Impact of Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Changes on Energy, Military, and Safe-Haven Assets

Based on your question and using data from brokerage APIs and online search information, this report systematically assesses the impact of changes in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical landscape on global energy prices, the military sector, and safe-haven assets such as gold. Key emphasis: Different assets exhibit differences in their annual trends and recent rhythms—gold is currently in a short-term correction phase, while energy and the military sector have stronger structural upside logic.

• The data used in this analysis covers approximately the last 90 trading days (September to December 2025), with online searches focused on the last week/month—not a “full-year” or complete “Q4” statistic.
• To maintain rigor, this report evaluates “annual trends” and “recent rhythms” separately to avoid simply extrapolating 90-day data into full-year conclusions.
• Conclusions and statements have been aligned with real-time quotes, historical data, and news sources to resolve previous contradictions and conflicts.

• Price and range: Initial price ~$3,897.5, ending price ~$4,354.6; intraday high $4,584, intraday low ~$3,842.8.
• Returns and volatility: Cumulative return +11.73%, 20-day rolling annualized volatility ~18.67%.
• Technical levels (based on 90 days): 20-day moving average ~$4,380.15, 50-day moving average ~$4,225.18.

• GCUSD closed at $4,356.70, down $196.00/-4.31% from the previous day’s $4,552.70; range $4,316–$4,581.3. This indicates short-term profit-taking at highs and increased volatility.
• Trading volume is below average, suggesting the correction is more technically driven and does not necessarily change the medium-term structure.

• Annual support logic: Multiple geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East, etc.) combined with expectations of monetary policy easing (three consecutive rate cuts this year) jointly pushed gold to new highs in 2025 [1][2][4].
• Recent disturbances: A significant correction occurred from late December to the end of the month, reflecting short-term profit-taking, technical repairs, and year-end capital rebalancing; however, online searches still emphasize the “friendly” backdrop of rate cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainty for gold [1][4].

• Medium-term: Before geopolitical risks and easing expectations reverse, gold still has bullish support (as evidenced by its all-time high this year), but it is currently in a short-term correction and technical consolidation phase.
• Short-term: Strict risk control; focus on technical support around $4,225 (50-day moving average) and volume signals; avoid chasing highs. A volatility of 18.67% suggests that large retracements may need to be endured in the short term.
• Strategy: Use phased buying and hedging (options/derivatives); avoid full-positioning at once. If the correction stabilizes with matching volume, increase allocation at the right time.

• Crude oil (CLSUD): Initial price ~$61.78, ending price ~$57.75; cumulative change -6.52%, range $54.98–$66.42; 20-day rolling annualized volatility ~21.20%.
• Energy stocks: ExxonMobil (XOM) current price $120.53 (+1.19%)/range $97.80–$121.30; Chevron (CVX) $150.99 (+0.65%)/range $132.04–$168.96.
• 20-day and 50-day moving averages (90-day window): 20-day ~$57.57, 50-day ~$58.72—indicating recent slight pressure but not far from the medium-term average.

• Russia-Ukraine situation: Russia’s statement of holding “strategic initiative” and uncertainty about peace talks progress increase the risk premium of supply disruptions and sanctions escalation, posing long-term pressure on oil prices and European energy security [3].
• Short-term and seasonal factors: Currently at the end of winter demand, combined with macro demand uncertainty (e.g., China’s growth path), leading to weak 90-day range for oil prices and an annual trend of “high volatility + downward pressure”.
• Geopolitics as a “slow variable” for energy: The resilience of energy stocks (e.g., XOM near range highs) reflects industry chain bargaining power and cash flow advantages, but oil futures are more sensitive to immediate supply-demand, leading to weak short-term trends.

• Structural: If Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate (more attacks on Russian oil infrastructure/refineries or increased sanctions), oil prices and related targets still have upside elasticity [3].
• Short-term: Current weak oil prices and 21.20% volatility make range and option strategies more appropriate; if energy stocks correct to a reasonable valuation range (near 50-day moving average), they can be viewed as structural opportunities.
• Strategy: Use options/derivatives to protect against downside risks; phase in upstream and integrated companies; add positions顺势 when geopolitics escalate. Also, focus on liquefied natural gas and midstream infrastructure as relatively stable supplements.

• Lockheed Martin (LMT): Initial price $499, ending price $488.87; cumulative change -2.03%, 20-day rolling annualized volatility ~23.08%; current price $488.87 (+1.21%)/52-week range $410.11–$516.
• Technical analysis: Trend shows sideways/shock; support ~$469.4, resistance ~$493.37; valuation P/E ~27.2 (TTM) [0].

• Budget and orders: NATO defense budget increases and equipment updates are the medium-term main line, but military stocks are sensitive to budget approval and order disclosure rhythms—90-day trend is震荡, with short-term gains lagging gold [1].
• Market expectations and pricing: Military pricing relies more on orders and policy drivers rather than immediate geopolitical pulses; thus, current “negotiation deadlock/unresolved situation” is partially priced in, requiring new order/budget news to catalyze short-term gains.

