Analysis of Feasibility and Growth Strategy for Seres AITO's 2026 550,000-unit Sales Target

According to the latest data, the AITO brand performed strongly in 2025:

• Cumulative Sales
  : As of November 21, 2025, cumulative deliveries of the AITO series have exceeded
  900,000 units
• Sales in the first 10 months of 2025
  : 356,000 units [1]
• Single month of November 2025
  : Over 50,000 units delivered, setting a new monthly high [2]
• 2025 full-year estimate
  : Approximately 450,000 units

(as of November 2025):

• AITO M9: 260,000 units (500,000-level segment, consecutive 10-month sales champion in this price range) [1]
• AITO M8: 130,000 units (400,000-level segment champion)
• AITO M7: 350,000 units
• AITO M5: 160,000 units

According to broker forecasts and industry analysis, there are different versions of AITO’s 2026 sales target:

Forecast Source	2026 Target	Growth Rate	Feasibility Assessment
AITO Brand Forecast	450,000-500,000 units	0-11%	★★★★☆ Relatively Stable
HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility Overall	550,000-650,000 units	22-44%	★★★☆☆ Aggressive but Achievable
Investor Post Target	550,000 units	~22%	★★★☆☆ Challenging

: Based on AITO’s current sales momentum and 2026 new car plan, :

:

1. Strong monthly sales capacity
   : Exceeded 50,000 units/month in November; if maintained in 2026, annualized sales could reach 600,000 units
2. New model M6 increment
   : Fills the price gap of 280,000-320,000 yuan, expected monthly sales of 10,000 units [3]
3. Product facelift and upgrade
   : Major facelift of M5 and version 3.0 of M7 will drive replacement demand
4. Overseas market breakthrough
   : 2026 export target of 50,000 units [4]

:

1. Purchase tax reduction phasing out
   : In 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax will be adjusted from full exemption to half exemption, with a maximum reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [5]
2. Slowing industry growth
   : The passenger car market is expected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year in 2026, with an overall market growth rate of only 1-3% [6]
3. Intensified competition
   : BBA accelerates electrification transformation; new forces like Xiaomi and Li Auto are making efforts

To achieve the 550,000-unit target, AITO needs:

Quarter	Target Sales Volume	Core Driver
Q1 2026	120,000-130,000 units	Launch of M6 and facelifted M5
Q2 2026	130,000-140,000 units	Capacity ramp-up of M6 and launch of M7 3.0
Q3 2026	140,000-150,000 units	Overseas model delivery and autumn promotion
Q4 2026	130,000-140,000 units	Year-end sales push and launch of facelifted M8/M9

---

:

• ADS System Iteration
  : The facelifted M5 will be equipped with the new generation HarmonyOS cockpit and Qiankun Intelligent Driving ADS 4.0 system [3]
• Full-scenario Autonomous Driving
  : Supports full-scenario autonomous driving from parking space to parking space, with reserved ADS 4.0 upgrade capability [7]
• Technological Leading Advantage
  : L3-level 120 km/h autonomous driving technology has not been surpassed by other companies in the short term [4]

:

• HarmonyOS Cockpit
  : Upgraded from simple question-and-answer interaction to a natural all-round partner
• Proactive Service
  : For example, if the owner is detected sleeping in the back seat, it automatically lowers the curtain, dims the windows, and reduces the volume [8]
• Vehicle-mounted Large Model
  : Introduces ByteDance Doubao Large Model to realize full-car interaction [8]

In 2026, AITO will form a complete SUV matrix:

Model	Price Range	Positioning	2026 Plan
M5	220,000-280,000 yuan	Entry Luxury	Major facelift, equipped with ADS 4.0
M6	280,000-320,000 yuan	Mid-to-high-end Family	New model, fills the gap
M7	300,000-350,000 yuan	Mainstream Family	Version 3.0 upgrade
M8	400,000-450,000 yuan	High-end Luxury	Facelift to enhance luxury
M9	500,000-590,000 yuan	Flagship Luxury	Facelift to sprint high-end market

:

• Fills the price gap between M5 and M7, accurately targeting young family users who pursue high-end quality but have limited budgets
• Expected monthly sales of 10,000 units, becoming a key driver for expanding user base [3]
• Forms a complete SUV sequence of “M5-M6-M7-M8-M9”, realizing full coverage of the 220,000-590,000 yuan price range

