Goldwind Technology 18.9 Billion RMB Wind Power-to-Hydrogen, Ammonia and Methanol Integrated Project Investment Payback Period Calculation and Analysis

Goldwind Technology released the “Announcement on Signing Investment and Development Agreement and Carrying Out Application Work” in September 2025, planning to sign the “Investment and Development Agreement for Wind Power-to-Hydrogen, Ammonia and Methanol Integrated Project” with the People’s Government of Bayannur City to invest in the construction of the Urad Middle Banner 3GW Wind Power-to-Hydrogen, Ammonia and Methanol Integrated Project [1][2]. The total investment of the project is about 18.92 billion RMB, which is a grid-connected new energy project, located in the Ganqimaodu Port Processing Zone of Urad Middle Banner [2].

The project plans a new energy scale of 3 million kilowatts of wind power, with a hydrogen production capacity of 146,600 tons/year, supporting the construction of a 450,000 kilowatts/1.35 million kilowatt-hours energy storage system and 1.32 million standard cubic meters of hydrogen storage facilities [2]. The produced green hydrogen will be fully used in the supporting 600,000 tons/year green methanol project and 400,000 tons/year green ammonia project, forming a closed-loop full industrial chain of “wind power generation - green hydrogen production - green chemical industry” [2]. The project will be implemented in two phases: the first phase has a total investment of 9.79 billion RMB, and the second phase has a total investment of 9.13 billion RMB [2].

The cost structure of the wind power-to-hydrogen project directly affects the calculation of the investment payback period. Based on industry experience data and project characteristics, the cost composition of the 18.92 billion RMB investment mainly includes the following parts [3][4]:

accounts for about 45% of the total investment, approximately 8.514 billion RMB. This part includes wind turbine procurement, infrastructure construction, transmission line construction, and supporting facilities such as substations. As a leading domestic wind power equipment manufacturer, Goldwind Technology has technical and cost advantages in wind farm construction, which can effectively control construction costs.

account for about 20% of the total investment, approximately 3.784 billion RMB. This part mainly includes alkaline electrolyzers (ALK) or proton exchange membrane electrolyzers (PEM), hydrogen purification equipment, hydrogen storage tanks, and related auxiliary systems. According to industry data, the current cost of electrolyzers has dropped to 1500-3000 RMB/kW, and the production cost of green hydrogen in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other regions has dropped to below 2.8 USD/kg [4].

accounts for about 25% of the total investment, approximately 4.73 billion RMB. This part includes methanol synthesis towers, ammonia synthesis equipment, gas separation equipment, and related process pipelines and control systems. The production of green methanol and green ammonia is the main source of income for the project, and the technical maturity and operational efficiency of chemical equipment directly affect the project’s revenue.

account for about 5% of the total investment, approximately 946 million RMB. Mainly includes hydrogen storage tank areas, liquid storage tanks, loading and unloading facilities, transmission pipelines, and auxiliary facilities such as laboratories.

account for about 5% of the total investment, approximately 946 million RMB. Including project design fees, engineering supervision fees, project management fees, and unforeseen expenses.

The project’s revenue mainly comes from the sales of green methanol and green ammonia. According to market research data and international market conditions, the current market price of green methanol is about 5000-7000 RMB/ton, and the market price of green ammonia is about 3500-5000 RMB/ton [1][3].

: The project’s designed capacity is 600,000 tons/year. Assuming the capacity utilization rates are 70%, 80%, and 85%, and the green methanol prices are 5000 RMB/ton, 6000 RMB/ton, and 7000 RMB/ton respectively, the annual green methanol revenue is about 2.1 billion RMB, 2.88 billion RMB, and 3.57 billion RMB respectively.

: The project’s designed capacity is 400,000 tons/year. Assuming the capacity utilization rate is the same as that of green methanol, and the green ammonia prices are 3500 RMB/ton, 4500 RMB/ton, and 5500 RMB/ton respectively, the annual green ammonia revenue is about 980 million RMB, 1.44 billion RMB, and 1.87 billion RMB respectively.

As a green energy project, the project can also obtain carbon trading revenue. According to industry calculations, each ton of green hydrogen produced can reduce emissions by about 10-15 tons of CO₂ equivalent [3]. Based on the project’s hydrogen production capacity of 146,600 tons/year, assuming the carbon trading price is 80-120 RMB/ton, the annual carbon trading revenue is about 100-200 million RMB.

