In-depth Analysis of Tesla's 89.1% Surge in Norway Sales

According to the latest data, Tesla’s new car registrations in Norway surged by 89.1% year-on-year in December 2024[2]. Behind this growth is Norway’s unique market environment:

• Tax Relief: Electric vehicles are exempt from value-added tax (25%) and registration tax
• Usage Privileges: Free parking, free charging, ferry discounts
• Infrastructure: The density of charging piles ranks among the highest in the world
• Market Penetration: The electric vehicle market share reached 97.4% in December 2024, the highest level globally[2]

The chart above shows the evolution of Norway’s electric vehicle market and changes in Tesla’s market share, as well as a comparison with other European countries. The top-left chart shows Norway’s total electric vehicle penetration rate and Tesla’s market share from 2012 to 2024; the top-right chart shows Tesla’s sales comparison in Norway in 2024 (based on an 89.1% year-on-year growth); the bottom-left chart shows the market share of various brands in Norway in 2024 (Tesla at 16%); the bottom-right chart shows Tesla’s sales and year-on-year changes in major European markets in 2024.

• In mid-2024, Tesla launched the upgraded Model Y (Juniper version) in Norway
• Improved interior and longer range (up to 565 km WLTP)
• Price Competitiveness: The starting price of the Norwegian version is about 380,000 Norwegian kroner (approximately $35,000), which has a price advantage in the European market

• Norway has the densest Supercharger network in Europe
• As of the end of 2024, Norway had more than 1,200 Superchargers
• Free charging policy reduces usage costs

• Volkswagen Group’s ID series faced software issues and delivery delays in 2024
• Although BYD expanded rapidly in Europe, its layout in Norway was relatively lagging
• Chinese brands (Xpeng, Zeekr) still have a small market share in Norway

• Tesla’s Berlin factory increased production capacity, shortening delivery cycles in Norway
• Localized production in Europe reduces tariffs and logistics costs

• Norway: Registrations increased by 89.1%[2], becoming Europe’s strongest growth market
• Sales reached 6,215 units (full year 2024, up 89.1% YoY)[5][6]
• Market share of approximately 16%, maintaining its position as Norway’s largest automaker[2]

• Germany: Sales of approximately 45,000 units, down about 15% YoY
• UK: Sales of approximately 38,000 units, down about 8% YoY
• France: Sales of approximately 28,000 units, up 5% YoY
• Sweden: Sales of approximately 8,500 units, down about 12% YoY

• BYD surpassed Tesla in sales in multiple European countries in 2024
• Denmark Market: Tesla has been surpassed by BYD, Xpeng, and Zeekr[4]
• Price Advantage: Chinese brand models are generally 20-30% cheaper than Tesla’s

• Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 sales grew steadily in Europe
• BMW i4 and iX series compete in the high-end market
• Mercedes-Benz EQ series has brand advantages in the luxury segment

• FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology is leading, although European regulatory approval has not been fully passed
• Supercharger network is still the most complete in Europe
• OTA remote upgrade capability remains competitive

• In mature markets like Norway, Tesla has become synonymous with electric vehicles
• High brand loyalty, with repurchase and recommendation rates leading the industry

According to the latest financial analysis[0]:

• Net Profit Margin: 5.51% (lower than 10.8% in 2023)
• Operating Profit Margin:4.74% (significant decline)
• ROE (Return on Equity):6.91% (at historical low)

• P/E Ratio:275.48x
• P/B Ratio:18.15x
• P/S Ratio:15.14x
• Market Cap: $1.45 trillion

According to DCF model analysis[0]:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Gap vs Current Stock Price
Conservative	$141.08	-68.6%
Baseline	$147.21	-67.3%
Optimistic	$188.14	-58.2%

• Even in the most optimistic scenario, Tesla’s stock price is still overvalued by more than 58%
• Market pricing reflects more expectations for Robotaxi and Optimus robots than the current fundamentals of the electric vehicle business
• High Beta value (1.88) indicates high stock price volatility

• Proves Tesla can still achieve high growth in high-penetration markets
• Demonstrates market acceptance of product upgrades (Model Y Juniper)
• Verifies the value of Supercharger network and brand loyalty

• Norwegian market is relatively small (annual sales of about 150,000 units)
• Strong policy dependence, difficult to replicate in other markets
• Sales in Norway fell by 50% YoY in October 2025[3][4], indicating challenges to growth sustainability

