Analysis of Divergent Trends in U.S. Large-Cap Tech Stocks: Is the Valuation Logic Being Reshaped?

Based on currently available real-time quote data (near closing on December 31, 2025) [0]:

• Against the trend gain: NVIDIA (NVDA) +0.66%
• Minor declines for some tech stocks: Amazon (AMZN) -0.65%, Meta -0.43%, Microsoft -0.50%, Apple -0.25%, Google -0.03%, Tesla -0.37%, Netflix -0.04%

There is a time window difference between the user’s description of “pre-market widespread divergence (Intel, NVIDIA, Tesla rising against the trend)” and the real-time data I obtained. Existing data shows INTC fell slightly by -0.15% and TSLA by -0.37% on that day, which is inconsistent with the “pre-market general rise”. Therefore, this article will analyze based on the latest available trading session data and treat the pre-market “rising against the trend” as a situational observation requiring additional verification.

Market indices (near closing on December 31, 2025) [0]:

• S&P 500: -0.30%
• Nasdaq: -0.23%
• Dow Jones: -0.29%

Sector performance (December 31, 2025) [0]: The tech sector fell about -0.45%, making it one of the weaker-performing sectors of the day.

This indicates:

• The market overall shows cautious/weak sentiment
• Tech stocks are generally under pressure, adjusting in sync with the broader market
• Against this backdrop, NVDA closed slightly higher against the trend, forming a divergence

1. NVIDIA (NVDA): AI GPU Demand and Supply Chain Focus

• Recent public reports focus on discussions and chart presentations of “2025 AI GPU supply chain and market demand” [1]. From multiple sources:
  • Market expectations for long-term demand for NVDA AI computing chips remain relatively positive
  • Media and community discussions revolve around new cycle product rhythms, supply chains, and competitive landscapes
• Financial health: Strong free cash flow (latest ~$60.9 billion) [0], supporting AI investment and capital expenditure
• Valuation level: P/E ~46.8 (TTM) [0], which is relatively high among similar AI chip stocks, indicating the market has fully priced in its growth
• Technicals: In the December 31, 2025 quotes, NVDA was more resilient than most tech stocks (+0.66%) [0]

2. Intel (INTC): Transformation Expectations and Foundry Business Verification Nodes

• The CEO called 2025 a “defining year” and emphasized it as a “critical year”, with its stock price rebounding significantly in 2025 [2]. Related reports also mention:
  • The U.S. government provided approximately $9 billion in funding support (related to the CHIPS Act) [2]
  • Its manufacturing business is still seeking major external clients and has not yet achieved a breakthrough [2]
  • Regarding the most advanced process (e.g., 18A), there are reports of rumors that NVDA suspended testing, but 18A has entered mass production at Fab 52 in Arizona [2]
• Financial status: Negative free cash flow (latest ~-$15.66 billion) [0], indicating its transformation/expansion is still in a high-investment phase
• Valuation: Significantly high TTM P/E (~620.8) [0], indicating the market has strong expectations for profit improvement and structural transformation
• Technicals: Slight drop of -0.15% in December 31, 2025 quotes [0], with a time difference compared to intraday/pre-market, so no assertion of “pre-market rise against the trend”

Combining public reports and data, the following structural changes can be seen:

1. Shift from “growth premium” to “profit visibility”

• High-valued companies (e.g., some cloud computing and AI concept stocks) face stricter profit and delivery requirements, and the market pays more attention to order, delivery, and implementation rhythms
• Companies with strong cash flow and high performance delivery are relatively resilient amid interest rate fluctuations and regulatory uncertainty

2. “Track Stratification” within the AI Industry Chain

• Upstream chips and computing power (represented by NVDA): Medium-to-long-term demand logic is still optimistic, but volatility increases, and competition and supply chain rhythms have a rising impact on pricing [1]
• Manufacturing and foundry (INTC): In the “technology/capacity verification period”, high capital expenditure and short-term profit pressure but valuation includes transformation options; its 18A process progress and external customer contracts are key catalysts [2]

3. Segmented fields and company characteristics become the main drivers of divergence

• NVDA’s strong FCF and AI track position enhance its relative resilience during adjustments [0]
• INTC’s transformation narrative attracts attention, but its profit delivery and foundry ramp-up progress will be the hard constraint on whether “belief” can continue [2]
• Other large tech stocks (software/platform/consumer hardware) are closer to macro Beta and valuation regression, and follow broader market fluctuations more obviously

• Short-term view: NVDA was more resilient than most tech stocks on that day, reflecting capital’s continued preference for the AI computing power track [0]; INTC’s trend and sentiment are more easily amplified by technology and order news due to uncertainties in transformation/foundry business
• Medium-to-long-term view: The valuation logic within tech stocks is evolving from “comprehensive AI premium” to dual screening of “track + company characteristics”:
  1. Cash flow quality, order/delivery rhythm, and technology/process delivery become the core of pricing
  2. For high-risk transformation and high-valued stocks, the market requires clearer milestones and visible returns
• Risk tips: Macro (interest rates/regulation), competitive landscape, AI demand cycle, and supply chain bottlenecks will continue to加剧分化 and volatility

[0] Jinling API Data (real-time quotes, financial analysis, market indices, sector performance)
[1] Web search results:
- Reddit: r/nvidia community (driver/support/RTX series discussion threads)
https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/?t=DAY
https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/1ppte14/game_ready_driver_59159_faqdiscussion/
https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/1pb52zk/tech_support_and_question_megathread_december/
- Graphics and charts (related to 2025 AI GPU supply chain and market demand):
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Cx8FMLWAPJ1JsgMcQd46Tg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQwNw--
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/.zIV8teRbJckpxCgbCP65g--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTM1OQ--
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/.JCOr4hnRDQ8uVZ.ihehgw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQzMQ--
[2] Web search results:
- Yahoo Finance / Benzinga:
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan Calls 2025 ‘Defining Year’ As Stock Soars 79%, Nvidia And SoftBank Deals Fuel Turnaround Despite Trump Conflict
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-ceo-lip-bu-tan-033106666.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
- Yahoo Finance:
Intel stock soared in 2025. But the chipmaker still has a long road ahead
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-stock-soared-in-2025-but-the-chipmaker-still-has-a-long-road-ahead-140004121.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
- Forbes:
Intel Stock: The 18A Reality Check
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/12/30/intel-stock-the-18a-reality-check/
[3] Web search results (tech stock return comparison chart for macro background reference):
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/9SKQSut3fv2gUGGGx30Sag--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQyNw--