xTool Investment Analysis: Can High Growth Continue?

Based on collected industry data and company information, I will systematically analyze from four dimensions: sustainability of growth, rationality of valuation, investment logic of the personal creative tools track, and risk points.

• Revenue: 2.48 billion yuan, year-on-year growth of 70%[1]
• 97% of revenue from overseas markets[1]
• Black Friday & Cyber Monday single-day GMV exceeded 100 million yuan, year-on-year growth of 50%[16]

• Market share in laser-based personal creative tools: 37% (first nine months of 2025)[1]
• Market share in laser engraving machines: 47%[1]
• Excellent crowdfunding performance on Kickstarter platform: M1 product raised over $2.6 million, ranking first in laser category that year[5]

• Completed a US$200 million Pre-IPO round in 2025, led by Tencent[1]
• Submitted an application for main board listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 1, 2026[1]
• Sponsors: Morgan Stanley, Huatai Securities[1]

• 2023: $658 million (approximately 4.7 billion yuan)[12]
• 2030 forecast: $1.88 billion
• Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): 14.67%[12]

• 2024: $6.8 billion[1]
• 2030 forecast: $39.1 billion
• CAGR: 33.8%[1]

1. Prevalence of Overseas DIY Culture
   : Consumers in Europe and America are keen on making creative accessories, renovating gardens, handicrafts, etc., driving the rise of consumer-grade hardware[7]
2. Penetration of Consumer-Grade Equipment
   : Laser technology migrates from industrial scenarios to home scenarios, with prices becoming affordable (Glowforge Aura price has dropped below $1000)[15]
3. Technological Iteration
   : Product integration is improved (e.g., xTool M1 integrates blade and laser cutting functions), and user experience is greatly improved[16]
4. Maturity of Crowdfunding Model
   : From 2014 to 2024, the total crowdfunding amount of projects from Greater China on Kickstarter increased by more than 20 times[7]

1. First-Mover Advantage
   : Established in 2021 and immediately entered the consumer-grade laser engraving machine track, accumulating user reputation in the early stage[7]
2. Complete Product Matrix
   : From portable F1 series to desktop P2 series, covering different price ranges and demand scenarios[15]
3. Mature DTC Model
   : Monthly visits to independent websites exceed 1 million, direct traffic accounts for over 40%[12]
4. Crowdfunding Capability Verification
   : Multiple products succeeded on Kickstarter/Indiegogo platforms, proving product-market fit[5]

1. Anker Innovations Enters
   : Launched AnkerMake M5 in 2022, raising $8.88 million to set a global 3D printer record, split into independent sub-brand eufyMake in 2025[10]
2. Rise of Bambu Lab
   : Founded by former DJI executives, Tmall flagship store sales lead, valuation over 30 billion yuan[10]
3. Increased Market Concentration
   : In the 2024 global laser engraving machine market, the top five companies accounted for 40.7% of shipments and 54.9% of GMV[1]

1. Creality
   : 2024 revenue 2.288 billion yuan, net profit 89 million yuan, post-A round valuation 4-6.5 billion yuan[10] → Corresponding Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S):1.75-2.84x → Corresponding Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E):45-73x
2. Bambu Lab
   :2024 revenue nearly 6 billion yuan, net profit margin over30%, valuation over30 billion yuan[10] → Corresponding P/S: about5x → Corresponding P/E: about17x
3. Anker Innovations
   :Average P/E of A-share consumer electronics sector is25x, Anker’s current P/E is42x[14]

Based on xTool’s 2024 revenue of 2.48 billion yuan and growth situation (70% year-on-year growth rate), referring to comparable companies:

• Conservative Estimate (P/S:2-3x)
  :4.96-7.44 billion yuan
• Neutral Estimate (P/S:3-5x)
  :7.44-12.4 billion yuan
• Optimistic Estimate (P/S:5-7x)
  :12.4-17.36 billion yuan

1. High Growth Track
   : Personal creative tools market CAGR reaches33.8%, far exceeding most consumer electronics categories[1]
2. Stable Leading Position
   :37% and 47% market share, Matthew effect is significant[1]
3. High Overseas Revenue Share
   :97% of revenue from overseas, benefiting from globalization of Chinese manufacturing and penetration of DIY culture[1]
4. Tencent Endorsement
   :Tencent-led Pre-IPO round provides imagination space for brand and resource synergy[1]

##5. Main Risk Points and Challenges

1. Price War Pressure
   :Glowforge Aura price has dropped below $1000[15], if xTool maintains high gross margin, it may face market share loss
2. Cross-Border Competition from Giants
   :Consumer electronics giants like Anker Innovations and Bambu Lab enter strongly[10], with obvious resource and channel advantages
3. Market Space Ceiling
   :The 2023 market size of laser engraving machines is only4.7 billion yuan[12], relatively