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Guosen Securities Business Structure Analysis: Hidden Imbalance Concerns Behind Outstanding Brokerage Business

#securities #brokerage #investment_banking #business_structure #financial_analysis #asset_management
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January 4, 2026

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Guosen Securities Business Structure Analysis: Hidden Imbalance Concerns Behind Outstanding Brokerage Business

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Guosen Securities Business Structure Analysis: Are There Hidden Imbalance Concerns Behind the Outstanding Brokerage Business?
I. Core Data Presentation: Growing Business Differentiation

According to the financial data for the first three quarters of 2025, Guosen Securities’ business segments show a significant differentiation pattern:

Outstanding Performance of Brokerage Business

  • Net fee and commission income from brokerage business reached
    6.362 billion yuan
    , a year-on-year surge of
    109.28%
    (more than doubling from 3.04 billion yuan in the same period last year)
  • Became the
    core engine
    driving performance, far outperforming other business segments [1]

Investment Banking Business Continues to Face Pressure

  • Net fee income from investment banking business was
    608 million yuan
    , a year-on-year decrease of
    6.01%
  • It has shrunk for three consecutive years, with the net income of the investment banking business in 2024 shrinking by more than
    60%
    compared to the peak in 2016 [1]

Asset Management Business Falls from Highs

  • Net fee income from asset management business was
    490 million yuan
    , a year-on-year decrease of
    22.69%
  • It fell for the first time after three consecutive years of growth [1]

Outstanding Performance of Proprietary Trading and Credit Business

  • Net income from proprietary trading business was
    9.922 billion yuan
    , a year-on-year increase of
    74.37%
  • Net interest income was
    1.169 billion yuan
    , a year-on-year increase of
    45.36%
    [1]
II. Analysis of Structural Imbalance: Examination from Three Dimensions

1. Revenue Structure Over-Reliant on Market Beta Attributes

From the perspective of revenue composition, Guosen Securities’ performance growth is highly dependent on market cyclical factors:

  • The doubling of brokerage business revenue mainly benefited from active stock market trading and increased investor participation in 2025 [1]
  • The surge in proprietary trading business income stemmed from the recovery of fair value driven by the rise in the equity market
  • This “weather-dependent” model means greater performance volatility

2. Weakened Capabilities of Light-Asset Businesses

The continuous decline of the investment banking business reflects structural shortcomings in professional service capabilities:

  • Affected by the phased slowdown in IPO and refinancing rhythm and stricter regulatory review, the scale of equity underwriting has shrunk [1]
  • Bond market interest rate fluctuations and changes in financing costs have restricted the demand for bond issuance
  • The net income of the investment banking business in 2024 shrank by more than 60% compared to the peak, indicating that Guosen Securities’ competitiveness has weakened under the background of deepening registration system reform

3. Transformation Pressure of Asset Management Business Becomes Prominent

The asset management business fell after three consecutive years of growth, reflecting transformation challenges:

  • The ecology of the large asset management industry is being reconstructed, and the “public fundization” development path still needs to be explored [2]
  • The securities firm asset management industry shows a development trend of “stable total volume, optimized structure, and prominent characteristics” [2]
  • Guosen Securities’ asset management business income decreased by 22.69%, facing differentiated competition pressure
III. Assessment of the Degree of Business Structure Imbalance

Judgment on the Degree of Imbalance: Structural Hidden Risks Exist, but the Degree of Imbalance Has Not Been Reached

Supporting Factors:

  1. Strong Overall Performance
    : The year-on-year growth rates of operating income and net profit attributable to parent company in the first three quarters reached
    69.41%
    and
    87.28%
    respectively [1], and the overall performance was better than the industry average
  2. Growth in Multiple Business Lines
    : In addition to the brokerage business, the proprietary trading business (+74.37%) and net interest income (+45.36%) both achieved substantial growth, forming multiple supports
  3. Common Industry Issues
    : The contraction of the investment banking business is a common industry phenomenon; the securities firm industry is undergoing an integration period in 2025, and leading securities firms are also facing similar challenges [2]

Risk Factors:

  1. Three Consecutive Years of Decline in Investment Banking Business
    : Shrinking by more than 60% for three consecutive years, indicating that the core light-asset business capabilities continue to weaken
  2. Lagging Wealth Management Transformation
    : The proportion of income from agency sales of financial products is only about 10%, which is still far behind leading securities firms [2]
  3. Pressure to Adjust Cost Structure
    : The company continues to “reduce costs and increase efficiency”, closing dozens of business departments, and the number of employees decreased by 770 in one year (a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%) [1]
IV. Recommendations for Strategic Adjustment Directions

Short-Term Response Strategies:

  • Seize the window period of market recovery, consolidate the advantages of the brokerage business, and
    accelerate the accumulation of customer assets
  • Optimize the layout of branches and improve online operation efficiency

Medium- and Long-Term Transformation Directions:

  • Strengthen Investment Banking Professional Capabilities
    : Focus on the IPO and refinancing needs of “hard technology” enterprises, and seize the opportunity of deepening registration system reform [2]
  • Deepen Wealth Management Transformation
    : Shift from “earning transaction commissions” to “earning management fees and service fees”, and increase the proportion of agency sales of financial products [2]
  • Build Differentiated Asset Management Capabilities
    : Explore characteristic development paths under the background of the reconstruction of the large asset management industry
V. Conclusion

The phenomenon of Guosen Securities’ brokerage business revenue doubling while the investment banking and asset management businesses decline

does expose some imbalance characteristics of the business structure
, mainly reflected in two aspects: weakened light-asset business capabilities and high dependence of the revenue structure on market cycles. However, from the perspective of overall performance and coordinated growth of multiple business lines, this imbalance is still within an
acceptable range
.

The current securities industry is undergoing profound changes. Leading securities firms have achieved scale expansion through mergers and reorganizations (such as the cases of Guotai Haitong, CICC + Dongxing + Cinda) [2], and the industry competition pattern is being reshaped. If Guosen Securities wants to maintain its competitiveness, it needs to

accelerate its transformation into a professional capability-driven institution
on the basis of stabilizing existing advantages, especially needing to rebuild the market position of the investment banking business and the differentiated competitiveness of the asset management business.


References:

[1] Sina Finance - “Guosen Securities Suffers Another Reduction! FAW Investment Cashes Out 3 Billion Yuan in 7 Years, Making Multiple Accurate ‘High Sells’” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-02/doc-inhexmsq9119036.shtml)

[2] 21st Century Business Herald, East Money, etc. - “Witness History! ‘Bull Market Flagbearer’ This Year: Mergers and Reorganizations Are in Full Swing to Build First-Class Investment Banks” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512213597628716.html)

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Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.