Analysis of Selling Pressure from CR Trust's Reduction of Guosen Securities Holdings

Based on the collected data, I will systematically analyze the potential selling pressure from CR Trust’s reduction of Guosen Securities holdings.

According to the announcement, China Resources Shenzhen International Trust Co., Ltd. (CR Trust), as the second largest shareholder of Guosen Securities, holds 2.137 billion shares, accounting for 20.87% of the total share capital. This time, it plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 52 million shares, accounting for 0.51% of the company’s total share capital, with the reduction window from December 31, 2025 to March 30, 2026, lasting 3 months [0][1].

Based on Guosen Securities’ December 2025 closing price of 13.48 yuan/share, the corresponding market value of this reduction is about 699 million yuan; based on the December 31, 2025 closing price of 13.12 yuan/share, the cash-out amount is about 682 million yuan [1][3]. The reason for the reduction is CR Trust’s own “asset allocation adjustment needs” [0].

From the perspective of trading volume, Guosen Securities’ average daily volume in December 2025 was about 29.74 million shares. Calculated at this rate, the reduction volume of 52 million shares is equivalent to about 1.75 trading days’ volume [0]. This scale is relatively limited, and the market should have sufficient absorption capacity.

It is worth noting that FAW Investment also planned to reduce 22 million shares (accounting for 0.21% of the total share capital) during the same period, and FAW Investment completed the entire reduction plan from December 15 to December 26, 2025, with an average reduction price of 13.06 yuan/share, cashing out about 287 million yuan [2][3]. This means that the reduction plans of the two major shareholders overlap in time, and the actual selling pressure may be superimposed.

: This reduction accounts for only 2.43% of CR Trust’s holdings and less than 1% of the company’s total share capital, so the impact on the company’s shareholding structure is limited [0]. CR Trust is not the company’s controlling shareholder or actual controller, so the reduction will not lead to changes in the company’s control [1].

: Compared with block trades or agreement transfers, the centralized auction method has a smaller immediate impact on stock prices. The reduction process is completed within 3 months, which is conducive to market digestion [1].

: Guosen Securities’ performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was outstanding, with operating revenue of 19.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.41%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 9.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.28% [3]. The company’s total assets reached 561.087 billion yuan, an increase of 11.88% from the end of the previous year. Good fundamentals provide support for the stock price.

: Guosen Securities’ average daily turnover is about 3 billion yuan or more, and the market has sufficient liquidity to better absorb the reduction pressure [0].

: No matter how it is implemented, it is essentially a “reduction”, which is a negative factor in the short term, and the stock price is likely to come under pressure [1]. Liu Yan, chairman of Anjue Assets, pointed out that behind the reduction are mostly normal needs such as shareholders’ asset allocation and personal capital turnover, which do not all represent bearish views on the company or industry, but short-term sentiment fluctuations are difficult to completely avoid [1].

: CR Trust had reduction plans before but the actual reduction amount was small. In the two reduction plans in May and November 2021, no reduction occurred within the first deadline, and only 6,000 shares were reduced in the second, cashing out 69,000 yuan [3]. There is still uncertainty about whether this reduction plan can be fully implemented.

: In recent years, trust companies have frequently transferred their holdings of financial equity, forming a concentrated reduction phenomenon. Industry analysts believe that this is both the result of regulatory requirements to “return to the origin” and the need for industry risk disposal and their own business model iteration [0]. This industry-level reduction pressure may amplify the market impact of individual stock reductions.

Comprehensive analysis shows that the actual selling pressure brought by CR Trust’s reduction of Guosen Securities holdings is relatively controllable. The maximum expected selling pressure is about 52 million shares, accounting for 175% of the average daily volume. Implementation over 3 months has limited impact on the stock price. FAW Investment has completed its reduction, and the superimposed impact is about 74 million shares, but the total reduction ratio of the two shareholders is only 0.72%, so the overall impact is still mild.

Investors should view this reduction event rationally and focus on the following aspects: First, the company’s fundamentals and valuation rationality. Guosen Securities’ current PE ratio is about 11 times, which is in a historically reasonable range [0]; second, the concentration of chips and institutional trends; third, changes in the policy environment and overall market sentiment. For medium and long-term investors, if the stock price pulls back due to the reduction, it may provide a layout opportunity; for short-term investors, it is recommended to pay close attention to changes in trading volume and the performance of support levels.

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[0] East Money - CR Trust Plans to Reduce Guosen Securities Holdings by 52 Million Shares to Cash Out (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512113588051392.html)

[1] People’s Daily - Brokerages Suffer Continuous Reductions (https://paper.people.com.cn/gjjrb/pc/content/202512/15/content_30120601.html)

[2] Sina Finance - Guosen Securities Suffers Another Reduction! FAW Investment Cashes Out 3 Billion Yuan in 7 Years (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-02/doc-inhexmsq9119036.shtml)

[3] Jinling API Data - Guosen Securities Stock Price and Financial Data [0]