:

• Average Product Price
  : In the first half of 2025, the average price of the AITO brand exceeded 400,000 yuan (including M9’s transaction average price of 550,000 yuan) [9]
• Gross Margin
  : Reached 28.93% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, ranking first among domestic car companies [10]
• Profit per Vehicle
  : Net profit attributable to parent company was 2.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.03% [10]

:

Sales structure in the first half of 2025:
- AITO M9 + M8: Accounted for over 65%, both are high-gross-margin models
- AITO M9: Single model sales revenue exceeded 140 billion yuan (calculated by 260,000 units × 550,000 yuan average price) [1]
- AITO M8 + M9 are produced on the same line: Effectively dilutes costs, with a gross margin of 28.93% [1]

:

1. Markets Entered
   : AITO pure electric series has entered 11 overseas countries [7]
2. European Breakthrough
   : At the Paris Auto Show, AITO M9 received 13,000 orders in 1 minute, setting a record for Chinese high-end models going overseas [7]
3. Pricing Advantage
   : Starting price of 60,000 euros is only 70% of European competitors of the same level, showing strong international competitiveness [7]
4. 2026 Target
   : Export 50,000 units, relying on Huawei’s overseas channels (over 1,000 stores) for rapid penetration [4]

:

• Indonesia Smart Factory
  : Annual capacity gradually increases to 100,000 units [7]
• Mexico Factory
  : Planned to reach production in 2026 to radiate the North American market [7]

:

• 3 Super Factories
  : Have the capacity to deliver 1 million units annually [1]
• Chongqing Super Factory
  :
  • Covers 2,700 mu, deploys 1,600 intelligent equipment and 3,000 industrial robots
  • 100% automation in stamping, welding, and painting links; over 80% automation in final assembly links
  • Comprehensive capacity of 30 seconds per unit, can cover more than 500 configuration combinations [7]

:

• R&D Investment
  : Approximately 5.2 billion yuan in R&D investment in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 154.9% [1]
• Battery Cost
  : Cooperates with CATL to build factories, reducing battery costs by 15% [11]
• Supply Chain Optimization
  : Vehicle manufacturing cost reduced by 18% [11]
• Magic Cube Platform
  : Parts commonality rate reaches 85% [11]

---

:

• In 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax will be adjusted from full exemption to half exemption
• The tax reduction per new energy vehicle does not exceed 15,000 yuan [5]

:

1. Cross-year Purchase Tax Subsidy
   : Launches cross-year purchase tax subsidy programs for M9, M8, M7 2026 model, and M5, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan [2]
2. High-end Market Resilience
   : The high-end market is less affected by policies, resisting shocks with technological advantages and brand premium [5]
3. Enterprise Profit Concession to Hedge
   : Uses enterprise profit concessions to smooth expected fluctuations caused by policy switching

:

• “Anti-involution” is unfavorable to mid-to-low-end car companies, making it more difficult to compete by low-price promotion and large price cuts
• Has little impact on high-price-range car companies, as brand power and emotional value are more important [6]

:

1. High-end Positioning Advantage
   : AITO’s average price exceeds 400,000 yuan, which is in the favorable range of the “anti-involution” policy
2. Value Competition Replaces Price Competition
   : The intelligent luxury car track breaks away from the price war red ocean and shifts to value competition based on technical barriers, scenario experience, and brand premium [4]
3. Create User Demand
   : Create demand through technology and brand instead of simple price cuts [6]

:

• Overall Market: Passenger car market is expected to reach 23.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [6]
• New Energy Market: Penetration rate is expected to exceed 60% [6]
• HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility: Overall sales in the first half of the year will reach 550,000-650,000 units, with monthly average sales maintained at 90,000-110,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 45%-60% [3]

:

• BBA
  : Accelerate electrification transformation, posing a threat to AITO’s high-end market
• Xiaomi Auto
  : Forecast sales of 250,000-300,000 units in the first half of 2026, relying on YU7 and facelifted SU7 [3]
• Li Auto
  : Steady growth with multi-brand strategy
• Xpeng, Leapmotor
  : Compete for the top of the third echelon with differential strategies [3]

---

:

