Panoramic Analysis of China's New Energy Vehicle Market in 2026

Based on current data and trend analysis, breaking through 20 million units in China’s new energy vehicle market in 2026

.

According to published 2025 key automaker data [1]:

• BYD: Annual cumulative sales exceeded 4.6 million units, up 7.73% YoY
• New force automakers: Leapmotor 596,600 units (+103%), Xpeng 429,400 units (+125.9%), NIO 326,000 units (+46.9%), Li Auto 406,300 units (-18.8%)
• Geely New Energy: 1.69 million units
• Other automakers (HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility, Xiaomi Auto, Voyah, etc.): Total approx. 800k-1 million units

: ~17-18 million units (including exports)

:

• Conservative scenario (10% growth): ~18.7 million units
• Neutral scenario (18% growth): ~20.06 million units ✅
  Achieve 20 million units
• Optimistic scenario (28% growth): ~21.6 million units

[2][3]:

• Trade-in policy extended, 2025 scale exceeded 180 billion RMB, 2026 will continue to support consumption
• NEV purchase tax adjusted from exemption to 50% reduction; although slightly tightened, it still has incentive effects
• New technical requirements (energy consumption, range) will accelerate the clearance of low-end models and optimize supply structure

[4][5]:

• BYD’s December 2025 single-month exports reached 133,000 units, annual exports grew significantly
• JPMorgan predicts overseas markets will become the main growth engine
• Under EU and US tariff barriers, automakers accelerate布局 in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, etc.
• 3.5 million unit export target has high feasibility

[1]:

• 2024 NEV penetration rate reached 44.4% (only 5.8% in 2020)
• Expected to rise to 82% by 2029, still with huge growth potential

[6]:

• CICC predicts 2026 domestic demand will face challenges with increased growth pressure
• 2025 auto market gradually exceeded 2017 highs, base effect is obvious
• Macro economic environment and consumer confidence recovery speed are uncertain

[1][7]:

• Morgan Stanley predicts BYD’s 2025-2026 average car price will drop by 1%-2%
• Per-unit net profit will decrease from 9,400 RMB in 2024 to 8,400 RMB in 2026
• The industry overall shifts from “scale competition” to “efficiency competition, delivery competition”

[4][5]:

• EU imposes up to 45% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles
• US imposes 100% tariff
• Export growth has slowed, need to rely on emerging markets to break through

: Under the neutral scenario, 2026 NEV sales are expected to reach 20-20.5 million units (growth rate ~18%-22%), but require multiple factors such as continued policy support, better-than-expected exports, and easing price wars.

---

:

• Cost-performance golden zone
  : Balances practicality and brand premium, is the first choice for mainstream family car replacements
• Direct beneficiary of policy dividends
  : Trade-in subsidies mainly target mid-end models; the 150k-200k RMB segment has significantly improved cost-performance after subsidies
• Automaker strategic focus
  : BYD, Geely, Leapmotor, Xpeng, etc. all have dense layouts in this price segment

:

• BYD: Qin L, Seal, Song series
• Leapmotor: B10, B01 series (2025 hot sellers)
• Xpeng: MONA series, P7i
• Geely: Galaxy series
• Traditional joint ventures: Volkswagen ID series, Toyota bZ series (price downward)

: Expected to contribute 350k-400k units, accounting for 40%-45% of total increment

:

• New purchase tax policy requires models to meet range and energy consumption standards; some entry-level models will lose tax exemption资格 [2]
• Under cost pressure, automakers have difficulty making profits in this price segment; some may abandon it

:

• Demand in lower-tier markets still exists, is the core segment for first-time buyers
• BYD Qin PLUS DM-i, Dolphin and other models continue to cut prices, squeezing fuel vehicle market

: Expected to contribute 150k-200k units, growth rate relatively moderate

:

• Home ground of NIO, Li Auto, AITO (HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility)
• High-end intelligent configurations (intelligent driving, cockpit experience) have strong premium capabilities
• Price war intensity is relatively low, profitability is strong

: Expected to contribute 150k-180k units

:

• NIO ES8, AITO M9, Li Auto L series continue to attack high-end markets
• BYD Yangwang, Fang Cheng Bao and other high-end brands layout
• Intelligent driving and luxury configurations become main selling points

: Expected to contribute 80k-100k units

Price Segment	Estimated Increment (10k units)	Proportion	Core Logic
Below 100k RMB	50-80	6%-9%	Low-end market shrinking, partial clearance
100k-150k RMB	150-200	18%-22%	Policy impact, but lower-tier market demand remains
150k-200k RMB	350-400	40%-45%	Golden price segment, dual-driven by policy and automakers
200k-300k RMB	150-180	18%-20%	Mid-to-high-end stable growth, intelligent premium
Above 300k RMB	80-100	9%-11%	High-end breakthrough, high profit margin

: The 150k-200k RMB price segment will be the largest beneficiary of incremental dividends in 2026, contributing about 40%-45% of the increment, and is a must-compete area for automakers.

