Investment Insights and Track Analysis of Future Technology Industries such as Humanoid Robots and Commercial Space

1. Overall Investment Insights Overview (Structured Summary)

• Industrialization Process Stratification
  • Entered order and early commercial exploration: Humanoid robots (Morgan Stanley predicts 14,000 units shipped in China in 2025, doubling annually in the next few years [0]; whole machine manufacturers and core components have received bulk orders), commercial space (private rocket companies are rapidly advancing reusable rocket testing and launch frequency [2])
  • Technology verification and scenario implementation in progress: Quantum computing (China-US competition, commercialization expected within 5 years; China follows closely with the "nanosecond-level gap"提法 as reported [1]), brain-computer interface (one of the smallest gaps between China and the US, leading in implantation cases [1])
  • Long-cycle, high-risk stage: Artificial sun/controlled nuclear fusion (most large-scale devices are national-level scientific research platforms and experimental facilities; no clear public disclosure of direct main contractors or core suppliers from listed companies)
• Investment Style Adaptation
  • High risk tolerance: Focus on early technological breakthroughs and theme rotations (humanoid robots/quantum/BCI)
  • Moderate risk preference: Focus on deterministic links in the industrial chain (core components like servos/motors/reducers, materials, ground support and testing, etc.)
  • Risk aversion:暂缓介入 segments where scientific research is dominant and commercialization paths are unclear (e.g., artificial sun)

2. Capitalization and Evidence Chain of Key Tracks (with references)

• Humanoid Robots
  • Market and orders: Morgan Stanley predicts 14,000 units shipped in China in 2025, doubling annually in the next few years; manufacturers have received bulk orders recently, such as Zhiyuan/Yushu winning about 124 million yuan in orders from China Mobile, and UBtech’s annual orders approaching 1.4 billion yuan [0]
  • Stock price performance (concept stocks): Related targets outperformed significantly in 2025; UBtech rose about 130% for the year, Yuejiang about 60%, Sanhua Intelligent Controls over 70%, Johnson Electric nearly 190% [0]
  • Capitalization progress: Multiple companies are preparing for IPO (e.g., Yushu, Yunshenchu, etc.) [0]
• Commercial Space
  • Policy and listing convenience: The Shanghai Stock Exchange has set up a science and technology innovation board fast track for reusable rocket enterprises, relaxing profit and revenue requirements to key milestones (reusable rockets completing orbital launches) [2]
  • Industrial progress: Private leaders are advancing reusable rocket testing (e.g., Zhuque-3 testing), striving to achieve recovery by mid-2026 [2]
• Quantum Computing
  • Timeline and industrial atmosphere: Alphabet/IBM propose commercial devices within five years; reports cite scholars saying the gap between China and the West is “nanosecond-level”, boosting quantum stock sentiment and policy attention [1]
  • Capital market mapping (overseas): Companies like IonQ have seen valuation increases due to industrial “bullish factors”; domestic mapping is mostly reflected in theme investment and policy-driven trends
• Brain-Computer Interface (BCI)
  • Clinical and application: Chinese enterprises have completed dozens of implantations, realizing real-time Chinese decoding and game brain control, and are benchmarking internationally in “three-full” (full implantation/full wireless/full function) clinical trials [1]
  • Policy support: The “15th Five-Year Plan” lists BCI as a future industry, exploring multiple routes, business models, and regulatory frameworks [1]
• Artificial Sun/Controlled Nuclear Fusion (Prudent Reminder)
  • Limited visibility: No authoritative data clearly discloses direct listed companies or mature commercialization paths
  • Current situation judgment: Mostly promoted by national-level scientific research projects and experimental platforms; some material and supporting enterprises may participate as secondary suppliers, but information disclosure and order visibility are low
  • Risk warning: Long industrialization cycle, unclear capitalization path; currently more suitable as long-term scientific research tracking rather than short-term investment main line