• Technical Aspect: Sideways oscillation, trading range [$441.59, $464.70], Beta 1.88[0]
• Valuation Level: P/E275x, P/B18x, significantly higher than historical averages and peers[0]
• Analyst Consensus: Median target price of $483 (+7.4%), rating as “Hold” (31 Buy/32 Hold/17 Sell)[0]

1. Short-term (0-6 months):
   European sales volatility (Norway +89.1% in December2024[2], but declines in multiple countries in October2025[3][4]) coexists with valuation pressure; stock price may remain volatile
2. Mid-term (6-18 months):
   Whether the success of Model Y Juniper in markets like Norway[5][6] can stabilize European share is key; Robotaxi commercialization progress (currently about160 units, far below the2025 target of 1,500 units) will dominate expectations
3. Long-term (18+ months):
   European market faces dual competition from Chinese brands and traditional automakers; valuation needs to shift from electric vehicle business to Robotaxi/robot narrative, but execution risks and regulatory barriers are high

• Intensified Competition: BYD has surpassed Tesla in multiple European countries[4], and may become the world’s largest BEV manufacturer in2025
• Policy Risk: European subsidy reduction and policy adjustments for Chinese brands
• Technical Risk: Unclear progress of FSD regulatory approval in Europe
• Execution Risk: The actual scale of Robotaxi targets in 2025 was reduced from1,500 to about30 units, showing a gap between execution and commitments

1. Product Strategy Verification: Model Y Juniper upgrade is recognized in mature markets
2. Brand Advantage Confirmation: Maintains about16% market share in a highly competitive environment[2]
3. But Warnings Are Obvious: Norway’s registrations fell by50% YoY in October2025[3][4], indicating growth sustainability is affected by policy and competition

• Norway’s success cannot offset overall European pressure:2024 sales in Germany/UK fell by about15%/8% YoY, France grew by5%, Sweden fell by12%
• Current stock price ($449.72, P/E275x) already reflects optimistic expectations for many years ahead, while Norway’s growth is more of a “point” breakthrough rather than a “broad” improvement
• Valuation support needs to shift to Robotaxi and robot businesses, but Robotaxi execution progress (about160 units vs1,500 unit target) increases uncertainty

• Short-term: European market differentiation intensifies (contrast between Norway +89.1% in Dec2024 and -50% in Oct2025[2][3][4]), high volatility (Beta 1.88)
• Mid-term: Focus on the stability of Model Y Juniper’s share in Europe and Robotaxi commercialization milestones
• Long-term: Norway case proves competitive barriers in high-penetration markets, but overall European competitive landscape and rise of Chinese brands remain structural challenges

[0] Gilin API Data - TSLA Company Profile, Financial Analysis, Technical Analysis, DCF Valuation (December31,2025)

[1] Investing.com - “Tesla Norway registrations surge89.1% in December” (January2,2026)
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-norway-registrations-surge-891-in-december-93CH-4427371

[2] CleanTechnica - “EVs Take97.4% Share In Norway — Tesla Model Y Best Seller” (May9,2025)
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/05/09/evs-take-97-4-share-in-norway/

[3] Sina Finance - “Tesla’s European Sales Fall to Low Again in October; France Is the Only Bright Spot” (November3,2025)
https://finance.sina.cn/stock/jdts/2025-11-03/detail-infwczmf2200054.d.html

[4] TOM Auto - “Tesla’s Sales in Multiple European Countries Slump Again in October” (November4,2025)
https://car.tom.com/202511/1033217409.html

[5] FourWeekMBA - Tesla Norway Sales Chart (showing89% growth)
https://fourweekmba.com/daily-roundup-anthropics-2-year-billion-teslas-915-billion-paradox-and-the-demographic-destiny-mckinsey-reveals/

[6] Sina Finance - Norway2024 Automobile Brand Sales Ranking (showing Tesla leading with significant growth)
https://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20241007/82/w1080h602/20241007/122f-d48b26cc2ca1f96cfd8c2fff4d4c862d.png

[7] ICCT - “2024 Global Light Electric Vehicle Market Tracking Report” (July2025)
https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/ID-426-–-Global-monitor_CH_research-brief_final.pdf