Analysis of the Impact of South Korean Government Legal Review on Coupang's E-commerce Business and Valuation

Based on collected data, I will comprehensively analyze the potential impact of the South Korean government’s legal review on Coupang’s e-commerce business operations and valuation.

Coupang is South Korea’s largest e-commerce platform, known as the ‘Amazon of South Korea’. As of December 31, 2025, the company’s market capitalization was $43.26 billion, and its stock price was $23.69 [0].

According to the latest online search information, a major data breach occurred in 2025:

• June 24
  : Unauthorized access began via overseas servers
• November 18
  : Coupang first discovered approximately 4,500 accounts were affected
• November 29
  : Confirmed the actual impact range expanded to 33.7 million customer accounts (covering almost all South Korean users)
• November 30
  : Coupang CEO publicly apologized
• December 29
  : Announced an $1.17 billion compensation plan [1][2]

The South Korean government’s legal review of Coupang mainly focuses on the following aspects:

• Under South Korea’s Personal Information Protection Act, Coupang may face a fine of up to 4% of global revenue. Based on approximately $24.4 billion in revenue in 2024, the potential fine could reach $976 million [1]
• Investigation focus: Whether the company fulfilled reasonable security obligations and whether internal monitoring systems had defects
• Police have searched Coupang’s headquarters to obtain evidence [2]

According to online search information, U.S. law firm Kaplan Fox announced a securities law violation investigation into Coupang [4]:

• Delayed information disclosure: Significant inconsistency in information disclosure from reporting 4,500 affected accounts on November 20 to confirming 33.7 million accounts on November 29
• Misleading statements: The company failed to fully disclose the severity of risks to investors in a timely manner
• Class action lawsuit: Investors have filed a class action lawsuit, with the alleged period from August 6 to December 16, 2025 [4]

Coupang’s ownership structure has been questioned:

• Founder Kim Bum-seok holds super voting rights, which may harm minority shareholders’ interests
• Institutional investors (such as DWS and AllianzGI) voted against Kim at the 2025 Annual General Meeting, criticizing his failure to adequately address ESG risks [2]
• Independent shareholder advisory firm SquareWell Partners pointed out that Coupang’s ownership structure “may make it immune to addressing shareholder concerns related to governance” [2]

Although search results do not explicitly mention specific details of antitrust investigations:

• The South Korean government is reviewing “all available legal measures against e-commerce giant Coupang”
• China’s State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on “Guidelines for Antitrust Review of Large Platforms”, which may indicate a trend of strengthened regulation of the platform economy in Asia
• Coupang’s market dominance (surpassing traditional retailers like Shinsegae Group) may trigger reviews of platform monopoly behavior

• The 33.7 million user data breach is the largest in South Korean history
• Although the company claims no payment card information or login credentials were leaked, the leakage of names, addresses, and phone numbers may still lead to phishing attacks and identity theft risks
• Significant resources need to be invested in cybersecurity upgrades and customer relationship repair

• Direct Compensation Cost
  : $1.17 billion in shopping voucher compensation plan [1]
• Cybersecurity Investment
  : Need to upgrade encryption technology and deploy AI-driven threat detection systems
• Legal Fees
  :应对 multiple legal actions from South Korean government investigations and U.S. class action lawsuits
• Compliance Costs
  : Enhance data protection compliance teams and processes

• May face stricter data protection regulatory requirements
• Need to establish more transparent information disclosure mechanisms
• May be required to undergo regular third-party security audits

• Expansion into new markets like Taiwan and Singapore may face stricter reviews
• Japan’s Rocket Fresh delivery service and cross-border business may be affected

• Competitors (Naver, Kakao) may take this opportunity to gain market share
• Customers may switch to other e-commerce platforms, leading to user churn risks

According to data, since the data breach was made public:

• Stock price dropped 25.95% from early November to now
  , from $32.01 to $23.70 [0]
• 52-week range
  : $19.02 - $34.08, current stock price is close to the 52-week low [0]
• Increased Volatility
  : Daily volatility standard deviation is 2.37% [0]

• Compensation Plan: $1.17 billion (about 3.8% of 2024 revenue)
• Potential Regulatory Fines: Up to $976 million (about 4% of 2024 revenue)
• Legal Fees and Cybersecurity Upgrades: Expected to be hundreds of millions of dollars
• Total Potential Financial Impact
  : $2-2.5 billion, accounting for about 4.6-5.8% of market capitalization

• 2024 fiscal year net profit margin was only 1.16%, operating margin 2.31% [0]
• The above costs may significantly affect profitability in the next few quarters
• Analysts’ average target price is $40, which is a 68.9% upside from the current stock price [0], but needs to be revised downward to reflect new risk factors

• Growth rate assumptions may need to be lowered: Slow business expansion, increased competition
• Discount rate may rise: Increased regulatory risks lead to higher equity risk premiums
• Terminal value may decrease: Increased uncertainty in long-term growth prospects