• Medium-term: If Russia-Ukraine situation remains tense and European/U.S. defense spending stays high, the military sector has sustained profit and order support (industry research shows global aerospace and defense market CAGR ~8.2% from 2025–2032) [1].
• Short-term: Currently in a shock range; valuation is high but order visibility is good. Suitable for buying on dips or swing trading; avoid chasing highs.
• Strategy: Adjust positions around key order and budget policy events; prioritize platform leaders (e.g., LMT, RTX) and emerging combat domains (drones/electronic warfare/missile defense).

• Differentiated performance: Gold +11.73% return with 18.67% volatility; crude oil -6.52% with 21.20% volatility; LMT -2.03% with 23.08% volatility. This shows safe-haven assets (gold) led in the last 90 days, while energy and military sectors were in shock/weak phases due to supply-demand and rhythm factors.
• Differences in real-time status: Gold had a ~-4% technical correction in the short term; oil prices and military stocks had mild quote changes but high volatility, indicating different rhythms across sectors.

• Offensive side (geopolitical escalation): Increase holdings of gold and military (order and policy event-driven); add energy positions based on supply risks.
• Stable side (stalemate continues): Use phased buying on dips and derivatives hedging for gold; swing trading for military; range + option protection for energy.
• Defensive side (trend缓和): Shrink high-volatility positions; increase absolute return strategies; reduce exposure to energy/military; gold is more vulnerable to profit-taking and dollar rebound.

• Position control: Geopolitical pulse trading positions should not exceed 10–15% to avoid excessive impact of short-term volatility on the portfolio.
• Timing: Strictly based on technical levels and volume signals (e.g., gold’s 50-day moving average, oil price’s 50-day moving average, LMT’s support/resistance); avoid emotional chasing of highs/lows.
• Risk hedging: Use options/derivatives to hedge high-volatility positions; gold/yen/U.S. bonds as portfolio stabilizers; diversification to reduce single-event risks.

• Data time window: This analysis uses 90-day trading data and recent one-week/month news; cannot be directly extrapolated to full-year or longer cycles.
• Market risk: Geopolitical paths are non-linear; sentiment and pricing may swing sharply in a short time; gold’s short-term correction and high energy volatility need to be included in risk control.
• Policy risk: Changes in sanctions, export controls, and fiscal budget rhythms may alter the order and profit paths of energy and military sectors.
• Technical and liquidity risk: Under short-term extreme volatility, the cost and execution spread of derivatives and hedging tools may widen.

• Gold: Medium-term upward trend, but recent significant technical correction (~-4%); strict risk control and phased strategy required.
• Energy: Geopolitical risks provide structural premium, but current weak 90-day trend and high volatility; suitable for range and option strategies; add positions based on geopolitical escalation rhythm.
• Military sector: Most directly related to Russia-Ukraine situation; medium-term benefit from NATO and defense spending, but short-term shock trend; recommend swing trading around order and budget events.

If needed, I can build more specific scenario portfolios, hedging plans, and position management rules based on your risk preference and existing holdings.

[0] Jinling API Data (real-time quotes, historical prices, technical analysis, Python calculations and charts)
[1] Yahoo Finance - “3 Defense Stocks to Watch in 2026” (2025-12-23)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-geopolitical-tensions-3-defense-191000775.html
[2] Bloomberg - “Gold and Silver Rise to Records on Rate-Cut Bets, Global Risks” (2025-12-22)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-22/gold-climbs-to-record-on-us-rate-cut-bets-and-geopolitical-risk
[3] World Oil - “Crude prices rebound on stalled Ukraine negotiations, China growth pledge” (2025-12-29)
https://worldoil.com/news/2025/12/29/crude-prices-rebound-on-stalled-ukraine-negotiations-china-growth-pledge/
[4] Yahoo Finance - “What’s behind the surge in gold and silver prices?” (2025-12-23)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-behind-surge-gold-silver-182132450.html
[5] Wall Street Journal - “Oil Picks Up on Lack of Russia-Ukraine Peace Breakthrough” (2025-12-26)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-supported-by-geopolitical-tensions-38fffe51
[6] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - “Why Are So Many Leaders Warning Of War With Russia?” (2025-12-26)
https://www.rferl.org/a/rutte-pistorius-warning-war-russia/33630822.html
[7] Defense News - “Ukraine peace plan ‘scares the bejesus out of us,’ officials say” (2025-12-29)
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/12/29/ukraine-peace-plan-scares-the-bejesus-out-of-us-officials-say/
[8] Forbes - “Decline: Top Five 2025 Developments In Russian Energy” (2025-12-29)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2025/12/29/decline-top-five-2025-developments-in-russian-energy/
[9] Bloomberg - “Europe Is Nearing Deal to End Russian Fossil Fuels Imports” (2025-12-02)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-02/europe-is-nearing-deal-to-end-russian-fossil-fuels-imports

The charts above show the quantitative impact of geopolitical risks on three asset classes (October 1 to December 30, 2025):

• Chart 1: Cumulative return comparison (gold, crude oil, LMT).
• Chart 2: Price trend comparison between gold and military sector stocks.
• Chart 3: 20-day rolling annualized volatility comparison.
• Chart 4: Price distribution boxplot and statistical summary.
  Data source and generation method: OHLCV data obtained using get_stock_data(), calculated and generated via pandas and matplotlib; time range covers approximately the last 90 trading days.