Analysis of Hainan Duty-Free Market Trends and Impact on Related Stocks

Based on the data you provided and publicly verifiable information, I conduct a systematic assessment and qualitative estimation of the impact, and strictly distinguish between “verified data”, “brokerage API analysis”, “estimation” and “risk factors”.

• Events & Data:
  • First two days of New Year’s Day holiday: Hainan offshore duty-free shopping amount reached 505 million yuan, +121.5% YoY; number of shoppers was 65,000, +60.9% YoY; number of items sold was 307,000, +48.3% YoY[1][2].
  • Hainan Free Trade Port (FTZ) customs closure operation launch date: December 18, 2025; First day of customs closure: offshore duty-free shopping amount was 161 million yuan, +61.0% YoY; Dec 18-20: Sanya’s city-wide duty-free sales exceeded 100 million yuan for 3 consecutive days (Dec19/20: +45.8%/+47.0% YoY respectively); First week of customs closure (Dec18-24): Sanya offshore duty-free sales reached736 million yuan, +48.2% YoY; number of visitors was 635,000, +19.0% YoY[3][4][6].
  • China Duty Free (CDF) on Hainan’s customs closure first day: Hainan regional sales were about250 million yuan, +90.0% YoY[3][4]; CDF Sanya International Duty Free City’s foot traffic was about36,000, +60.0% YoY; sales +85.0% YoY[3][4].
  • Policies & Categories: New offshore duty-free policy took effect on Nov1 (added pet supplies, portable musical instruments, etc.; included departing passengers in benefit scope; 6 categories of domestic goods implemented “sell first, refund later”[3][4]); Nov1-17: offshore duty-free sales were1.325 billion yuan, +28.52% YoY[3][4]; Nov single month: Hainan offshore duty-free sales were2.379 billion yuan, +27.1% YoY (Sept/Oct/Nov:1.733/2.425/2.379 billion yuan respectively, +3.4%/+13.1%/+27.1% YoY)[3][4].

Note: All above are verifiable data disclosed in public reports or official/authoritative channels, used to depict short-term high prosperity.

• Company & Industry Position (Brokerage/Media Verified): Hainan currently has12 offshore duty-free stores; CDF owns6, covering the world’s largest single duty-free store (cdf Haikou International Duty Free City) and 100-billion-yuan scale CDF Sanya International Duty Free City; CDF’s Hainan duty-free market share in2024 was about 82% (steady YoY increase), Hainan regional revenue accounted for over53% of company’s total in H12025; CDF’s domestic duty-free market share in2024 was ~78.7%, Hainan market accounted for ~60% of its total revenue in recent years[3][4][7].
• Supply Chain & Cost Structure (Media Reports): CDF’s global direct procurement accounted for ~78%, long-term cooperation with ~1600 well-known brands;2024 gross margin ~31.2%, zero-tariff policy is expected to further improve procurement costs and gross profit margin[2].

• Short-term Increment & Rhythm (Extrapolation based on verifiable window, marked as “Estimation”):

  • Taking verified data of first two days of New Year’s Day as example: Hainan offshore duty-free sales505 million yuan, +121.5% YoY[1][2]; combined with CDF’s ~82% Hainan market share (2024 level)[3][4][7], estimated CDF’s Hainan regional sales in first two days of New Year’s Day were ~505M ×82%≈414M yuan, YoY growth significantly higher than market average (due to higher share in core hubs like Sanya, and its Hainan regional growth rate reached +90% on customs closure first day[3][4]). Qualitative judgment: Q1 good start is expected, high YoY growth is supported by both policy and foot traffic.
  • Peak Season Continuity: Sanya offshore duty-free sales in first week of customs closure were736M yuan (+48.2% YoY)[3][4]; combined with2026 New Year’s Day and Spring Festival peak season outlook, if foot traffic remains high, CDF’s store capacity and conversion in Sanya will directly benefit.

• Average Transaction Value (ATV) & Order Rate (Trend Judgment):

  • Customs data shows ATV recovered steadily from Sept to Nov[3][4]; after customs closure, high-ATV categories like gold, electronics, fragrance & cosmetics strengthened[2][6], expected to support ATV recovery and repeat purchase increase.

• Gross Margin & Cost Side (Structural & Policy Factors):

  • Zero-tariff list expanded significantly (from over1900 items to6637 items, accounting for ~74%)[2][4], which helps reduce procurement costs of core categories; combined with direct procurement and brand bargaining advantages, CDF has greater gross profit improvement potential than other small and medium participants (media reports indicate CDF’s2024 gross margin ~31.2%[2]).
  • Meanwhile, there are still upward pressures on rent, revenue sharing and labor costs in core hubs (media reports mention annual rent increase ~12%, annual labor cost increase ~8%[7]); the extent of gross margin improvement needs to observe volume-price linkage and cost control.

