SF Express Local 55% Order Growth Sustainability & Instant Delivery Investment Analysis

Based on the collected data, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of SF Express Local’s 55% order volume growth and the investment value of the instant delivery sector.

The 55% order volume growth during the New Year holiday mainly reflects

[1], which comes from:

• Holiday-specific demand
  : Concentrated release of C-end businesses such as flowers, gifts, documents and certificates during the New Year period
• Strong demand for local life services
  : Holidays drive instant delivery demand due to outings, dinners, and gatherings
• Promotion-driven
  : Holiday subsidies and preferential activities from various platforms stimulate consumption

: The high growth driven by holiday effects ; after returning to normal levels, the growth rate will drop significantly. However, the long-term growth logic of the industry still exists.

From search results and industry trends, the long-term growth drivers of the instant delivery industry include:

• Increased penetration of local life services
  : The same-city delivery market shows a rapid expansion trend from 2018 to 2030[1]
• Changing consumption habits
  : Consumers’ demands for immediacy and convenience continue to rise
• Growth in B-end service demand
  : Strong instant delivery demand from industries such as catering, retail, pharmaceuticals, and supermarkets
• Technology-driven
  : Technologies like AI, intelligent scheduling, and drones improve delivery efficiency

: The industry as a whole maintains growth, but the growth rate will gradually , shifting from explosive growth to steady growth.

According to search results, the Chinese instant delivery market presents a

pattern:

Platform	Market Positioning	Advantages	Disadvantages
Meituan Delivery	Delivery within the local life ecosystem	Traffic entry advantage, large order scale, wide rider network coverage	Dependent on takeaway business, profit pressure
Dada Group	JD system + socialized orders	Synergy with JD retail ecosystem, strong instant retail capabilities	High fulfillment costs, large profit pressure
SF Express Local	Third-party professional instant delivery platform	High service quality, strong brand reputation, B-end customer advantages	Traffic dependent on external sources, high rider costs
FlashEx	One-on-one urgent delivery	High-end market positioning, strong service premium capability	Small order scale, heavy cost structure
Ele.me/Hummingbird	Alibaba local life system	Synergy with Alibaba ecosystem, rich merchant resources	Relatively low market share

:

• Meituan Delivery and Dada (including JD Daojia) occupy major market shares
• Leading platforms further expand their leading advantages through scale effects and capital investment

:

• Meituan
  : Monetize traffic within the ecosystem, low-price strategy to gain market share
• Dada
  : Rely on JD Retail, focus on the “second battlefield” of instant retail[2]
• SF Express Local
  : Adhere to third-party positioning, focus on high service quality
• FlashEx
  : Differentiated high-end positioning, one-on-one urgent delivery niche market

:

• Dada fully incorporated into JD Logistics’ financial report, further resource integration[2]
• Leading platforms continue to invest, squeezing the survival space of small and medium players

According to search results, the instant delivery industry faces

:

• High rider costs
  : According to reports, takeaway riders work 14 hours a day and earn only about $1 per order[3], with labor costs remaining high
• Expanding size of gig workers
  : China has over 200 million gig workers[3], with sufficient supply but weak bargaining power
• Continuous price wars
  : Platforms continue to subsidize to compete for market share, affecting profitability
• Low average order value
  : Instant delivery orders are mainly small-value and high-frequency, with low unit prices

:

• Relying on the SF Group brand, service quality leads the industry
• Focus on third-party delivery, forming differentiation from platforms like Meituan and Ele.me

:

• Has a large number of merchant customer resources, with a high proportion of contract-based business
• More diversified service scenarios (documents, flowers, supermarkets, pharmaceuticals, etc.)

:

• Rider network covers major cities nationwide
• Rich experience in intelligent scheduling systems and operations

:

• As a third-party platform, lacks its own traffic entry
• Heavily dependent on external platforms for traffic diversion, high customer acquisition costs

:

• Rider labor costs continue to rise
• Low gross margin in service formats, difficult to cover high fulfillment costs

:

• Competitors like Meituan and Dada continue to increase investment in instant retail
• JD Logistics completed the consolidation of Dada into its financial statements, resource integration effects are emerging[2]

:

• Long-term growth trend of the instant delivery industry is established (market size continues to expand from 2018 to 2030)[1]
• SF Express Local has differentiated advantages in the high-end service market
• There is still room for improvement in the penetration rate of local life services

:

• The industry’s overall profitability is weak, and it is difficult to achieve scale profitability in the short term
• Competitive landscape is deteriorating, price wars may continue for a long time
• Traffic dependent on external sources, relatively weak bargaining power

:

• Macroeconomic downturn affects consumer confidence
• Changes in regulatory policies (rider rights protection, platform anti-monopoly, etc.)
• Recurring epidemics affect offline consumption

:

• The 55% high growth in New Year is a holiday effect and unsustainable
• Industry price wars and cost pressures are difficult to alleviate quickly
• Improvement in profitability needs time to verify

:

• Opportunities
  : The digitalization trend of local life services remains unchanged, and the penetration rate of instant delivery continues to increase
• Risks
  : The industry’s profit model is still being explored, and long-term return rates are uncertain

:

• It is recommended to wait for clearer profit inflection point signals
• Pay attention to the company’s cost control capabilities and improvement in pricing power

:

• Can moderately deploy at the bottom of industry valuations
• But need to bear large performance fluctuations and competitive risks

:

• It is recommended to wait and see, and prioritize targets with clearer profit models

Investors should focus on the following indicators:

1. Order volume growth rate
   : Distinguish between holiday effects and endogenous growth
2. Gross margin trend
   : Reflects pricing power and cost control capabilities
3. Market share changes
   : Market position in fierce competition
4. Proportion of B-end business
   : Relatively stable revenue source
5. Rider cost control
   : Changes in unit fulfillment costs

SF Express Local’s 55% order volume growth in New Year mainly reflects

, and its sustainability is limited. The long-term growth logic of the instant delivery sector is established, but are common challenges for the industry. As a third-party professional instant delivery platform, SF Express Local has differentiated advantages in service quality, but faces dual constraints of traffic dependence and cost pressure. Investment value needs to comprehensively evaluate industry trends, competitive landscape, and company fundamentals; it is recommended to .

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[0] Jinling API Data

[1] Web Search - “Instant Delivery Same-City Delivery Industry Report Market Size 2025” (Search result chart shows the growth trend of China’s same-city delivery market size from 2018 to 2030)

[2] Web Search - “Instant Delivery Dada Meituan Delivery FlashEx SF Express Local Competition 2025” (Mentions Meituan’s “Air Rider” set a new record of 740,000 orders; JD and Taobao Flash Purchase increase investment in instant retail)

[3] Web Search - “Working 14 Hours a Day, Earning Only $1 per Order: Why China’s Gig Workforce Continues to Expand?” - WSJ (December 22, 2025)

[4] Web Search - “Nomura Expects JD Logistics Q4 Revenue to Beat Expectations, But Profit Misses” - Yahoo Finance HK (January 6, 2026)

[5] Web Search - “Meituan’s “Air Rider” Sets New Record of 740,000 Orders” - AASTOCKS (December 21, 2025)

[6] Web Search - “Instant Delivery Local Life Industry Analysis Competitive Landscape 2026” (Industry analysis search results)

[7] Web Search - “SF Express Local New Year Order Volume Growth 2026” (News images show delivery services and New Year order volume growth related content)