Pop Mart (9992.HK) In-Depth Investment Analysis Report

Pop Mart’s overseas business performance is phenomenal. According to the latest financial data [1][2][3]:

• Overseas revenue reached
  RMB 5.07 billion
  , a year-on-year increase of
  375.2%
• The company has set up offline stores in 18 countries, with 2597 robot stores
• Business covers 37 countries globally, with official website pages available in 37 markets

• American Market
  : Revenue of RMB 2.265 billion, a year-on-year surge of
  1142.3%
• Europe and Other Regions
  : Revenue of RMB 478 million, a year-on-year growth of
  729.2%
• Asia-Pacific Market
  : Revenue of RMB 2.851 billion, a year-on-year growth of
  257.8%
• The overall performance of overseas business far exceeded market expectations, becoming the core engine driving the company’s performance

• Overseas market revenue increased by
  365%-370%
  year-on-year
• American market grew by
  1265%-1270%
  year-on-year
• Europe and other regions grew by
  735%-740%
  year-on-year

This growth trajectory indicates that Pop Mart is successfully replicating its success model in the Chinese market, building brand influence globally through the strategies of “emotional consumption” and “IP full-industry chain operation”.

As the core character of THE MONSTERS family, Labubu has become Pop Mart’s

[1][3][4]:

• THE MONSTERS family (including Labubu) achieved revenue of
  RMB 4.814 billion
  in H1 2025, accounting for
  34.7%
  of total revenue
• Labubu’s third-generation “High Energy Ahead” series and “Weird Flavor Convenience Store” series figures are popular among global fans
• The company’s official website sales surged by
  2984.2%
  year-on-year to USD 1.2338 million, accounting for
  39.2%
  of the region’s total revenue

Pop Mart has evolved from a traditional “blind box manufacturer” to an “IP full-industry chain operator”. The company has 13 artist IPs with revenue exceeding RMB 100 million, including MOLLY (RMB 1.357 billion), SKULLPANDA (RMB 1.221 billion), and CRYBABY (RMB 1.218 billion) [2]. This diversified IP matrix effectively reduces the risk of relying on a single IP.

Founder Wang Ning stated at the 2025 interim results conference: “We originally hoped to become the Chinese version of Disney; now we hope to become Pop Mart of the world.” [1] He expects 2025 revenue to reach RMB 30 billion “easily”, and may even exceed RMB 40 billion.

• Operating Revenue
  : RMB 13.876 billion, a year-on-year
  increase of 204.4%
  , exceeding full-year 2024 revenue
• Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders
  : RMB 4.574 billion, a year-on-year
  increase of 396.5%
• Pretax Profit
  : RMB 6.157 billion, a year-on-year
  increase of 401.2%
• Adjusted Net Profit
  : RMB 4.71 billion, a year-on-year
  increase of 362.8%

• The company’s gross margin remains at a high level of approximately
  70%
  , significantly higher than competitors (TOP TOY’s gross margin was 32.4% in the same period) [2]
• The high gross margin is mainly due to the high proportion of self-owned IPs and low licensing costs
• Overseas markets have higher gross margins, further enhancing overall profitability

As of December 2025, Pop Mart’s market capitalization is approximately

(about USD 44 billion), an increase of more than since its 2020 IPO [2][3]. The company’s stock price once rose to a record high of HKD 253, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 400 billion.

• Pop Mart’s current market capitalization has surpassed traditional toy giants:
  • Mattel (Barbie manufacturer)
    : Market capitalization of approximately USD 20 billion
  • Sanrio (Hello Kitty parent company)
    : Market capitalization of approximately USD 4 billion
• Second only to LEGO in the global toy industry

1. High Growth Premium
   : Overseas business grew by 375%-1142% year-on-year, far higher than the growth rate of the traditional consumer goods industry
2. IP Asset Value
   : The company has a complete IP matrix and continuous incubation capabilities, with a deep moat
3. Broad Market Space
   : China’s trendy toy industry scale is expected to increase from RMB 58.7 billion in 2024 to
   RMB 213.3 billion
   in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of
   20.9%
   [3]
4. Globalization Potential
   : The proportion of overseas business is still low (about 40% in H1 2025), with huge growth space