• Market Share & Competition Pattern (Short-term & Medium-term):

  • Short-term: With density and scale, CDF has advantages in undertaking foot traffic and new product launch/exclusive supply; its Hainan sales +90% YoY on customs closure first day[3][4] confirms its “traffic undertaking capability”.
  • Medium-term: Diversification of licenses and increase of participants (e.g., Hainan Tourism Investment Duty Free accounts for ~18% of Hainan market share[7], foreign duty-free groups participate in airport channel bidding, etc.) will intensify competition; CDF needs to consolidate its moat through scenario upgrading, supply chain and digital operation.

• Wangfujing (600859.SH): Holds offshore duty-free license; operates Wanning Wangfujing International Duty Free Port, adopts “duty-free + taxable” dual-track model[3][4][7]. Under Hainan customs closure and new policies, if foot traffic remains high, its offshore business is expected to expand with the industry, but its absolute volume and density in core Sanya locations are significantly lower than CDF.
• Hainan Airport (600515.SH): Participates in duty-free benefits through three channels: “airport traffic + property + equity participation” (e.g., equity in Haikou Meilan Airport Duty Free Store)[3][4][7], indirectly benefits from foot traffic and consumption recovery.
• Zhuhai Duty Free Group: Focuses on taxable and cross-border businesses; jointly operates “Zhuhai Duty Free - Sanya Tourism Investment Mall” with Sanya Tourism & Culture Group, sharing traffic dividends of Sanya business district[3][4][7].
• Comparison Conclusion: From the perspective of “Hainan exposure + channel control + supply chain”, CDF is still the “largest undertaker” of this round of recovery; Wangfujing and Hainan Airport more reflect “industry beta + channel sharing”, with elasticity and absolute contribution weaker than CDF.

• Growth Sustainability: The high growth in first two days of New Year’s Day and first week of customs closure has both policy and holiday effects; need to observe whether normalized repeat purchases and ATV remain high after Spring Festival[3][4][6].
• Intensified Competition: New licensed entities, foreign capital entering airport channels, and local players like Hainan Tourism Investment Duty Free diverting in segmented customer groups and categories[3][7].
• Cost & Expense Pressure: Rising rent, revenue sharing and labor costs, as well as increased marketing/traffic acquisition investment, may weaken the extent of gross margin recovery[2][7].
• Macroeconomic Consumption Recovery Strength: Duty-free consumption still relies on overall tourism consumption and residents’ expenditure recovery; if recovery is less than expected, high prosperity is difficult to maintain.

• Short-term (1-2 quarters):
  • Based on verified data (customs closure first day, first week, first two days of New Year’s Day, improvement from Sept to Nov)[1][2][3][4][6], combined with CDF’s ~82% Hainan market share and density in core business districts like Sanya[3][4][7], it can be reasonably estimated: in the peak season window from post-New Year’s Day to Spring Festival, CDF’s Hainan regional sales are expected to maintain high prosperity (e.g., ~414M yuan in first two days is an estimate), and will significantly drive Q1 performance; other targets (Wangfujing, Hainan Airport, etc.) more follow industry beta elasticity.
• Medium-term (6-12 months):
  • Zero-tariff policy expansion, category expansion and “sell first, refund later” mechanisms are conducive to ATV and repeat purchase improvement[3][4]; CDF, with supply chain and channel advantages, has the potential to achieve “volume-price rise + gross margin improvement”, but also needs to cope with competition and cost pressures.
• Qualitative Judgment from Investment Perspective:
  • CDF is still the main beneficiary of “policy dividends + traffic undertaking + leading share”; but the realization of growth rate and profit margin needs to observe normalized sales data after peak season and cost control progress.

• [0] Jinling API Data (market data, company profile, technical/financial/DCF analysis, Python calculations, etc. are classified as [0])
• [1] Hainan Daily/China News Service/Local News Portals reports (on “Hainan offshore duty-free sales 505 million yuan in first two days of New Year’s Day holiday, +121.5% YoY” and other calibers)
• [2] 36Kr, East Money, Yahoo Finance and other media reports (on Sanya duty-free sales on customs closure first day/first week, gold consumption heat, gross margin and cost structure, etc.)
• [3] Cinda Securities and other research report excerpts/brokerage views (on Hainan customs closure, offshore duty-free new policy and industry recovery rhythm interpretation)
• [4] Securities Daily/Local Commerce Bureau and Customs disclosures (on CDF Sanya International Duty Free City foot traffic and sales, Sept-Nov Hainan offshore duty-free monthly data, policy details, etc.)
• [5] Sanya Municipal Commerce Bureau/Hainan Daily on customs closure first week sales and foot traffic data
• [6] Hainan Provincial Commerce Bureau on category expansion and consumption voucher policy support after customs closure
• [7]钜亨/智通财经 and other sources on CDF market share, competition pattern and cost pressure combing

(All above sources correspond to the used data points and qualitative judgments. If precise values or more granular time-series data are needed, high-frequency/daily transaction and operation data can be further pulled through Python and brokerage APIs for backtesting and scenario deduction.)