3. Detailed Investment Strategy (by track)

• Humanoid Robots (High Attention)
  • Short-term: Focus on whole machine factories with orders and scenario verification, core actuators and joint motor suppliers; pay attention to valuation and performance realization rhythm [0]
  • Medium-term: Focus on cost curve (bulk price reduction and scenario expansion), large model-embodied intelligence integration progress, policy/standard formulation and implementation
  • Risks: Engineering gap from “demonstration to mass production”, computing power bottleneck, uncertainty of scenario verification and commercial ROI
• Commercial Space (Medium-High Attention)
  • Investment main line: Reusable rocket maturity, launch frequency and success rate, orders and downstream constellation/navigation/remote sensing demand
  • Capitalization opportunities: The science and technology innovation board fast track lowers listing thresholds, which is beneficial for leaders to go public and get valuation premiums; pay attention to the window of primary to secondary market transfer and pricing differences [2]
  • Risks: Large capital expenditure, fast technological iteration, launch failure and long payment cycle
• Quantum Computing (Thematic Participation)
  • Layout timing: Take policy catalysis, milestone breakthroughs and overseas mapping as signals, mainly for band operations
  • Key indicators: Number of qubits/coherence time/error correction/cloud service ecosystem, as well as cooperation cases with cloud vendors, finance/pharmaceutical/material industries
  • Risks: Distant profitability, high valuation volatility, uncertainty of technical routes
• Brain-Computer Interface (High Barrier, Long Cycle)
  • Investment window: Follow clinical registration and regulatory breakthroughs, accumulation of implantation quantity and safety data, application demonstrations integrated with AI large models
  • Risks: Ethical supervision, clinical and regulatory rhythm, long commercialization cycle
• Artificial Sun (Only for Long-term Scientific Research Tracking)
  • Suggestion: Temporarily focus on observation; wait for clearer commercialization routes and transparently disclosed participation evidence from listed companies

4. Risk Warnings and Action Recommendations (To be Verified)

• Verification Focus (Need to Supplement Retrieval Next Step)
  • Controlled nuclear fusion: Industrialization timeline and list of participating enterprises disclosed by authoritative institutions (National Energy Administration, Nuclear Energy Industry Association, International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, etc.); project and revenue disclosure in listed company announcements/prospectuses
  • Humanoid robots: Order and delivery rhythm, gross profit margin and capacity ramp-up, scenario ROI data of industrial chain companies
  • Commercial space: Launch success rate, reusable times, cost structure and depreciation, satellite constellation planning and capital expenditure
  • Quantum and BCI: Official disclosure of core technical indicators and milestones, customer structure and revenue contribution, supervision and ethical progress
• Risk Warnings
  • Mismatch between theme popularity and performance realization, valuation bubble and retracement risk
  • Technical and regulatory uncertainty, industrialization progress not meeting expectations
  • Impact of geopolitical technological frictions on supply chains and export controls (e.g., investment restrictions related to quantum and AI have appeared in some discussions [1])

5. List of Authoritative Data and Sources to be Supplemented and Verified (Next Step)

• Artificial Sun/Controlled Nuclear Fusion
  • Roadmaps and phased results from institutions such as the National Energy Administration, international organizations (ITER), and the Institute of Plasma Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Disclosure of project participation, contracts, and revenue proportion in listed company announcements and prospectuses
• Humanoid Robots
  • Order/delivery/gross profit margin/capacity ramp-up data of whole machine factories and core component enterprises (brokerage in-depth research reports and company announcements)
  • Progress of technical and safety standards from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Standardization Committee and industry alliances [0]
• Commercial Space
  • Detailed rules and cases of the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding the “fast track” (Science and Technology Innovation Board issuance and listing guidelines and Q&A)
  • Launch frequency, success rate, recovery times and cost structure of private rocket enterprises (company announcements/press releases/industry association statistics)
• Quantum Computing and BCI
  • Official disclosure of technical indicators and milestones (number of qubits/error correction/clinical implantation count/language decoding rate)
  • Cooperation and revenue realization with cloud service providers, finance/pharmaceutical/material industries

References
[0] Humanoid Robot Shipments Set to Double Annually in China, Morgan Stanley Predicts 14,000 Units in 2025 — Yahoo Finance
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/人形機械人出貨勢逐年翻倍-大摩-華企續錄訂單-今年料銷1-4萬台-201900632.html
[2] Catching Up with SpaceX! China Relaxed IPO Thresholds for Reusable Rocket Enterprises — Yahoo Finance
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/追趕spacex-中國放寬可重複火箭企業ipo門檻-201737284.html
[1] Is IonQ a Stock That Can Make People Rich Overnight? — Yahoo Finance Hong Kong (Discussion on quantum computing industry and China-US gap)
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ionq是能讓人-一夕致富的股票嗎-111500031.html
[1] China’s Brain-Computer Interface Technology is Unique, Catching Up with the US: Using Mind to Play Games and “Speak” Chinese with AI Integration… — Yahoo Finance Hong Kong (On BCI clinical and policy progress)
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中國腦機接口技術獨到-趕超美國-用意念打機-「說」-漢語-ai融合-195300332.html

If needed, I can continue to conduct targeted searches for authoritative materials according to the above “source list”, and output more detailed target lists, valuation and position management frameworks, timelines and risk hedging plans item by item.