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###3. Competition Pattern and Dividend Distribution Among Automakers

####1. First Tier: BYD (Absolute Leader)

[1]:

• Annual sales 4.6 million units (NEV)
• BEV 2.2567 million units (+27.86%)
• Overseas market 133k units in December

[7]:

• Morgan Stanley predicts sales of 6.1 million units (+32.6%)
• Overseas market becomes main growth engine
• Han series monthly sales exceed 5,000 units in Europe

:

• Expected to add 1.5 million units in 2026
• Dominates 100k-300k RMB full price segment
• Exports contribute significant increment

:

• Average price drops by 1%-2%, per-unit net profit falls to 8,400 RMB
• Overseas markets face EU 45% tariff

####2. New Force Camp: Divergence Intensifies

[1]:
-2025:596,600 units (+103%)
-2026 target:冲击1 million units
-Core:B10, B01 new models hot sell, global layout (35 countries,1,800 outlets)
: Expected to add 400k units, mainly in 150k-200k RMB segment

[1]:
-2025:326,000 units (+46.9%)
-Strong rebound in H2, December hit record high (48,100 units)
-High-end model ES8 accounts for nearly 70%, profit improvement
-Multi-brand strategy:乐道, Firefly gradually emerge
: Expected to add150k-200k units, focus on250k-350k RMB high-end market

[1]:
-2025:429,400 units (+125.9%)
-2026 launches7 extended-range models
-Overseas delivery up 96% YoY
: Expected to add200k-250k units,150k-250k RMB segment

[1]:
-2025:406,300 units (-18.8%)
-BEV strategic transformation blocked, battery supply limits production capacity
-Overseas markets (Central Asia, Africa) become new breakthroughs
: Expected to add50k-100k units, facing great pressure

####3. Traditional Automakers’ NEV Transformation

[1]:
-2025:NEV1.69 million units (record high)
-2026 target:2.22 million units (+31%)
-Galaxy series, Zeekr dual-drive

[1]:
-2025:589k units
-AITO M9 and other high-end models strong

[1]:
-December delivery exceeded50k units
-Annual delivery not announced, but growing rapidly

####4. Automaker Dividend Distribution Prediction (2026)

Automaker	2025 (10k units)	2026 Forecast (10k units)	Increment (10k units)	Growth Rate	Core Price Segment
BYD	460	610	+150	+32.6%	100k-300k RMB full segment
Leapmotor	59.66	100	+40	+67.7%	150k-200k RMB
Xpeng	42.94	65	+22	+51.3%	150k-250k RMB
Geely NEV	169	222	+53	+31.4%	150k-250k RMB
NIO	32.6	50	+17	+53.4%	250k-350k RMB
Li Auto	40.63	50	+9	+22.1%	250k-350k RMB
HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility	58.9	80	+21	+35.7%	250k-400k RMB
Xiaomi Auto	~12 (est)	30	+18	+150%	200k-300k RMB
Others	~800	850	+50	+6.3%	Full segment

: ~ → (assuming 2025 total ~17 million)

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###4. Key Risks and Investment Recommendations

####1. Core Risks

• Price wars continue: Profit margins under pressure, some automakers may be eliminated
• Policy uncertainty: Purchase tax reduction intensity may be further adjusted
• Overseas trade barriers: EU and US tariffs limit export growth
• Demand below expectations: Macro economic downturn affects consumer confidence

####2. Investment Themes

• First choice leader
  : BYD (scale + cost + technology + overseas expansion)
• Focus on high growth
  : Leapmotor, Xpeng (150k-200k RMB segment advantage)
• High-end targets
  : NIO, AITO (strong intelligent premium capability)
• Intelligentization and overseas expansion
  : Focus on enterprises with core intelligent driving technology and overseas layout

####3. 2026 Market Outlook

China’s NEV market in 2026 will be driven by policy support, technological upgrading and export expansion,

, but growth rate will shift from previous high-speed growth to .

The 150k-200k RMB price segment will be the core distribution area of incremental dividends, contributing about40%-45% of the increment. The competition pattern among automakers will accelerate divergence; enterprises with technology, cost, brand and global advantages will obtain main dividends, while uncompetitive automakers will face clearance.

[8].

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[1] Jinling API Data
[2] Yahoo Finance - BYD retains sales crown! 2025 China NEV market results revealed (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/比亞迪蟬聯銷售王-2025年中國新能源車市成績揭曉-零跑-小鵬翻倍領跑創史高-蔚來弋彈-002004239.html)
[3] Yahoo Finance - [Fund Manager’s Words] What are the opportunities and risks in 2026 (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/基金人語-2026年機遇與風險何在-182700123.html)
[4] Wall Street Journal - China auto market overcapacity, industry faces reshuffle challenges (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/china-auto-industry-outlook-2025-371c13b6)
[5] Yahoo Finance - [Major Bank] Goldman Sachs expects overseas markets to be BYD’s future growth engine (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/大行-高盛料海外市場為比亞迪-01211-hk-未來增長引擎-044214635.html)
[6] Yahoo Finance - [Major Bank] CICC predicts domestic auto demand will face challenges this year (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/大行-中金料內地汽車今年內需面臨挑戰-海外銷量穩健增長-建議重點關注智能駕駛-人形機器人及數據中心液冷-022718096.html)
[7] Yahoo Finance - BYD hits new high again; Morgan Stanley raises bullish target price (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/比亞迪再破頂-大摩上調最牛目標價-034515171.html)
[8] Yahoo Finance - JPMorgan is bullish on four major theme drivers of MSCI China Index in 2026 (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/摩根大通看好2026-msci中�%