Deep Strategic Analysis of Seres Aito's 2026 Strategy: Can the 550,000 Unit Sales Target Be Met?

Based on the latest market data and company operations, I will systematically analyze Seres Aito’s 2026 development prospects from four dimensions: sales target achievement capability, strategic positioning, cost pressure, and risk challenges.

---

According to the latest data, Seres Aito has established a solid sales foundation in 2025 [2][3][4]:

• 2025 Jan-Nov Cumulative Sales
  : 411,288 units, with significant year-on-year growth
• 2025 Nov Monthly Sales
  : 55,203 units, +49.84% YoY, hitting a historical high
• 2025 Estimated Full-Year Sales
  : Approximately 466,000 units

:

• Aito M7: 350,000 units (sales mainstay, accounting for 37.5%)
• Aito M9: 260,000 units (high-end benchmark, has been the sales champion of luxury SUVs priced above 500,000 yuan for 10 consecutive months [3])
• Aito M8: 130,000 units (sales champion in the 400,000 yuan class)
• Aito M5: 160,000 units

: Grow from approximately 466,000 units in 2025 to 550,000 units, an increase of , requiring an increment of approximately

:

Increment Source	Price Range	Expected Increment	Key Factors
M6 New Model	280,000-320,000 yuan	30,000-40,000 units	Fills the price gap between M5 and M7, targeting young family users
M9L Ultra-Luxury Version	600,000-800,000 yuan	15,000-25,000 units	Breaks the ceiling of the ultra-luxury market
M8 Performance Version	350,000-450,000 yuan	10,000-20,000 units	Consolidates the high-end mainstream market
Overseas Market	Europe (Germany, Norway)	50,000 units	Leverages Huawei’s over 1,000 overseas stores [3]
M7 3.0 Upgrade	300,000-400,000 yuan	10,000-20,000 units	Continuous iteration to maintain competitiveness
M5 Continuous Sales	250,000-300,000 yuan	Stable contribution	Maintains in the stock market

: 115,000-155,000 units > Target gap of 84,000 units

: From the perspective of incremental sources, the 2026 target of 550,000 units is , but the key lies in the launch rhythm of new models and the execution of overseas expansion. Comprehensive assessment shows an .

---

Aito’s “only make blockbusters” high average price strategy has been fully validated by the market:

[3][4]:

• Transaction Average Price
  : 550,000 yuan
• Cumulative Delivery
  : 260,000 units (setting a new delivery record for models priced above 500,000 yuan)
• Cumulative Sales Revenue
  : Approximately 143 billion yuan (equivalent to 1/13 of China’s new energy vehicle retail total in 2024)
• User Reputation
  : NPS (Net Promoter Score) of 85.2 points, ranking first among new energy models;
  38% of new car owners come from recommendations by existing customers
• Market Position
  : Has been the sales champion of luxury SUVs priced above 500,000 yuan for 10 consecutive months

This data fully indicates that in the intelligent track,

. The success of Aito M9 is not accidental; it precisely positions itself in the high-growth, high-premium segment of “L3 intelligent luxury cars”.

[3]:

• Standard configuration of Huawei intelligent driving hardware suite (192-line lidar, 4D millimeter-wave radar, Orin-X chip)
• Huawei ADS 4.0 system, with an urban NOA takeover rate of only 0.05 times per 1,000 kilometers
• Weekly OTA iteration capability, maintaining leading technical experience

:

• Aito brand won the first place in the Brand Development Confidence Index in the first half of 2025
• Seres jumped 270 places to rank 190th in China’s Top 500 Enterprises
• Successfully broke the monopoly of overseas luxury brands in the price segment above 500,000 yuan

[3][4]:

• 2024 revenue of 145.176 billion yuan, of which Aito M9 contributed approximately 75 billion yuan (accounting for 51.7%)
• Successful reversal from a loss of 2.45 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 5.946 billion yuan in 2024
• 2025 first three quarters net profit of 5.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.56%

In 2026, Aito will form a full product matrix of

, covering the price range:

• Downward Extension
  : M6 fills the price gap of 280,000-320,000 yuan, expanding the user base
• Upward Breakthrough
  : M9L (600,000-800,000 yuan) and M10 (800,000-1,100,000 yuan) build the brand ceiling
• Stock Iteration
  : M7 3.0 and M8 Performance Version maintain product competitiveness
• Overseas Expansion
  : Leverages Huawei channels, with an export target of 50,000 units in 2026

: Through the two-way strategy of , it not only expands market share but also enhances brand value, achieving an upgrade .