The commercialization path of the project has been recognized by international customers. Goldwind Technology has signed a long-term supply agreement with Maersk, a global shipping giant, to supply green methanol starting from 2026 [1]. In addition, the company has also signed a green methanol fuel procurement agreement with the Hapag-Lloyd “Gemini” alliance [3]. These international long-term agreements provide important guarantees for the project’s stable revenue and reduce market risks.

When calculating the investment payback period, the following basic assumption parameters are used:

Parameter Item	Conservative Scenario	Baseline Scenario	Optimistic Scenario
Green Methanol Price (RMB/ton)	5,000	6,000	7,000
Green Ammonia Price (RMB/ton)	3,500	4,500	5,500
Carbon Trading Price (RMB/ton)	80	100	120
Capacity Utilization Rate	70%	80%	85%
Annual Operation Cost Ratio	4%	4%	4%
Income Tax Rate	25%	25%	25%
Project Operation Period	20 years	20 years	20 years

Based on the above assumption parameters, the calculation results of the investment payback period are as follows:

(70% capacity utilization rate, price at the lower end of the range):

• Annual Total Revenue: About 3.086 billion RMB
• Annual Operation Cost: About 757 million RMB (4% of total investment)
• Annual Net Profit: About 1.747 billion RMB
• Static Investment Payback Period
  : About 10.83 years
• Total Profit During 20-Year Operation Period: About 34.936 billion RMB

(80% capacity utilization rate, price at the mid-range):

• Annual Total Revenue: About 4.327 billion RMB
• Annual Operation Cost: About 757 million RMB
• Annual Net Profit: About 2.678 billion RMB
• Static Investment Payback Period
  : About 7.07 years
• Total Profit During 20-Year Operation Period: About 53.558 billion RMB

(85% capacity utilization rate, price at the upper end of the range):

• Annual Total Revenue: About 5.449 billion RMB
• Annual Operation Cost: About 757 million RMB
• Annual Net Profit: About 3.519 billion RMB
• Static Investment Payback Period
  : About 5.38 years
• Total Profit During 20-Year Operation Period: About 70.38 billion RMB

To evaluate the impact of different factors on the investment payback period, the following sensitivity analysis is conducted:

Influencing Factor	Change Range	Impact on Payback Period
Product Price Decrease by 20%	Payback period extended to 8.7 years
Capacity Utilization Rate Decrease by 10 Percentage Points	Payback period extended to 8.5 years
Operation Cost Increase by 1 Percentage Point	Payback period extended by about 0.8 years
Carbon Price Doubled	Payback period shortened by about 0.5 years

Sensitivity analysis shows that product price and capacity utilization rate are the most important factors affecting the investment payback period. Therefore, investors should focus on the price trend of the international green fuel market and the actual operational efficiency of the project.

In addition to the static investment payback period, IRR is an important indicator to evaluate the project’s investment value. Based on industry benchmarks and project characteristics, the following estimations are made:

: Using the cash flow discount method, assuming the project operation period is 20 years and the residual value is 10% of the total investment, the project’s internal rate of return is expected to reach 12%-18% [3]. This return rate is higher than the average IRR of the wind power industry (8%-12%), which has good investment attractiveness.

:

• Under Conservative Scenario, IRR is expected to be 8%-12%
• Under Optimistic Scenario, IRR is expected to be 15%-22%

The main factors affecting IRR include: product price trend, capacity utilization rate, capital cost, and policy subsidy changes.

The project has received multiple supports from national and local policies. The Xing’an League 500,000 tons/year green methanol project has been included in the “First Batch of National Green Liquid Fuel Technology Research and Industrialization Pilots”, will enjoy preferential loan policies, and be included in the support scope of “Two Key” and “Two New” [1]. The project accurately aligns with the policy direction of “coordinating the layout of integrated industries for the production, storage, transportation and use of green fuels such as green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol” proposed by the state recently [1][2].

The project’s green fuel layout has been recognized by the international market. The long-term supply agreement signed by the company with Maersk marks that its products have been recognized by top international customers [1]. The global shipping industry is accelerating the decarbonization process, and the demand for alternative fuels such as green methanol continues to grow, providing a broad market space for the project. According to the net-zero emission framework target of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the total greenhouse gas emissions of the shipping industry need to be halved by 2050, which will continue to drive the growth of green fuel demand.

