Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015) In-Depth Valuation Analysis: DCF Indicates 100% Upside Potential

Based on comprehensive data obtained, I provide you with an in-depth valuation analysis report for Aier Eye Hospital Group:

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Aier Eye Hospital Group has indeed experienced a

[0]:

Time Period	Decline
Past 1 Year	-13.68%
Past 3 Years	-53.20%
Past 5 Years	-64.75%

The current stock price is

(2025-12-31), down more than 60% from its historical high [0]. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price is currently in a with a trading range of [$10.90, $11.16] and no clear trend direction [0].

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Valuation Metric	Value	Industry Comparison
PE (TTM)	31.53x	Medical services industry average is about 40-50x
PB	4.52x	Relatively reasonable
PS	4.59x	Moderate level
Beta	0.70	Low volatility [0]

[0]:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$15.10	+37.5%
Base Case Scenario	$19.41	+76.8%
Optimistic Scenario	$31.36	+185.6%
Weighted Average	$21.96	+100% Upside

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[0]:

• ROE (Return on Equity):
  14.86%
  — Maintained at a good level
• Net Profit Margin:
  14.52%
• Operating Profit Margin:
  20.77%

[0]:

• Current Ratio: 1.51
• Quick Ratio: 1.34
• Debt Risk Rating:
  Low Risk
• Free Cash Flow: 3.052 billion yuan

[1]:

• Revenue:
  17.484 billion yuan
  (YoY +
  7.25%
  )
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company:
  3.115 billion yuan
  (YoY -
  9.76%
  )

The recovery in revenue growth indicates a

, but the decline in net profit is mainly due to expansion expenses and integration costs.

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[2]:

Segment	Revenue Growth Rate	Net Profit Growth Rate
Overall Medical Services	+1.08%	-9.28%
Scientific Research Services	+7.00%	+15.21%
Pharmaceutical	-0.8%	-18.8%

[2]:

• The ophthalmology medical service market size is expected to grow from 235 billion yuan in 2024 to
  252.2 billion yuan
  in 2025 [2]
• Private hospital share increased from 42% to 45%
• Consumer medical recovery is one of the main growth drivers

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Based on DCF analysis, Aier Eye Hospital Group’s current PE valuation of 31.53x has a

:

1. Relative to Historical Valuation
   :
   • PE reached over 80x at its peak in 2020
   • Current valuation is about
     60%
     discounted from the peak
   • Compared to the historical 5-year average PE of about 50-60x, there is still a 20-30% discount

2. Relative to DCF Intrinsic Value
   :
   • Base case scenario shows
     76.8%
     upside
   • Weighted average valuation implies
     100%
     upside
   • Current price does not fully reflect the company’s actual value

Assessment Dimension	Degree of Reflection	Explanation
Revenue Growth Recovery	Partially Reflected	YoY revenue growth of +7.25% indicates demand recovery
Net Profit Inflection Point	Not Fully Reflected	Net profit margin is still declining, leading to insufficient market confidence
Expansion Strategy Effectiveness	To Be Observed	Acquisition of 39 institutions needs time to verify
Valuation Recovery Room	Significantly Undervalued	DCF shows 100% upside

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1. Policy Uncertainty
   : Volatility risk of private medical policies
2. Intensified Competition
   : Competition from peers like Huaxia Eye Hospital and Pury Eye Hospital
3. Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) Impact
   : Ophthalmology consumables VBP compresses profit margins
4. Integration Challenges
   : Management pressure after rapid expansion

1. Performance Inflection Point
   : Net profit growth turns from negative to positive
2. Favorable Policies
   : Further clarification of supportive policies for private medical care
3. Valuation Recovery
   : Market reprices consumer medical recovery
4. International Expansion
   : Accelerated overseas market layout

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:

1. Valuation Aspect
   : The current PE (31.53x) has an
   60-100%
   upside relative to DCF intrinsic value ($19.41-21.96), and the valuation is already in the historical low range with high safety margin [0].

2. Consumer Medical Recovery Expectations
   : The current valuation
   partially reflects
   the positive signal of revenue growth recovery, but
   has not fully reflected
   the net profit inflection point and long-term growth potential brought by integration and expansion [1][2].

3. Investment Recommendations
   :
   • Risk-seeking Investors
     : Consider
     accumulating on dips
     ; current valuation has good safety margin
   • Risk-averse Investors
     : Suggest
     waiting for confirmation of performance inflection point
     before entering
   • Long-term Investors
     : As a leading private ophthalmology provider, the company has brand barriers and scale advantages;
     regular investment layout
     is recommended

:

• Net profit growth change in 2025 annual report
• Revenue and profit margin performance in Q1 2026
• Integration effect of acquired targets

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[0] Jinling API Data - Aier Eye Hospital Group Company Profile, Financial Analysis, DCF Valuation, Technical Analysis

[1] Sina Finance - “Aier Eye Hospital Group Acquires Partial Equity of 39 Institutions for 963 Million Yuan” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2025-12-25/doc-inhczhsi3499637.shtml)

[2] Medical Services Industry Report - “2025 Medical Services White Paper: Total Scale Exceeds 10 Trillion Yuan, Focus on Seven High-Value Tracks” (https://t.cj.sina.cn/articles/view/5334569296/13df7115000101ye56)