Methodology for Calculating Consumption Stimulus Effects of Prize Invoice Pilot Policy and Evaluation Recommendations for A-Share Consumer Sector

I. Theoretical Support for Methodology (Public Literature, Not Empirical Data for Current Policy)

• The marginal stimulus effect of consumer voucher/invoice policies is affected by region, voucher denomination, usage thresholds, distribution methods, and digitalization level. Existing studies mostly provide a theoretical range of 0.5-2.5 times (different research conclusions vary by scenario and assumption). The following literatures can be used as methodological references (not empirical evaluations for this “Prize Invoice Pilot Policy”):
  • Public discussion reports by the National Information Center and others on consumer voucher policy evaluation, mentioning short-term stimulus ranges and structural factor impacts (Reference: Public materials from the National Information Center and relevant institutions) [1].
  • Reviews of consumer voucher implementation effects in multiple regions by industry and media, emphasizing the importance of superimposed promotions, platform linkage, and improvement of invoice compliance (Examples: Economic Daily, Yicai, etc.) [2].
  • International experience shows that invoice lottery/invoice incentives can increase invoice issuance rates and tax base transparency in some countries, but the stimulus to total consumption still depends on supporting measures and residents’ marginal propensity to consume (Reference: OECD and IMF discussions on tax incentives and consumption) [3].

II. Charts and Calculation Notes

• Figure 1 (adec7480_prize_invoice_impact_range.png): Shows the “estimated new consumption” range corresponding to approximately 10 billion yuan of central finance (calculated based on the tiered parameters you provided as an example) under different stimulus multiple assumptions; this is a theoretical scenario calculation, not an actual policy implementation result.
• Figure 2 (adec7480_prize_invoice_flow.png): Illustrates the transmission path: Central Finance → Local/Platform → Invoice Winning/Consumer Voucher → Residents’ Consumption Willingness → Enterprise Performance Improvement → Tax Base Expansion.

III. Evaluation Recommendations for A-Share Consumer Sector (Methodology, No Empirical Data on Specific Companies or Industries)

• It is recommended to use the “pilot-control” difference-in-differences framework to track changes in total social retail sales, sub-industry social retail growth rates, and comparable store/same-store indicators of listed companies in pilot and non-pilot cities respectively, to more accurately identify the policy’s marginal effect.
• At the enterprise level, priority should be given to:
  • Targets with a high proportion of business in pilot cities and complete cash register and invoice digital systems;
  • Profit elasticity of high fixed cost, high elasticity formats (such as hotels, scenic spots) under consumption recovery;
  • Enterprises with high store chainization and regional concentration, and strong docking capabilities with local platforms.
• Notes:
  • Since no official public version of the policy has been retrieved, the above are purely methodological and parametric calculations;
  • The winning probability, redemption convenience, invoice issuance cost, and strength of supporting policies in actual implementation will significantly affect the final effect.

IV. Follow-up Tracking and Risk Tips

• Tracking indicators include: sub-industry social retail growth rates in pilot cities, invoice issuance volume and amount, quarterly same-store/comparable store indicators and gross profit margin changes of listed companies.
• Risk points: Insufficient awareness of winning, complex redemption process, limited representativeness of pilot cities, changes in residents’ consumption confidence and income expectations, etc.

References
[1] Public discussion materials from the National Information Center and relevant institutions (on the stimulus range and methodological framework of consumer voucher/invoice policies), source example: https://www.sic.gov.cn/ (Note: The specific article is subject to the publicly available report link actually retrieved)
[2] Review reports on consumer voucher and invoice incentive cases in multiple regions by industry media such as Economic Daily and Yicai, source examples: https://www.economicdaily.com.cn/, https://www.yicai.com/
[3] Discussions by institutions such as OECD/IMF on the relationship between tax incentives and consumption (explaining the theoretical impact of invoice incentives on compliance and consumption willingness), source examples: https://www.oecd.org/, https://www.imf.org/

Note: The above literature citations are only indicative of methodological sources and do not represent empirical evaluation results for the current “Prize Invoice Pilot Policy”. Specific empirical conclusions need to be formed based on official data or authoritative research reports after the policy is implemented.