Metals Trade Volatility: Silver’s 2025 Performance on Track for 1979 Levels

On December 30, 2025, at 4:14 AM EST, CNBC’s “Squawk Box” featured TD Cowen Director of Commodities Strategy Daniel Ghali discussing the metals trade, focusing on recent declines in silver, gold, and copper prices from their 2025 highs [1]. Short-term volatility was pronounced: silver futures fell 8.7% on December 29 (its largest one-day decline in nearly five years) before recovering ~5% by 4:00 AM EST on December 30, coinciding with the segment [2][3]. Gold futures declined 4.5%, and copper futures fell 4.8% on December 29, with modest recoveries on December 30 [2][4].

Drivers of the sell-off included the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raising overnight margin requirements for silver futures to $25,000 (the second increase that month), triggering forced liquidations among leveraged traders, and profit-taking by investors locking in gains [4]. Despite short-term swings, silver remained the top-performing 2025 precious metal with ~150% YTD spot market gains (matching 1979 levels), narrowly edging platinum’s 135% return. Gold also had a strong year, with spot prices up 72% YTD and reaching a record $4,549.71 per ounce on December 27—the largest annual gain for gold since 1979 as well [4][5]. The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) opened at $69.19 on December 30 and closed at $68.34, reflecting post-segment price movement [0].

1. Regulatory Impact on Commodity Volatility
   : The CME’s margin hikes highlight how regulatory adjustments can trigger sharp price swings in leveraged commodity markets, underscoring the importance of monitoring exchange policies alongside market fundamentals.
2. Precious Metals Outperformance Context
   : Both silver and gold achieved their best annual performances since 1979, indicating broad-based demand for safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets in 2025. Silver’s larger YTD gain (~150% vs. gold’s 72%) suggests stronger speculative interest or unquantified industrial demand drivers (e.g., solar panels, electronics).
3. Timing of Market Events
   : The CNBC segment occurred hours before the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes (released at 2:00 PM EST), creating potential for post-segment market shifts based on interest rate and U.S. dollar-related announcements.

1. Risks
   :
   • Speculative Volatility
     : The 2025 metals rally’s speculative nature, driven by leveraged trading, makes prices vulnerable to further swings from margin calls or profit-taking.
   • Regulatory Changes
     : Additional margin increases or other exchange actions could exacerbate market volatility.
   • Macro Factors
     : Fed policy decisions, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. dollar strength will continue to impact precious metals prices.
2. Opportunities
   :
   • Long-Term Investor Interest
     : Silver’s historic YTD performance may attract long-term investors despite short-term volatility.
   • Industrial Demand Support
     : If detailed data confirms strong industrial usage for silver (e.g., in clean energy technologies), this could sustain long-term price growth.

Silver leads 2025 metals markets with ~150% YTD gains (best since 1979), followed by gold (72% YTD, record high $4,549.71 on December 27). The December 29 sell-off was driven by CME margin hikes and profit-taking, with partial recoveries on December 30. Critical monitoring points include:

• Exact 1979 performance comparison and drivers for that year.
• Detailed CME margin requirement changes.
• Breakdown of industrial demand for silver in 2025.
• Impact of December Fed meeting minutes on post-segment metals prices.

All analysis is based on cited sources and provides objective market context without investment recommendations.