Analysis of the Catalytic Effect of Shanghai Cultural Tourism Consumption Growth on Valuation Repair of A-share Hotel and Tourism Sectors

• Visitor arrivals: 6.8203 million [1]
• Total factor tourism consumption: 12.271 billion yuan [1]
• Average hotel room occupancy rate: 70% [1]
  The above is official holiday market data released by the Shanghai Municipal Administration of Culture and Tourism on Jan 3, 2026 [1]. A 70% room occupancy rate indicates that industry demand is in a prosperous range; usually, above 60% is the starting point of the profit threshold, and 70% shows that occupancy has strong support.

• Jinjiang Hotels (600754.SS) [0]: Current price 25.27 yuan (2026-01-03), +3.78% on the day, +13.12% in the past 3 months, +13.52% in the past 6 months, -2.99% in the past year; P/E approx.48.71x, P/B approx.1.70x, market cap approx.23 billion yuan.
• BTG Hotels (600258.SS) [0]: Current price16.75 yuan (2026-01-03), +4.17% on the day, +18.96% in past3 months, +18.63% in past6 months, +19.64% in past year; P/E approx.22.32x, P/B approx.1.55x, market cap approx.18.7 billion yuan.
• Songcheng Performance (300144.SZ) [0]: Current price8.19 yuan (2026-01-03), +0.12% on the day, P/E approx.27.30x, market cap approx.21.5 billion yuan.
• CYTS Tours (600138.SS) [0]: Current price9.88 yuan (2026-01-03), -1.30% on the day, P/E approx.54.89x, market cap approx.7.15 billion yuan.
  Sector characteristics: Leading stocks generally show a repair trend in the past3 and6 months, but valuation differentiation is obvious, and some stocks have relatively high P/E in the industry.

###3. Catalytic Paths of Valuation Repair

1. Demand-side Repair and Occupancy Improvement

• The70% hotel occupancy rate [1] reflects strong check-in demand, which is expected to drive both ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) upward, directly benefiting the revenue and profit improvement of the hotel sector.
• The12.271 billion yuan total factor tourism consumption [1] reflects the activity of comprehensive cultural tourism consumption, driving hotels, scenic spots, performances, etc.

2. Performance Expectations and Valuation Digestion

• Current P/E differences are large (BTG22x vs Jinjiang48x vs CYTS54x) [0]. If subsequent quarterly performance fulfills the repair, high-valued leaders are expected to digest valuations through profits, while medium-valued targets have repair flexibility.
• Financial overview (from brokerage API) shows that the latest quarterly revenues of Jinjiang and BTG are approximately3.71 billion yuan and2.12 billion yuan respectively [0] (slightly below market expectations), but their stock prices have recovered in the past6 months, reflecting that market expectations are moving towards performance improvement.

3. Capital Flow and Sentiment Repair

• Leading stocks saw large single-day gains on the first day after New Year’s Day (Jinjiang+3.78%, BTG+4.17%) [0], indicating that market funds are布局 in advance for the peak season effect. With post-holiday data verification, sector sentiment is expected to continue to heat up.

4. Industry-level Linkage

• The recovery of passenger flow and consumption drives the simultaneous recovery of supporting services (transportation, catering, retail), thereby enhancing the overall “prosperity diffusion” effect of the sector and strengthening market expectations for industry profit repair.

###4. Evaluation of Valuation Repair Space and Risk Tips

• Repair Space:
  • BTG Hotels’ P/E is relatively reasonable (approx.22x) [0]; if occupancy and ADR continue to improve, both valuation and profit are expected to rise.
  • Jinjiang Hotels and CYTS currently have high P/E, which need to digest valuations through performance growth; if Q1 2026 performance verifies prosperity, there is room for valuations to return to reasonable levels downward.
• Risk Tips:
  • Macroeconomic consumption fluctuations, rising ticket prices/room rates inhibiting travel, cost-side (labor, energy) pressures, etc., may affect profit margins.
  • After a large short-term gain in the sector, there is pressure for profit-taking; it is necessary to closely monitor the Q12026 performance guidance and Q2 holiday data.

###5. Comprehensive Conclusion
The outstanding performance of Shanghai’s New Year’s Day cultural tourism data (leading in number of visitors and consumption amount, hotel occupancy rate reaching70%) [1] provides dual catalysts of “demand verification + sentiment-driven” for the A-share hotel and tourism sectors. Under the current valuation differentiation and the repair trend in the past6 months, leading targets benefit from performance flexibility brought by occupancy rate and RevPAR improvement, and the valuation repair path is relatively clear. The following need to be focused on:1) The fulfillment of Q12026 performance and the continuity of industry prosperity;2) Booking and consumption data during traditional peak seasons such as the Spring Festival;3) The implementation progress of industrial policies and consumption stimulus measures.

References
[0] Jinling API Data (real-time quotes, historical prices, financial and technical analysis, sector performance, etc.)
[1] The Paper - “Shanghai Receives6.82 Million Visitors During New Year’s Day Holiday, Total Factor Tourism Consumption Reaches12.271 Billion Yuan” (Jan3,2026, https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32307233)
[2] Sina Finance (reprinted from The Paper) - “Shanghai Receives6.82 Million Visitors During New Year’s Day Holiday, Total Factor Tourism Consumption Reaches12.271 Billion Yuan” (Jan3,2026, https://finance.sina.cn/2026-01-03/detail-inhezkis8351292.d.html)