• Base Sales
  : Approximately 450,000 units in 2025
• Target Increment
  : Need to grow by about 100,000 units (+22%)
• Core Support
  : New model M6 (monthly increase of 10,000 units) + facelift upgrades + 50,000 units from overseas markets
• Time Nodes
  : If M6 is launched in Q2, it needs to maintain an average monthly delivery of 55,000 units from Q2 to Q4

:

1. M6 is launched on schedule and capacity ramps up quickly
2. The facelifted M5 has a warm market response
3. Overseas markets break through as planned
4. Facelifted M8/M9 continue to sell well

:

1. Technical Barriers
   : Huawei ADS 4.0 intelligent driving system + HarmonyOS cockpit, leading advantage in L3-level autonomous driving
2. Product Matrix
   : Full coverage of M5-M9, M6 fills key price gaps
3. High-end Premium
   : Average price exceeds 400,000 yuan, gross margin of 28.93% (industry-leading)
4. Global Layout
   : 11 overseas markets + 13,000 orders for M9 at Paris Auto Show, 2026 export target of 50,000 units
5. Manufacturing Advantages
   : 3 super factories, annual capacity of 1 million units, outstanding intelligent manufacturing and cost control capabilities

1. Intensified Market Competition
   : BBA accelerates electrification transformation, posing a threat to AITO’s high-end market
2. Impact of Policy Phasing Out
   : Half-exemption of purchase tax may抑制部分中低端需求 (suppress some mid-to-low-end demand)
3. Huawei Dependency Risk
   : Highly dependent on Huawei for intelligent driving and cockpit technologies; need to pay attention to cooperation stability
4. Uncertainty in Overseas Markets
   : Geopolitics and trade policies may affect overseas expansion progress
5. Capacity Ramp-up Risk
   : Uncertainty about whether new models like M6 can quickly meet demand

---

: Although Seres AITO’s 550,000-unit sales target is challenging, it has a foundation for achievement based on its strong product strength, Huawei’s technical empowerment, high-end positioning, and overseas market breakthroughs. The differential growth strategy for 2026 is clear, with the core being to build an all-round competitive advantage through “technology + product + brand + global layout”. Against the background of subsidy phasing out and industry price wars, it has taken a path of value competition rather than price competition.

: Gilin AI Financial Data Platform

:

[1] Economic Observer - AITO M9 Delivers Over 260,000 Units to Lead High-end Market; Seres Starts New Journey with Capital Good News
https://www.163.com/dy/article/KFMLVGPC05199DKK.html

[2] IT Home - Seres Kang Bo: AITO’s Full Series Models Delivered Over 50,000 New Cars in November, Setting a New Monthly High
https://www.ithome.com/0/901/981.htm

[3] Autohome - Five Realms Compete! HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility’s 2026 New Energy Market Battle
https://chejiahao.autohome.com.cn/info/24596151

[4] Xueqiu - Under the High Growth Expectation of L3 Intelligent Luxury Car Track, the Underlying Support for Seres’ High Revenue and Profit Growth
https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251219124745165221510

[5] Sina Finance - Car Companies “Guarantee” Purchase Tax at the End of the Year; New Energy Vehicle Market Buffers Cross-year
https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/7517400647/1c0126e4705907xajs

[6] Sichuan Online - 2026 New Energy Vehicle Market Outlook: Penetration Rate Expected to Exceed 60%
https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202511/83161448.html

[7] Sohu Auto - CCTV Certified, AITO with 900,000 Deliveries, Paves the Way for China’s Auto Power with Innovation
https://m.sohu.com/a/963661907_118579?scm=10001.325_13-325_13.0.0-0-0-0-0.5_32

[8] 36Kr - Doubao Large Model on Board Seres’ Own Brand
https://m.36kr.com/p/3423694660275841

[9] Wall Street Journal Chinese Edition - Seres Half-year Report Released: Revenue Slightly Declines, Net Profit Surges 81% Year-on-Year
https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754568

[10] Economic Reference Network - Seres Reports Good News in Both Sales and Capital; High-endization Strategy Initially Shows Profit Effect
http://jjckb.xinhuanet.com/20251202/e467bba73a2144584df85f06c415784/c.html

[11] East Money - Seres 2025 Q3 and Full-year Performance Forecast Analysis
https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251013144400588223710