Nancy Curtin’s 2026 Forecast: Higher Stock Prices, More Rate Cuts Amid "Innovation" Bull Market

This analysis is based on the Barron’s article published on December 31, 2025, featuring Nancy Curtin’s 2026 market outlook [1]. According to internal market data [0], major US indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones) exhibited mixed but relatively stable performance between December 22-30, 2025, with daily changes ranging from +0.19% to -0.59%. On December 30, Real Estate was the top-performing sector (+0.57%), while Financial Services underperformed (-0.59%); innovation-related sectors Technology and Communication Services posted modest gains (+0.05% and +0.23% respectively) [0].

Curtin’s forecast of higher stock prices and “more rate cuts” in 2026 stands in contrast to the current market consensus. CME FedWatch indicates only 2 rate cuts are expected in 2026, starting in late April [2], while FOMC minutes show policymakers discussed pausing rate cuts after the December 2025 meeting [3]. Goldman Sachs also forecasts just 2 cuts in 2026 [4].

1. The “innovation” bull market thesis highlights the potential for continued growth in sectors like Technology and Communication Services, which showed modest gains in late December 2025 [0].
2. Curtin’s more optimistic rate cut outlook (vs. consensus) introduces a divergent viewpoint that could impact market sentiment if her underlying reasoning becomes public.
3. The mixed sector performance on December 30 reflects ongoing market uncertainty, with Real Estate outperforming (potentially due to rate cut expectations) and Financial Services underperforming [0].

• Risks
  :
  1. Downside risk for stock prices if Curtin’s forecast of “more rate cuts” does not materialize, as the market currently prices in only 2 cuts [2][3][4].
  2. Fed policy uncertainty, with FOMC minutes indicating discussion of pausing rate cuts after December 2025 [3].
  3. Regulatory and competitive risks to innovation sectors (e.g., AI, tech) that underpin the “innovation” bull market thesis.
• Opportunities
  :
  1. Potential upside for innovation-related sectors if the “innovation” bull market materializes.
  2. Investors may find value in sectors positioned to benefit from rate cuts (e.g., Real Estate, which outperformed on December 30 [0]).

• Nancy Curtin (A1Ti Tiedemann Global) predicts higher stock prices and more rate cuts in 2026, driven by an “innovation” bull market [1].
• Major US indices exhibited mixed but stable performance from December 22-30, 2025 [0].
• Market consensus expects 2 rate cuts in 2026, starting in late April (CME FedWatch, FOMC minutes, Goldman Sachs) [2][3][4].
• Technology and Communication Services posted modest gains on December 30, 2025 [0].
• Real Estate outperformed (+0.57%) while Financial Services underperformed (-0.59%) on December 30, 2025 [0].