---

(effective January 1, 2026) [5][6]:

• Changed from full exemption to half exemption
  , with a maximum reduction of 15,000 yuan
• PHEV/EREV range threshold
  : Increased from 43km to 100km (approximately 30% of currently sold models do not meet the standard)

:

• 2025 purchase tax: 0 yuan (full exemption)
• 2026 purchase tax: 35,000 yuan (550,000 yuan ×10% - 15,000 yuan upper limit)
• Increased cost: +35,000 yuan

:

Price Range	2025 Purchase Tax	2026 Purchase Tax	Increased Cost
Aito M9 (550,000 yuan)	0	35,000 yuan	+35,000 yuan
Industry Average (300,000 yuan)	0	15,000 yuan	+15,000 yuan
Mid-Low End (150,000 yuan)	0	7,500 yuan	+7,500 yuan

According to online search data [5][6]:

• Lithium Carbonate Price
  : Expected to rise from 100,000 yuan/ton to 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton
• Impact on Per-Vehicle Cost
  : +10,000-20,000 yuan/unit

Despite facing dual cost pressures, Aito’s “high average price + technical barriers” strategy provides strong response capabilities:

:

• M9 transaction average price is 550,000 yuan;
  the 35,000 yuan purchase tax only accounts for 6.4% of the vehicle price
• Compared to mid-low end models (purchase tax accounts for 5% of 150,000 yuan models), Aito has
  greater cost transfer space
• Users of high-end models have relatively lower price sensitivity

:

• The scarcity of Huawei ADS system allows Aito to
  escape the price war red ocean
• User experience brought by leading intelligent driving technology forms strong user stickiness
• “Can’t go back” intelligent cockpit experience reduces price sensitivity

:

• In 2026, subsidies will shift from “universal” to
  “structural incentives”
  , tilting toward models with high range and intelligent levels [5]
• All Aito models have a pure electric range exceeding the 100km threshold, meeting the new subsidy standards
• L3-level autonomous driving policy liberalization: Aito has obtained 11 L3 test licenses and is expected to be the first to enjoy policy dividends

:

• 2025 estimated sales exceed 460,000 units, with significant scale effects
• R&D costs are diluted, and per-vehicle costs continue to decline
• Gross profit margin increased in the first three quarters of 2025, enhancing profitability

[3]:

• Seres holds 10% equity in Yinwang Intelligence, a subsidiary of Huawei’s Automotive Business Unit
• Based on Yinwang Intelligence’s 2025 forecasted net profit of 5 billion yuan, Seres can obtain approximately 500 million yuan in investment income
• This part of income can directly offset cost increase pressures

---

:

• Overall auto market growth is only
  1%-3%
  [5][6], with slowing demand
• Mid-low end market is under pressure, and competition intensifies
• Macroeconomic downturn may suppress high-end consumption

:

• M6 faces fierce competition from Li Auto, BYD, etc. in the 280,000-320,000 yuan price range
• M9L/M10 ultra-luxury market has a long cultivation cycle, with limited short-term sales contribution
• Production capacity爬坡 and supply chain security (such as chip shortage) may affect delivery

:

• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Establishing brand awareness in Europe takes time
• Challenges in regulatory certification and after-sales service system construction

:

• BBA (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi) accelerate electrification transformation and counterattack in the luxury market
• Other new power brands (Li Auto, NIO, etc.) continue to发力 in the high-end market
• Whether there is resource allocation and competition within Huawei’s “Five Worlds” (Aito, Zhijie, Xiangjie, Shangjie, Zunjie)

:

• Can it quickly open the mainstream market of 280,000-320,000 yuan
• Competitive situation with competitors such as Li Auto L6 and BYD Tang
• Whether first-month sales can exceed 10,000 units

:

• Acceptance in the ultra-luxury market
• Can it replicate the success of M9 and break BBA’s monopoly
• Balance between pricing strategy and sales target

