Leike Defense (002413.SZ) Limit-Up Analysis and Subsequent Trend Forecast

As a Chinese defense technology enterprise, Leike Defense (002413.SZ) closed at $11.41 on December 30, 2025, with an increase of 10.03% (limit-up) and a trading volume of 213.80M (slightly higher than the 20-day average of 204.11M) [0]. From the price trend perspective, the stock has been in a strong upward channel for a long time, with an increase of 110.91% over 3 months and a YTD increase of 171.67%. This limit-up pushed it to break through the 52-week high [0].

The main drivers of the limit-up are:

1. Price Momentum Effect
   : The continuous upward trend attracts momentum traders to follow, and breaking through the 52-week high further strengthens bullish sentiment [0];
2. Sector Linkage Effect
   : Although no direct positive news for the company was found, the escalation of global geopolitical tensions, combined with China’s sanctions on U.S. defense enterprises, has driven the overall activity of the domestic defense technology sector [1][2].

The financial fundamentals of the stock are seriously deviated from its price trend: negative P/E (-42.26), negative EPS (-$0.27), and negative ROE (-10.36%) indicate poor profitability. The rise lacks fundamental support and relies more on speculative momentum and sector sentiment [0]. This means that the current stock price may have deviated from its intrinsic value, and there is a valuation bubble.

1. Valuation Bubble Risk
   : High increase on the basis of negative profits, valuation lacks fundamental support [0];
2. Momentum Reversal Risk
   : Speculative rise is easily affected by emotional changes, which may lead to rapid correction [0];
3. News Risk
   : If the sentiment of the defense sector cools down or negative policies emerge, the stock price may fall sharply.

If it can continue to benefit from policy support and industry development in the defense technology sector, or if the company’s fundamentals show substantial improvement, the stock price may continue its upward trend.

Leike Defense is currently at a 52-week high of $11.41 with a clear resistance level [0]; support levels can be watched at yesterday’s closing price of $10.37 and today’s opening price of $9.45 [0]. If it breaks through the $11.41 resistance level, the stock price may continue to rise; if it falls below the $10.37 support level, the risk of correction needs to be vigilant. Investors should note that the rise of this stock is mainly driven by momentum and sector sentiment, lacks profit support, and needs to carefully assess risks.