1. High Valuation Multiple
   : Based on current market capitalization and 2025 projected revenue (RMB 30 billion), the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) is approximately
   10-12x
   , significantly higher than the traditional consumer goods industry
2. IP Lifecycle Risk
   : Historically, toy booms (such as Beanie Babies) are often unsustainable, and Labubu’s popularity may start to cool down by the end of 2025 [4]
3. Intensified Competition
   : Competitors like TOP TOY, Card Games, and 52TOYS have submitted IPO applications, which will dilute market share
4. Market Sentiment Fluctuation
   : The stock price has fallen by about 25% since its August high, indicating market caution about high valuations

• JPMorgan Chase
  : Upgraded from “Neutral” to “Overweight”, believing the valuation is attractive
• China Merchants Securities
  : Maintains “Strong Buy” rating
• Zhongtai Securities, UBS, Huatai Securities
  : Gives “Buy” rating

Based on the better-than-expected Q3 results, many institutions have raised their target prices, but there are differences in the market regarding the excessive short-term gains.

1. IP Incubation Capability
   : In-house design team + global designer network, continuously producing blockbuster IPs
2. Full Industry Chain Integration
   : Vertical integration capabilities from design, production to channels
3. Member System Stickiness
   : Cumulative registered members of 59.12 million, with members contributing
   91.2%
   of sales and a repurchase rate of
   50.8%
4. Global First-Mover Advantage
   : Launched overseas layout in 2018, has established brand awareness

1. Single IP Dependence
   : Labubu contributes more than one-third of revenue; if its popularity fades, performance will be significantly affected
2. Macroeconomic Fluctuations
   : As an optional consumer product, it is sensitive to economic cycles
3. Cultural Aesthetic Changes
   : The trendy toy industry relies on pop culture trends, which are uncertain
4. Geopolitical Risks
   : Overseas business expansion may be affected by changes in international relations

Pop Mart, through the phenomenal IP Labubu and explosive growth in overseas markets, has successfully proven the feasibility of its vision of “becoming Pop Mart of the world”. The company has shown strong strength in IP operation, globalization layout, and profitability.

Considering:

• Current actual market capitalization is approximately
  HKD 340 billion
  (far exceeding HKD 160 billion)
• Overseas business continues to grow at a high speed
• Labubu IP’s global influence continues to expand
• 2025 revenue is expected to exceed RMB 30 billion

1. The current valuation has fully reflected optimistic expectations, and there is a high risk of stock price fluctuations
2. Close attention should be paid to changes in Labubu’s popularity in H2 2025
3. It is recommended to pay attention to the company’s new IP incubation progress and the sustainability of overseas business

• Long-term investors can buy on dips to share the dividends of globalization
• Short-term traders need to pay attention to the risk of valuation correction
• Focus on quarterly performance data and IP performance

: The popularity of the trendy toy industry is cyclical; investors should establish reasonable expectations and pay attention to changes in the company’s fundamentals.

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[1] Yahoo Finance - “Mini Labubu Sells Out Before Launch! Pop Mart’s H1 Revenue Surpasses Full-Year 2024 Revenue” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/迷你LABUBU未賣先爆-泡泡瑪特上半年狂攬去年整年營收-今飆漲10-市值破4千億港元-054520740.html)

[2] Yahoo Finance - “Can TOP TOY Challenge Pop Mart’s Dominance?” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/top-toy能否撼動泡泡瑪特的王者地位-031827470.html)

[3] Yahoo Finance - “Pop Mart Opens Higher and Rebounds Strongly by 7.8% Today! Expert: Q3 Overseas Performance Surges 3x, Stock Price Rebound Shows Resilience” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/泡泡瑪特今開高強彈7-8-專家-q3海外業績暴增3倍-股價反彈顯韌性-025003308.html)

[4] Yahoo Finance - “Pop Mart sees revenue hitting over $4 billion this year, to launch mini Labubus” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labubu-maker-pop-mart-executives-024433140.html)

[5] Global Times - “‘Chinese manufacturing, culture propel our business success’, says Pop Mart’s Wang Ning” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-times-chinese-manufacturing-culture-173500639.html)

[6] Forbes - “Labubu: How Asia’s Quirky Toy Became A Global Business Phenomenon” (https://www.forbes.com/sites/sylvanaqsinha/2025/07/01/labubu-how-asias-quirky-toy-became-a-global-business-phenomenon/)