:

• Progress of channel layout in European markets (Germany, Norway)
• Synergy effect of Huawei’s overseas stores
• Right-hand drive model certification and delivery status

:

• Production capacity爬坡 and supply chain stability
• Year-end promotion strategy and order backlog situation
• Gap to the 550,000 unit target and remedial measures

(Supportive Factors):

• ✅ Aito M9 has proven high-end market capabilities and established strong brand momentum
• ✅ Huawei ADS technical barriers form differentiated competitive advantages
• ✅ High pricing strategy provides cost transfer space
• ✅ Overseas channels leverage Huawei to reduce expansion difficulty
• ✅ Product matrix is improved, covering a wider price range
• ✅ Equity investment in Yinwang Technology provides additional income

(Challenges):

• ⚠️ Uncertainty in new model launch rhythm and production capacity爬坡
• ⚠️ Overseas market expansion faces geopolitical challenges
• ⚠️ Luxury market competition intensifies (BBA electrification counterattack)
• ⚠️ Overall auto market growth slows, with insufficient demand
• ⚠️ Rapid product line expansion may dilute brand focus

:

• Achievement Probability of 550,000 Unit Target
  : 60-70%
• Core Variables
  : M6 market performance + Overseas expansion progress + M9L acceptance
• Conservative Expectation
  : 500,000-550,000 units
• Optimistic Expectation
  :550,000-600,000 units (if M6 and overseas exceed expectations)

---

Seres Aito’s “

” strategy faces dual pressures of subsidy retraction and cost increase in 2026, but this strategy , mainly based on:

1. High-End Market Is Relatively Resilient
   : Against the backdrop of overall auto market growth of only 1-3%, the penetration rate of luxury new energy vehicles is still low, with large growth space
2. Technical Barriers Support Premium
   : The scarcity of Huawei ADS system allows Aito to escape the price war red ocean and shift to value competition
3. Strong Cost Transfer Capability
   : The 550,000 yuan transaction average price provides sufficient pricing space, and the 35,000 yuan purchase tax increase can be partially transferred
4. Improved Product Matrix
   : M6 fills gaps, M9L breaks the ceiling, and overseas markets contribute increments

The achievement of the 2026 550,000 unit target depends on:

1. M6 Must Succeed
   : This is the most important incremental source in 2026 and needs to quickly gain volume
2. Smooth Overseas Expansion
   : Leveraging Huawei channels, the 50,000 unit target is relatively conservative but not easy to execute
3. Continuous Hot Sales of M9/M8
   : As sales pillars, they need to maintain monthly delivery of over 20,000 units
4. Effective Cost Control
   : Through scale effects and supply chain management to hedge against raw material price increases

Investors need to pay close attention to the following risk signals:

• M6 sales fall short of expectations in the first 3 months after launch (monthly sales below 5,000 units)
• Slow progress in overseas market expansion (exports below 10,000 units in the first half of the year)
• M9/M8 market share declines due to intensified competition in the luxury market
• Macroeconomic downturn leads to萎缩 of high-end consumption demand

Against the backdrop of overall auto market growth of only 1%-3% and mid-low end market pressure in 2026, Seres Aito’s 550,000 unit sales target

. Its “only make blockbusters” high average price strategy can effectively应对 the dual pressures of subsidy retraction and raw material cost increase through .

:
:
:

---

[1] Dongcai Wealth - Under the high growth expectation of the L3 intelligent luxury car track, the underlying support for Seres’ high revenue and net profit growth
[2] Securities Times - Seres’ new energy vehicle sales in November were 55,203 units, with cumulative sales exceeding 410,000 units (2025-12-01)
[3] Sohu Auto - Aito M9 delivery exceeds 260,000 units leading the high-end market; Seres starts a new journey with capital benefits
[4] IT Home - Seres Kang Bo: Aito’s full range of models delivered over 50,000 new cars in November, hitting a monthly high (2025-12-02)
[5] The Paper - Over 20 cities adjust auto national subsidies, car companies launch year-end “order grabbing war” (2025-12-25)
[6] Wenxuecheng - Subsidies decrease, will buying a car be more expensive in 2026? (2025-12-25)