Food Delivery Platforms' 100 Billion Subsidy Battle for Riders: Analysis of the Critical Point of Traffic Conversion Efficiency

In 2025, China’s food delivery market experienced an unprecedented ‘Three Kingdoms’ landscape reshaping. JD.com entered the market high-profile in February with ‘quality food delivery’, completely breaking the long-standing duopoly between Meituan and Ele.me [1]. The core of this battle has gone beyond simple food delivery order competition, extending to a comprehensive game of the instant retail ecosystem.

[1][2]:

Platform	Q3 Marketing Expense Increase	Annual Consumption Estimate	Strategic Positioning
Meituan	+16.3 billion yuan (YoY +90.9%)	~40 billion+	Defensive Offense, Full-domain Defense
Alibaba (Taobao Flash Purchase + Ele.me)	No less than Meituan	~30 billion+	Traffic Reuse, Ecosystem Synergy
JD.com	Key Investment	~20 billion+	Quality Breakthrough, Supply Chain Integration
Total	61.4 billion yuan	Nearly 100 billion	—

[5][6]:

• Meituan
  : Provides a 2888 yuan reward to riders from competing platforms with monthly orders ≥720 and delivery punctuality rate ≥95%
• Taobao Flash Purchase
  : Offers a 3000 yuan reward + 1000 yuan referral bonus to riders who complete over 140 orders across multiple platforms
• JD.com
  : Full-time rider scale exceeds 150,000; first platform to pay five social insurances and housing fund for riders

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The current food delivery industry is standing at the

[4]. Many experts point out that if continuous price inversion lacks mechanism constraints, it may eventually erode merchants’ profits, forcing quality and service to give way to cost control.

:

Indicator	Trend	Critical Point Interpretation
Per-order Profit	Continuously Compressed	Diminishing Marginal Benefits of Subsidies
User Acquisition Cost (CAC)	Exponentially Rising	Traffic Dividend Exhaustion
Rider Retention Cost	Significantly Climbing	Capacity Competition Enters Stock Game

[1][4]:

1. Cost Transfer Chain
   : High platform subsidies → Profit compression → Transfer costs via increasing merchant commissions, raising delivery fees, etc.
2. Distorted Consumption Habits
   : Massive subsidies lead to waste; consumers form ‘1 yuan purchase’ inertial expectations
3. Merchant Profit Erosion
   : Some merchants cut costs on ingredients due to low-price sales, with quality and service giving way

[4]:

• Meituan’s core local business turned from profit to loss in Q3, with operating loss reaching 14.1 billion yuan and operating loss rate of 20.9%
• Alibaba’s instant retail business revenue increased by 60% YoY, but adjusted EBITA decreased by 78% YoY
• The ratio of merchant dine-in to takeout changed from ‘50-50’ to ‘20-80’, with dine-in severely squeezed

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Facing the critical point, each platform chose different response strategies [1][2][3]:

:

• Strengthen履约 network advantages, maintain 34-minute average delivery time relying on over 7 million active riders
• Promote commercialization of drone delivery, completing over 670,000 commercial orders累计
• Extend to full-category instant retail, with daily order peak exceeding 150 million in July
• High customer unit price order advantage: Orders with actual payment over 30 yuan account for over 70%

:

• Upgrade Ele.me to Taobao Flash Purchase, driving core e-commerce growth with high-frequency food delivery
• Integrate full-category ecosystem to achieve efficient traffic reuse
• Focus on full-category instant retail ecosystem of digital Shopping Mall

:

• Model innovation of 7Fresh Kitchen and pre-cut vegetable supply chain
• Super supply chain logic: Full-link integration from ingredient procurement, central kitchen to end delivery
• Five social insurances and housing fund system for riders enhances brand social reputation

Chen Liteng, analyst at NetEase E-commerce Research Center, pointed out

that with subsidies fading and regulatory intervention in 2026, the food delivery industry will enter a new stage:

