Analysis of Anti-Involution Effects in the Photovoltaic Industry and Polysilicon Price Trends

Based on the news title you provided and the overall situation of the photovoltaic industry, I will conduct a detailed analysis of

:

In 2024, China’s photovoltaic industry experienced

:

• Polysilicon prices plummeted by more than 70% from their 2023 peak
• The entire industry suffered widespread losses, and leading enterprises were not spared
• A large number of high-cost production capacities faced exit pressure

Faced with the industry crisis,

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• Industry Associations
  : Issued early warnings on capacity construction and called for rational expansion
• Leading Enterprises
  : Tongwei, GCL, Daqo, etc. reached a consensus on production cuts to stabilize prices
• Local Governments
  : Cooperated in implementing energy consumption management and capacity constraints
• Policy Orientation
  : The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments guided the healthy development of the industry

The current increase is a

rather than a trend reversal:

• The price base is extremely low (close to the cost line)
• Still down 60-70% from the 2023 peak
• It is a technical rebound after an oversell

• Supply Side
  : Some high-cost capacities exited, and operating rates decreased
• Inventory Side
  : Industrial chain inventory was digested, and inventory days decreased
• Demand Side
  : The year-end rush installation wave stimulated downstream stocking

1. Strong Cost Support
   • Current prices are close to the cash cost of most enterprises
   • The loss range has narrowed, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices

2. Accelerated Capacity Clearance
   • New capacity additions will slow down significantly in 2025
   • Old capacities will gradually exit under cost pressure

3. Clear Policy Support
   • The government has a firm attitude towards the healthy development of the industry
   • Bottom-line thinking to prevent systemic risks

4. Rigid Demand Growth
   • Global photovoltaic installation demand still maintains double-digit growth
   • China’s new energy transformation strategy continues to advance

1. Overcapacity Pressure Not Fully Relieved
   • Capacities expanded before 2024 are still being released
   • New entrants may restart expansion plans

2. Industrial Chain Transmission Not Smooth
   • Module prices have limited follow-up
   • Downstream profit margins are squeezed

3. International Trade Uncertainty
   • Impact of U.S. trade policies
   • Slowdown in European market growth

4. Technology Iteration Risk
   • Impact of new technology routes on old capacities
   • Cost advantages of new processes such as granular silicon

Scenario	Deduction Path	Price Prediction
Base Scenario	Effective implementation of capacity control + stable demand growth	20-40% increase from current level
Optimistic Scenario	Accelerated capacity clearance + downstream demand exceeding expectations	50-80% increase from current level
Pessimistic Scenario	Capacity control below expectations + demand slowdown	Prices may retrace and consolidate

• Silicon Material Leaders
  : Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Daqo Energy Co., Ltd. (688303.SH)
• Integrated Leaders
  : Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (601012.SH), JinkoSolar Technology Co., Ltd. (688223.SH)
• Auxiliary Material Field
  : Forster Group Co., Ltd. (603806.SH), Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd. (601865.SH)

• Implementation of capacity control policies is less than expected
• Downstream installation demand is less than expected
• International trade frictions intensify
• Repeated price wars in the industrial chain

:

• Short-term (1-2 quarters)
  : Prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the current range; attention should be paid to downstream operating conditions after the Spring Festival
• Mid-term (Full Year 2025)
  : If capacity control is implemented in place, prices are expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to replicate the surge in 2021-2022
• Long-term
  : The industry will enter a consolidation period, with leading enterprises’ market share continuing to increase, and the investment logic shifting from growth to leading concentration

:

1. Implementation of capacity control policies by industry associations
2. Changes in operating rates of leading enterprises
3. Inventory levels in the industrial chain
4. Follow-up of downstream module prices

: The photovoltaic industry’s anti-involution efforts have achieved initial results, and the bottom of polysilicon prices has been reached, but a trend reversal still requires capacity clearance. A stance is recommended, focusing on the verification of industry data in the first quarter.

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Note: Due to limitations in real-time data acquisition, this analysis is based on public information and industry research, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.