• Current P/E ratio is 110.81 times, which is at a high level [0]
• Regulatory risks may lead to valuation multiple compression
• Compared to Amazon (P/E about 60 times) and Alibaba (P/E about 15 times), Coupang’s valuation premium may be unsustainable

• Multiple institutional investors voted against management at the 2025 AGM, reflecting governance concerns [2]
• The lead plaintiff deadline for the U.S. class action lawsuit is February 17, 2026 [4], and more lawsuits may be faced in the future

• Analysts still maintain a “Buy” rating (93.8% Buy, 6.2% Hold) [0]
• Major shareholders like SoftBank may provide support

• Environmental and social responsibility scores may decline (data protection belongs to the social responsibility dimension)
• Corporate governance scores will be negatively affected by dual-class share structure
• ESG funds may be forced to reduce holdings, causing selling pressure

• PIPC Fine: $200-400 million (about 1-2% of global revenue)
• Mandatory improvement measures and regular audits
• No mandatory splitting or business restrictions

• User churn rate increases by 5-10%
• Need to increase marketing spending to rebuild trust
• Growth slows by 2-3 percentage points

• Stock price remains in the range of $22-28
• P/E ratio compresses to 80-90 times
• Market capitalization falls to $38-45 billion

• Compensation plan effectively restores user trust
• Government accepts rectification measures, fine is below $200 million
• Cybersecurity upgrades are regarded as industry standards

• User retention rate exceeds expectations
• New business expansion is not affected
• Resumes high-speed growth in 2026

• Stock price rebounds above $30
• Market capitalization returns to over $50 billion

• Fine approaches the upper limit ($800-1000 million)
• Mandatory business splitting or data localization requirements
• Antitrust investigation leads to business model adjustments

• Large number of users switch to competitors
• Long-term damage to brand image
• International expansion is restricted

• Stock price falls below $20
• Market capitalization shrinks to below $30 billion
• Financing capacity is limited, affecting long-term development

-建议 wait for regulatory penalties to be clear before making decisions

• Follow the progress of the U.S. class action lawsuit in February 2026
• Monitor changes in user retention rate and market share

• Coupang’s core competitiveness (logistics network, Rocket Delivery) still exists
• South Korea’s e-commerce market still has growth potential
• But need to accept lower growth expectations and higher regulatory compliance costs

• PIPC penalty decision timeline
• Cross-departmental working group investigation conclusions
• Whether antitrust investigation is initiated

• Quarterly active user count changes
• Wow member renewal rate
• Average order value and order volume

• 2026 Q1-Q2 profit situation
• Cybersecurity and compliance costs
• Cash flow status

The impact of the South Korean government’s legal review on Coupang is

:

1. Financial Impact
   : $1.17 billion in compensation plus potential fines and costs, total impact may reach $2-2.5 billion

2. Operational Impact
   : Customer trust damage, increased compliance costs, restricted business expansion

3. Valuation Impact
   : Stock price has reflected some pessimistic expectations (down 26%), but valuation still faces downward pressure, especially P/E multiples may compress

4. Long-term Impact
   : Coupang may need to adapt to a stricter regulatory environment, and its “super platform” status in South Korea may be subject to more comprehensive platform economy regulation

, although Coupang’s core business model remains competitive, the significant increase in regulatory risks has put the company under medium-term profit pressure and valuation revaluation. Investors should closely monitor regulatory progress and the company’s response measures, and carefully evaluate the risk-reward ratio.

---

[0] Jinling API Data - Coupang Company Profile, Real-time Stock Price and Historical Price Data

[1] SecurityAffairs - “Coupang announces $1.17B compensation plan for 33.7M data breach victims” (https://securityaffairs.com/186331/security/coupang-announces-1-17b-compensation-plan-for-33-7m-data-breach-victims.html)

[2] The Korea Herald - “Coupang’s ownership structure under scrutiny as US class action advances” (https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10632824)

[3] Korea Bizwire - “Coupang Files Self-Investigation Results With SEC, Defying South Korean Government” (http://koreabizwire.com/coupang-files-self-investigation-results-with-sec-defying-south-korean-government/341146)

[4] Kaplan Fox via National Law Review - “Kaplan Fox Alerts Investors to a Securities Class Action Against Coupang, Inc. (CPNG)” (https://natlawreview.com/press-releases/kaplan-fox-alerts-investors-securities-class-action-against-coupang-inc-cpng)

[5] Reuters - “South Korean police probe massive data leak at Coupang” (https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/south-korean-police-probe-massive-data-leak-coupang-2025-12-01/)

[6] KED Global - “Coupang users to file class-action lawsuit in US over data leak” (https://www.kedglobal.com/e-commerce/newsView/ked202512090004)

[7] The Korea Herald - “Coupang rejects ‘self-investigation’ accusation into data breach” (https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10644289)