Inner Mongolia has abundant wind energy resources, and the wind power utilization hours can reach more than 2800 hours, providing a low-cost power source for the project [3]. At the same time, with the progress of electrolyzer technology and large-scale production, the production cost of green hydrogen continues to decline. The current cost of alkaline electrolyzers has stabilized at 300-500 USD/kW, and with the green hydrogen subsidy of 1500-4000 RMB/ton, the production cost of green hydrogen in some regions has dropped to below 2.8 USD/kg [4].

The wind power-to-hydrogen technology route is mature. Alkaline electrolyzer (ALK) technology is mature and stable, suitable for large-scale fixed hydrogen production scenarios [4]. Proton exchange membrane electrolyzer (PEM) has a wide load adjustment range of 5%-150% and 5-second fast response capability, suitable for matching the volatile output of wind power [4]. As a leading domestic wind power equipment manufacturer, Goldwind Technology has deep accumulation in wind power technology and project operation, which can effectively ensure the technical reliability of the project.

There is a fluctuation risk in the market price of green fuels. Currently, the prices of green methanol and green ammonia are at a relatively high historical level. If the decarbonization progress of the international shipping industry is slower than expected or the supply increases leading to price declines, it will affect the project’s investment return. In addition, the fluctuation of carbon trading market prices will also affect the project’s carbon trading revenue.

The volatility of wind power output may affect the stability of hydrogen production, requiring supporting energy storage and flexible hydrogen production scheduling strategies [3]. There is also uncertainty about whether the capacity utilization rate of chemical equipment can reach the design level. In addition, the long-term operation and maintenance cost of equipment may be higher than expected.

Although the current policy support is strong, changes in subsidy policies may still affect the project’s investment收益. Changes in international trade policies may also affect product exports. In addition, the improvement of environmental protection standards may increase the project’s operation cost.

Although the current technology route is mature, the improvement of water electrolysis hydrogen production efficiency may be slower than expected, affecting the project’s cost competitiveness. The emergence of new technologies may also pose a substitution threat to existing technology routes.

Based on the above analysis, the calculation results of the investment payback period of Goldwind Technology’s 18.92 billion RMB wind power-to-hydrogen project are as follows:

Scenario	Capacity Utilization Rate	Static Payback Period	Annual Net Profit	Estimated IRR
Conservative Scenario	70%	9-10 years	1.8-2.0 billion RMB	8%-12%
Baseline Scenario	80%	6.5-7 years	2.6-3.0 billion RMB	12%-18%
Optimistic Scenario	85%	5.5-6 years	3.2-3.8 billion RMB	15%-22%

First, under the baseline scenario, the project is expected to recover investment in 6.5-7 years, and the internal rate of return (IRR) is expected to reach 12%-18%, which has good investment value.

Second, the project has received strong national policy support and signed long-term supply agreements with international customers, which significantly reduces market risks and policy risks.

Third, the total profit of the project during the 20-year operation period is expected to exceed 50 billion RMB (baseline scenario), and the investment return is considerable.

Fourth, attention should be paid to the fluctuation of product market prices and the improvement of capacity utilization rate, which are key factors affecting investment returns.

The project has good investment value. Investors are advised to focus on the following points: First, whether the capacity utilization rate can reach the design level; second, the price trend of the international green fuel market; third, changes in policy subsidies; fourth, the actual operational efficiency and cost control ability of the project.

Considering that the project is implemented in two phases, it is recommended to continuously track the construction progress and operation status of the first phase to provide a basis for evaluating the investment decision of the second phase.

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[1] Caifuhao - “Riding the Wind: Goldwind Technology’s Profit Inflection Point Has Arrived, Multi-dimensional Layout Opens New Growth Cycle” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251230110019338125310)

[2] Sina Finance - “Planning to Invest Over 18.9 Billion RMB! This New Energy Project in Inner Mongolia is Accelerating Progress” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-02/doc-inhewuut2196283.shtml)

[3] Sina Finance - “2026 Annual Strategy Report for Wind Power Equipment Industry: Expanding Value Chain Through Non-Electric Utilization” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-23/doc-inhctxhn8446290.shtml)

[4] Carbon Search Hydrogen Energy - “The ‘Price War’ of Electrolyzers is Accelerating to End” (https://mh2.solarbe.com/news/20251211/50014374.html)

[5] NetEase - “Goldwind Technology, Winning by Surprise!” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KI79RGP20556DX6R.html)

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