XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) Analysis of Popular Drivers and Market Performance

Comprehensive Analysis

Basic Stock Information
: XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) is a company in the Hong Kong-listed new energy vehicle sector. As of 16:30 UTC+8 on January 2, 2026, its share price was approximately 80.30 HKD [1].
Key Popular Drivers
:
- Delivery Performance Driver
  : Full-year 2025 deliveries reached 429,445 units, up 125.94% year-on-year, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 1 million units, reflecting the company’s large-scale growth momentum [2].
- Accelerated International Layout
  : Reached a cooperation agreement with Malaysia’s EP Manufacturing Berhad, planning to assemble G6 and X9 models locally from March to May 2026, advancing overseas localized production and expanding international markets [1][2].
- Positive Analyst Outlook
  : According to MarketBeat data, institutions have given XPeng a “Moderate Buy” rating with an average target price of approximately $25.37. Well-known institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have raised their target prices, reflecting confidence in long-term growth [1].
- Changes in Industry Competition Pattern
  : BYD (1211.HK) reported 7.73% sales growth in 2025, the lowest in 5 years, with weak domestic market performance; investor attention shifted to XPeng, which has strong delivery growth, making it a market focus [3].
Daily Price and Trading Volume Performance
:
- On January 2, 2026, XPeng opened at 78.80 HKD, with a low of 77.20 HKD and a high of 81.10 HKD. As of the event time, it closed at approximately 80.30 HKD, up about 1.90% from the opening price [1].
- The daily trading volume was 3,158,700 shares, reflecting high market attention to the stock [1].
Market Sentiment and Macro Background
:
- The Hong Kong stock market performed well overall on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng Index opening 0.3% higher and the Hang Seng Tech Index opening 0.6% higher, showing positive macro market sentiment [4].
- Consensus bullish views from analysts, combined with changes in the industry pattern, provided support for XPeng’s market popularity.

Key Insights

Industry Attention Shift
: The slowdown in growth of BYD, the leading domestic new energy vehicle company, has triggered market attention to other high-growth carmakers. XPeng benefited from its strong full-year delivery performance, reflecting the capital rotation effect in the industry.
Importance of International Strategy
: The Malaysian assembly project marks the deepening of XPeng’s overseas market layout. Localized production helps reduce costs and improve market response speed, laying the foundation for long-term international market expansion. This strategic move has strengthened market confidence in its growth potential.
Game Between Performance and Analyst Expectations
: Although XPeng’s Q4 delivery volume (116,249 units) was below the guidance range of 125,000-132,000 units [2], the high full-year growth was still recognized by institutions, reflecting that the market values long-term growth trends more than short-term fluctuations.

Risks and Opportunities

Opportunities

High full-year delivery growth proves the company’s product competitiveness, providing support for future performance growth;
International layout expands new market space, which is expected to diversify domestic competition risks;
Positive analyst ratings and raised target prices boost market confidence.

Risks

Q4 deliveries fell short of expectations, which may trigger short-term market sentiment fluctuations;
The new energy vehicle industry is highly competitive, and factors like price wars and technological iterations may squeeze profit margins;
Overseas market expansion has uncertainties such as supply chain and policy risks.

Key Information Summary

XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) became a hot stock in the Hong Kong market due to strong delivery growth, international expansion, analyst optimism, and changes in the industry pattern;
On January 2, 2026, the stock price rose by approximately 1.90% with a trading volume of 3.1587 million shares;
Need to pay attention to risks such as Q4 deliveries falling short of guidance and industry competition, while valuing the long-term growth potential brought by its international strategy.

XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) Analysis of Popular Drivers and Market Performance

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