Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) Hot Analysis: Profit Forecast Increase and Gold Price Drivers

Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) has become a popular stock mainly driven by two catalysts:

1. 212%-233% Profit Forecast Increase
   : The company released a profit forecast increase announcement, expecting 2025 net profit to be approximately US$1.5-1.6 billion. Key factors include a 19.5% year-on-year increase in gold production to 46.5 tons, higher gold sales prices, and profit contributions from two in-production gold mine acquisition projects during the year [1][2].
2. Bull Market Background of Gold Sector
   : International gold prices rose by over 64% in 2025 and hit a new historical peak. As a safe-haven asset, gold demand remained strong amid global economic uncertainty, driving up the overall valuation of gold mining companies [3].
3. Price Performance
   : Since its spin-off from Zijin Mining and listing in July 2025, the stock price has risen by more than 100% cumulatively; it further rose by 2% to HK$146.9 after opening on January 5, 2026 [1].

1. Dual Catalyst Effect
   : High growth in individual stock profits (company’s own operational improvement + acquisition contributions) combined with a systemic bull market in the sector forms a positive resonance, amplifying stock price gains.
2. Spin-off Listing Empowerment
   : After the spin-off, the company focuses on gold business; optimized governance structure and clear strategy may be important supports for the continued rise in stock price.
3. Expected Value of 2026 Production Target
   : The company plans to increase gold production to 57 tons in 2026 (a year-on-year increase of +22.6%). If the target is successfully achieved, it will further strengthen market confidence in its growth potential [1].

• Persistent global economic uncertainty is expected to maintain high safe-haven demand for gold, supporting gold prices and sector performance [3];
• The company’s production expansion plan (2026 57-ton production target) may bring continuous growth momentum to performance [1].

• Gold Price Volatility Risk
  : The company’s profit is highly dependent on gold prices; a sharp correction in gold prices will directly affect performance [1];
• Valuation Risk
  : The stock price has risen by more than 100% since the spin-off listing; vigilance is needed against correction pressure from overvaluation [1];
• Production Target Achievement Risk
  : If the 2026 production plan is not achieved as expected, it may挫伤 market confidence [1].

This report analyzes the popular drivers, price performance, market sentiment and risk points of Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) based on public information. Core driving factors include profit forecast increase, gold price rise and sector bull market; attention should be paid to risks such as gold price volatility, valuation and production targets. This report does not provide any investment advice and is for decision-making reference only.