Impact of 2025 New Year's Day Holiday Railway Passenger Flow Recovery on Listed Railway Companies

1. Macroeconomic Background of Railway Passenger Volume Growth and Impact on the Sector (Qualitative Overview)

• Passenger Flow Background: According to the information provided, railway transportation demand was strong during the 2025 New Year’s Day holiday. It is estimated that 18.25 million passengers will be transported on January 1, the peak of holiday passenger flow, which is a further increase from the previous day. Railway authorities plan to add 1113 passenger trains to meet travel demand. The above situation is consistent with the descriptions in multiple media reports that “railway passenger volume rebounds and transportation demand is strong during the New Year’s Day holiday” [1].
• Potential Impact on the Railway Transportation Sector: If passenger demand continues to recover, it is usually beneficial to improve the overall operation and market attention of the railway sector. For listed companies specifically, the impact magnitude depends on the weight of passenger business in their revenue structure. Generally, targets with a higher proportion of passenger transport (such as regional passenger lines) are more sensitive to passenger flow recovery; targets dominated by freight transport are relatively less sensitive to short-term passenger flow fluctuations, but may still benefit indirectly from network synergy and policy support.

2. Differences and Potential Benefit Logic Between Daqin Railway and Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway (Prudent, Qualitative)

• Daqin Railway (601006.SH): From the perspective of historical business structure, Daqin Railway is a leading freight railway focusing on bulk cargo such as coal, with its revenue and profits mainly coming from freight business; the proportion of passenger revenue is relatively low. Therefore, the direct impact of holiday passenger flow recovery on its profitability is usually limited, belonging to indirect benefit logic:
  • Indirect Channels: The recovery of overall railway demand may increase network utilization and policy support, leading to marginal improvements in freight transport and road network operations;
  • Current Data Acquisition Status: This API did not return Daqin Railway’s company overview and real-time quotation data, so valuation and quotation verification cannot be carried out based on tool data; only qualitative judgment can be made based on historical business structure.
• Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway (601333.SH): From the perspective of historical business structure, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway has a relatively high proportion of passenger transport, covering economically active corridors such as Guangzhou-Shenzhen, with relatively high passenger flow density. The recovery of passenger flow during holidays has greater marginal elasticity for its passenger transport business:
  • Potential Improvement Paths: Increase in passenger load factor, increase in ticket revenue, and network effects brought by cross-line synergy;
  • Current Data Acquisition Status: This API did not return Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway’s company overview and real-time quotation data, so valuation and quotation verification cannot be carried out based on tool data; only qualitative judgment can be made based on historical business structure.

3. Key Risks and Uncertainties

• Data Availability: Tool data for the two companies was not obtained this time, so quantitative valuation, latest quotations and relative position judgments cannot be provided;
• Structural Differences: Daqin focuses on freight transport while Guangzhou-Shenzhen focuses on passenger transport, and their sensitivities to holiday passenger flow recovery are significantly different, requiring differentiated treatment;
• Competition and Demand Fluctuations: Diversion from aviation, highways and other high-speed rail networks, as well as macroeconomic fluctuations, will all create uncertainties for railway passenger transport demand;
• Capital Expenditure and Subsidies: The railway industry has large capital expenditures, and some lines rely on policy subsidies and liquidation mechanisms; the sustainability of profit improvement needs to track policy implementation and cost control.

4. Next Verification Directions (Suggestions)

• Obtain segment data from the 2024 annual reports and 2025 interim reports (if available) of the two companies, focusing on verifying:
  • The proportion of passenger and freight revenue and their trends in the past two years;
  • Unit passenger transport cost (such as seat-kilometer cost) and ticket pricing policy;
  • The impact of owned asset scale and depreciation/amortization on profits.
• Use technical and fundamental tools to obtain company valuation, dividends, debt ratio, ROE and cash flow status to improve quantitative evaluation;
• Track policy dynamics of China State Railway Group regarding passenger pricing, capacity deployment and cross-line liquidation, and conduct scenario calculations for companies with a high proportion of passenger transport.

5. Conclusion

• The recovery of passenger flow during the 2025 New Year’s Day holiday is a directional positive signal for the railway transportation sector, especially for companies with a high proportion of passenger transport, which have greater potential elasticity;
• Daqin Railway focuses on freight transport, so the short-term holiday passenger flow recovery has limited impact on its profitability, but it may benefit indirectly from the overall improvement of the railway network;
• Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway has a relatively high proportion of passenger transport business, so it can theoretically benefit more directly from the recovery of passenger flow;
• Since tool data for the two companies was not obtained this time, this analysis is a qualitative and structural judgment and cannot replace quantitative valuation and investment decisions; if in-depth quantitative evaluation is needed, it is recommended to supplement fundamental and valuation data before conducting scenario calculations.

[1] Multiple media reports show that the number of railway passengers transported during the 2025 New Year’s Day holiday has rebounded and transportation demand is strong (this is public online information, used for qualitative background) [1][2][3][4][5].

Notes:

• The above media sources are used to support the qualitative judgment that “railway passenger flow is strong and transportation demand is rising during the 2025 New Year’s Day holiday” and do not represent quantitative conclusions.
• If API data for 601006.SH and 601333.SH is obtained later, it will be uniformly marked with [0] and the quantitative analysis will be updated.