Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) Hot Stock Analysis: 213% YoY Net Profit Surge Beats Expectations, Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight Rating

Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) has become a hot stock in the market, mainly driven by its 2025 full-year positive profit warning. The company expects net profit to reach US$1.5-1.6 billion, surging 212%-233% year-over-year (YoY), significantly exceeding the market consensus of US$1.35 billion [1][2]. Morgan Stanley maintains its “Overweight” rating with a target price of HK$175, representing approximately 18% upside from the current share price [1][2]. Gold production reached 46.5 tonnes in 2025, with a 2026 production target of 57 tonnes. Coupled with contributions from the integration of the RG project, this lays a solid foundation for strong growth.

On December 30, 2025, Zijin Gold International released its full-year positive profit warning, announcing preliminary 2025 net profit of US$1.5-1.6 billion, representing a 212%-233% increase from the same period last year of approximately US$481 million [1][2][3]. This performance not only sets a new annual record for the company but also far exceeds the market consensus of US$1.35 billion, reflecting a significant improvement in the company’s fundamentals.

The substantial earnings growth stems from the combined effect of three key factors. First, the gold price continued to rise in 2025, hitting an all-time high in the fourth quarter, directly boosting the company’s revenue and profit levels. Second, the consolidation of the RG project completed in October brought significant profit contributions, and the integration effect of the project was fully reflected in the fourth-quarter results. Third, the company’s gold production achieved steady growth, reaching 46.5 tonnes for the full year, an increase of approximately 19.5% from 38.9 tonnes in 2024, exceeding the target set by management at the beginning of the year [1][2].

From a quarterly perspective, the implied net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 reached US$595-695 million, a substantial increase from US$385 million in the third quarter, representing a sequential growth of over 50% [1][2]. This strong quarterly performance was mainly driven by the full quarterly contribution of the RG project and the rise in gold prices.

Morgan Stanley released a research report on January 2, 2026, giving a positive assessment of Zijin Gold International [1][2]. Morgan Stanley maintains the company’s “Overweight” rating and raised its 2025 net profit forecast from US$1.35 billion, reflecting recognition of the company’s earnings beat. The target price of HK$175 is based on optimistic expectations for the company’s sustained growth capability and gold price outlook [1][2].

Morgan Stanley’s research report pointed out that the 2026 production target of 57 tonnes is basically consistent with the market consensus of 56.7 tonnes, indicating that the company’s growth path is clear and achievable. Institutional endorsement provides certain support for the share price, and also reflects professional investors’ recognition of the company’s fundamentals and growth prospects.

The company produced 46.5 tonnes of gold in 2025, meeting its annual production target [1][2][3]. The 2026 production target is set at 57 tonnes, representing a YoY increase of approximately 22.6%, reflecting management’s positive expectations for capacity expansion. The growth drivers mainly include the continuous release of production capacity from the RG project and the expansion of existing mines.

As an important growth engine for the company, the RG project has contributed significantly to profits since its consolidation in October 2025. The successful integration of the project not only increased the company’s overall production scale but also enhanced its competitive position in the global gold mining industry. Subsequent attention should be paid to the release of synergies from project integration and the impact of global gold price trends on the company’s earnings.

The company’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 102.83x, price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 13.64x, and price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 13.78x, placing it in a relatively high valuation range [3]. A high valuation means the market has fully priced in future growth expectations, and if earnings growth slows or gold prices pull back, the share price may face significant valuation compression pressure. Investors should carefully assess the matching degree between the current valuation level and growth expectations.

From the historical valuation range, the company’s 52-week share price range is HK$111.0 to HK$158.9, and the current share price of approximately HK$147.6 is in the upper-mid range [3]. The share price has pulled back from the high of approximately HK$149.2 on December 31, and is currently consolidating in the HK$147-150 range.

The gold sector as a whole is supported by multiple favorable factors. Continued gold purchases by global central banks, growing gold demand in emerging markets, and increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties have jointly driven up gold prices [4]. Spot gold prices are approaching US$4,400 per ounce, an all-time high, providing strong support for the valuation of mining stocks.

However, gold price movements are highly volatile, and a pullback in gold prices will directly impact the earnings of mining companies. As a pure gold producer, the company is highly sensitive to gold prices, and investors should closely monitor gold price trends as an important leading indicator.

Recent market data shows active inflows of institutional capital. On January 2, there was a large block purchase of 434,000 shares at a transaction price of HK$37.0, involving approximately HK$16.06 million [3]. The trading volume on the day was 3.2211 million shares, with a turnover of approximately HK$469 million, indicating relatively active trading. Support from capital flows provides certain liquidity guarantees for the share price.

: The current P/E ratio exceeds 100x, and the market has fully priced in growth expectations. If actual earnings growth falls short of expectations or gold prices pull back, the share price may face the risk of a “double kill” from valuation and earnings. High-valuation stocks are usually more sensitive to negative information, and investors should remain cautious.

: Gold prices directly affect the company’s revenue and profit, and a pullback in gold prices will directly erode earnings. Gold prices are affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic conditions, geopolitics, and US dollar exchange rates, and their movements are highly uncertain.

: The achievement of the 2026 production target of 57 tonnes is uncertain, relying on the smooth release of production capacity from the RG project and the expansion of existing mines. Mining projects face multiple challenges such as geological conditions, cost fluctuations, and operational efficiency.

: The company’s revenue is mainly denominated in US dollars, while its costs involve multiple local currencies, so exchange rate fluctuations may affect the stability of earnings.

: The company has demonstrated strong growth momentum in 2025, and if the 2026 production target is achieved and gold prices remain high, the company’s earnings are expected to continue to beat consensus.

: Morgan Stanley’s “Overweight” rating and target price of HK$175 provide a reference for potential upside, and institutional professional endorsement helps attract more value-oriented capital attention.

: Against the background of continued growth in global gold demand, the overall prosperity of mining companies is expected to remain, and the company, as an industry participant, is expected to benefit from industry tailwinds.

Type	Price Level	Significance
Resistance Level 1	HK$150	Psychological Level, Short-term Resistance
Resistance Level 2	HK$155	Key Medium-term Resistance
Resistance Level 3	HK$175	Morgan Stanley’s Target Price
Support Level 1	HK$145	Near the 20-day Moving Average
Support Level 2	HK$140	Key Medium-term Support
Support Level 3	HK$135	Trend Confirmation Level

Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) has become a hot stock in the market due to its 2025 full-year earnings beating consensus. The company expects net profit of US$1.5-1.6 billion, surging 212%-233% YoY, mainly benefiting from three positive factors: rising gold prices, consolidation of the RG project, and production growth. Morgan Stanley maintains its “Overweight” rating with a target price of HK$175, representing approximately 18% upside from the current share price. The company produced 46.5 tonnes of gold in 2025 and targets 57 tonnes in 2026, with a clear growth path. However, the current valuation level is relatively high, with a P/E ratio exceeding 100x, and the market has fully priced in growth expectations. Investors should pay attention to the company’s earnings sensitivity to gold price movements and the execution of production targets. Technically, the share price is above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the medium-term trend remains positive, but attention should be paid to the risk of a valuation pullback.

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: This report provides information collection, analysis, and market context to support decision-making. It is not investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial guidance. The analysis aims to objectively present factual information, market context, and risk identification, and does not provide prescriptive advice on buying, selling, or holding securities. Investors should make independent investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance.