend increases regional cold chain demand
• Inventory Buffer Strategies
  boost warehousing needs
• New supply chain paradigm:
  resilience over efficiency

1. Interest Rate Pressure
   : High interest rates increase financing costs and capital expenditure burdens
2. Rising Operational Costs
   : Sustained increases in energy and labor costs
3. Valuation Repair Time
   : Despite high intrinsic value shown by DCF, market sentiment repair may take time

• Increasing Market Concentration
  : Leading enterprises further consolidate via mergers and acquisitions
• Technology Investment Race
  : Automation capability becomes a key competitive factor
• Significant Regional Differences
  : North American market is more mature than emerging markets

:<br>

• Technical Indicators: Stock price below 200-day moving average
• Relative Valuation: P/B ratio of only1.20x, significantly lower than the average of industrial REITs
• Intrinsic Value: DCF model shows470% upside potential

[0]:<br>

• Consensus Rating: Buy
• Median Target Price: $14.00 (+9.8% vs current price)
• Target Range: $11.00 - $18.00

The growing interest from private capital reflects the following trends:

1. Long-Term Growth Certainty
   : Cold chain demand is driven by structural factors such as population growth, consumption upgrade, and pharmaceutical demand
2. Short-Term Value Mismatch
   : Low market sentiment vs high intrinsic value
3. Infrastructure Value Revaluation
   : Post-pandemic emphasis on supply chain resilience提升 the value of logistics infrastructure
4. Technology Upgrade Window
   : Investment in automation and sustainable technologies creates new value growth points

Dimension	Rating	Explanation
Growth Prospects	★★★★☆	Industry CAGR of9.5-15.3%
Valuation Level	★★★★★	DCF shows 470% upside potential
Competitive Barriers	★★★★☆	Capital-intensive, high entry barriers
Cash Flow Stability	★★★☆☆	Current profitability is weak, but long-term improvement potential exists
Risk-Reward Ratio	★★★★☆	High short-term risk, but long-term high return potential

: The U.S. cold chain warehousing and logistics industry has strong long-term growth prospects and is currently undervalued. The growing interest from private capital reflects recognition of the industry’s long-term value and敏锐 capture of short-term price mismatches. For investors who can withstand short-term volatility and liquidity risks, the current period has high strategic allocation value. However, close attention should be paid to the company’s debt restructuring progress and operational improvement measures.

[0] Gilin API Data - Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Financial Data, Valuation Metrics, DCF Analysis

[1] Yahoo Finance - “North America Cold Chain Market Outlook” (2025)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/north-america-cold-chain-market-135300750.html

[2] Yahoo Finance - “Cold Chain Logistics Market 2025” (2025)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cold-chain-logistics-market-2025-153100960.html

[3] Future Market Insights - “Cold Chain Logistics Market Report 2025-2035” (2025)
https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/cold-chain-logistics-market

[4] Fact.MR - “Food Cold Chain Logistics Market Forecast 2025-2035” (2025)
https://www.factmr.com/report/food-cold-chain-logistics-market

[10] Investopedia - “IPOs Gained Momentum in 2024” (Lineage IPO $5.1 billion)
https://www.investopedia.com/ipos-gained-momentum-2024-next-year-could-be-bigger-8759346