Analysis of Inventory Value and Asset-Liability Ratio Risks of Ganfeng Lithium

According to the latest financial data [0][1], Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) faces the following key financial conditions:

Indicator	Value	Risk Assessment
Inventory Scale	10.6 billion yuan	High inventory occupies capital
Asset-Liability Ratio	57.59%	At historical high
Current Ratio	0.73	Relatively high short-term debt repayment pressure
Operating Cash Flow	300 million yuan (2025H1)	Plummeted 92% year-on-year
Ongoing Projects	18.6 billion yuan	Huge capital expenditure pressure

Based on the current scenario of lithium carbonate price at about 100,000 yuan/ton [2][3]:

Lithium Price Scenario	Price (10,000 yuan/ton)	Inventory Value (100 million yuan)	Asset-Liability Ratio	Change Range
Drop by 50%	5	53.00	64.88%	+6.88%
Current Price	10	106.00	58.00%	Benchmark
Rise by 50%	15	159.00	52.44%	-5.56%
Double	20	212.00	47.85%	-10.15%

• If lithium prices double from the current 100,000 yuan/ton to 200,000 yuan/ton, inventory will appreciate by 10.6 billion yuan, which can theoretically reduce the asset-liability ratio from 58% to about 48%
• However, according to the accounting principle of “lower of cost or market”, the inventory appreciation part will not be fully included in profits
• After deducting the impact of inventory impairment reversal and corporate income tax, the actual improvement range may only be 5-7 percentage points
• It is difficult to completely resolve the high liability risk of 58% relying solely on inventory appreciation
  [1]

Indicator	Current Value	Signal Interpretation
Support Level	$62.63	Important short-term support
Resistance Level	$65.67	Important short-term pressure
Trend Judgment	Sideways consolidation	No clear direction

Indicator	Value	Signal
MACD	No crossover	Neutral to bullish
KDJ	K:58.5, D:70.1, J:35.3	Death cross signal, bearish
RSI(14)	Normal range	Neutral

• Beta Coefficient
  : 0.88 (relatively low volatility compared to the market)
• Trading Volume Change
  : Need to pay attention to volume breakout signals
• Northbound Capital Flow
  : Reflects foreign capital sentiment

1. Inventory Impairment Risk
   : If lithium prices fall again, the 10.6 billion yuan inventory will need to be provisioned for impairment [1]
2. Cash Flow Pressure
   : Operating cash flow plummeted by 92% year-on-year, highly dependent on debt financing
3. Capital Demand for Ongoing Projects
   : 18.6 billion yuan in ongoing projects continue to consume cash
4. Industry Cycle Risk
   : The supply-demand pattern of the lithium industry has not yet fully reversed

• Lithium price trend (core variable): Focus on the supply-demand balance in 2026
• Whether operating cash flow can turn positive: A key indicator to judge the ability to “support oneself”
• Whether there is an equity financing plan: Private placement can effectively reduce leverage
• Progress of new production capacity commissioning: Determines the profit realization capacity in the next cycle

: Doubling lithium prices can improve the asset-liability ratio to a certain extent, but it is difficult to completely resolve the high liability risk of 58%. Investors need to comprehensively consider the lithium price trend, the company’s cash flow status and the progress of production capacity, and make prudent decisions [1][2][3].

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[0] Jinling API - Ganfeng Lithium Company Profile and Technical Analysis Data
[1] China Finance Online - 《Ganfeng Lithium, the Test is Ahead》(http://mp.cnfol.com/52698/article/1765760514-142166117.html)
[2] Securities Daily Website - 《2025 Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuate Widely, Industry Development Expected to Be More Stable Next Year》(https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-25/doc-inhcznyc8777884.shtml)
[3] CLS.cn - 《Lithium Carbonate Futures Break Through 100,000 Yuan Mark! 2026 Spot Price Forecast by Industry Insiders》(https://www.cls.cn/detail/2205409)