Dimension	Subsidy-driven Period	Quality-driven Period (Post-critical Point)
User Decision	Chase Discounts	Meal Quality, Food Safety
Merchant Demand	Traffic Acquisition	Delivery Capacity, Transparent Commissions, Operation Empowerment
Platform Competition	Subsidy Burning for Market	Ecosystem Collaboration, Tech Innovation, Service Depth
Regulatory Focus	Prevent Monopoly	Protect Small and Medium Merchants’ Rights, Rider Protection

---

Comprehensive industry analysis shows that

is the key window period when traffic conversion efficiency reaches the critical point:

[1][2][3][4]:

1. Subsidy Marginal Benefits Exhausted
   : Nearly 100 billion investment only换来阶段性 market share changes; per-order losses continue to expand
2. Tightening Regulatory Policies
   : State Administration for Market Regulation continuously supervises platform behaviors to prevent new round of disorderly competition
3. Consumption Habit Reshaping
   : Nearly 40% of consumers develop multi-platform comparison habits; decision core shifts from price to quality
4. Merchant Tolerance Limit
   : Merchants’ profit margins are severely compressed, forcing platforms to adjust strategies

[4]:

• Subsidies gradually decline; platforms shift from ‘burning money for market’ to refined operation
• Merchants rebuild balance between dine-in and takeout, develop private traffic and own channels
• Industry forms ‘platform + high-quality merchants’ symbiotic ecosystem

:

• Instant retail market size is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan (2026), and reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030
• Competition shifts from ‘capacity competition’ to ‘efficiency deepening’ and ‘service differentiation’
• Tech innovation (drone delivery, AI scheduling) becomes core barrier

[2][3]:

• Food delivery upgrades from ‘emergency demand’ to ‘daily consumption’, with consumption frequency continuing to rise
• Category boundary of ‘everything到家’ instant retail continues to expand
• Industry transforms from ‘zero-sum game’ to ‘ecosystem win-win’

---

Risk Type	Specific Performance	Impact Assessment
Policy Risk	Tightening regulation, commission ceiling control	Medium-term systemic risk
Competition Risk	Continuous price war erodes profits	Short-term profit pressure
Model Risk	Difficulty in戒除 subsidy dependence	Long-term transformation challenge
Operational Risk	Rising cost of rider rights protection	Cost structure adjustment

According to Meituan (3690.HK) latest data

:

• Current Price: $103.30, Market Cap: $624.55 billion HKD
• Valuation Indicators: P/E -152.5x (Loss), P/B 3.1x
• Analyst Consensus
  : Sell (100% Sell)
• 1-year Drop: 31.41%, 5-year Drop:64.70%

: The food delivery industry is at a historic turning point from subsidy-driven to quality-driven, with the critical point of traffic conversion efficiency clearly visible. 2026 will be the industry分水岭—platforms that can first complete the transformation from ‘burning money to grab users’ to ‘service to retain users’ will gain an advantage in the next competition cycle.

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[1] 36氪 - “复盘2025外卖’三国杀’，烧钱千亿后的市场何去何从” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3616456454980611)

[2] 品玩 - “2025落幕：'外卖大战’刚刚行至’中’局” (https://www.pingwest.com/a/310360)

[3] 北京日报 - “外卖市场的商业裂变三大平台的商业模式与竞争博弈” (https://news.bjd.com.cn/2025/12/31/11497565.shtml)

[4] 第一财经 - “年终盘点| 亲历外卖补贴过山车：他们的爆单、疲惫与重新算账” (https://www.yicai.com/news/102977537.html)

[5] 36氪 - “3000元挖一个骑手，红黄橙血拼背后，是即时零售的万亿赌局” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3615805470094086)

[6] 新浪财经 - “3000元抢人大战背后：外卖平台竞争进入运力决胜期” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-30/doc-inheqixq4290911.shtml)

[7] 消费日报 - “'外卖不可堂食’背后：餐饮业面临价格倒挂与边界隐忧” (https://m.gmw.cn/2025-12/26/content_1304279522.htm)

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