Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) Hot Stock Analysis: 2025 Earnings Surpass Expectations with 213% Growth, Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight Rating

This analysis is based on multiple reports from Investing.com [1], MoneyDJ [2], and Sina Finance [3]. Zijin Gold International released its 2025 full-year earnings forecast on January 2, 2026, with net profit reaching US$1.5-1.6 billion, a substantial year-on-year growth of 212%-233%, which significantly exceeded market expectations. The company’s gold production has steadily increased, reaching 46.5 tonnes in 2025, with a target of 57 tonnes for 2026. Morgan Stanley maintains an “Overweight” rating with a target price of HK$175, implying that the current share price still has upside potential. Against the backdrop of a 73% surge in gold prices throughout the year, Zijin Gold International has become one of the best-performing constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index in 2025.

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Zijin Gold International’s 2025 earnings forecast shows the company achieved preliminary net profit of US$1.5-1.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 212%-233%, which greatly exceeded the market expectation of US$1.35 billion, with a beat range of 19%-37% [1][2][3]. This earnings beat is mainly attributed to two factors: first, gold prices continued to rise in Q4 2025, with spot gold hitting a high of $4,550.12 per ounce on December 26, representing a 73% increase from the end of 2024 [5]; second, the completion of the RG project’s integration and consolidation in October contributed significant incremental profits to the company.

From a quarterly perspective, the implied profit for Q4 2025 was US$595-695 million, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 55%-81%, significantly higher than the US$385 million in Q3 [1][2]. This substantial quarter-on-quarter growth indicates that the company is in a golden development period of both volume and price growth. In terms of stock price, boosted by the earnings forecast, Zijin Gold International rose as much as 3.6% intraday to HK$149.2 on December 31, 2025, becoming one of the top three blue-chip stocks in terms of annual gains on the Hang Seng Index [4].

On the production front, Zijin Gold International’s gold production reached 46.5 tonnes in 2025 (excluding the Porgera project), a 19.5% year-on-year increase from 38.9 tonnes in 2024, which is in line with the management’s guidance of approximately 47 tonnes [1][2][3]. The company also announced a 2026 production target of 57 tonnes, slightly higher than the market expectation of 56.7 tonnes, reflecting the management’s positive confidence in future development.

The drivers of production growth mainly include: 1) stable production from existing mines; 2) capacity release from newly acquired projects; 3) emergence of synergies after the integration of the RG project. It is worth noting that while expanding production, the strong rise in gold prices has further amplified the company’s profit elasticity, forming a dual positive pattern of “production growth + price surge”.

Morgan Stanley quickly released a research report after the earnings announcement, maintaining an “Overweight” rating on Zijin Gold International with a target price of HK$175 [1][2]. Based on the current share price of around HK$149, the potential upside is approximately 17%. Morgan Stanley’s core view is that the earnings beat validates the company’s growth logic, and the positive production guidance means that growth in 2026 is still guaranteed.

From the perspective of market consensus, as a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK), Zijin Gold International has benefited from the parent company’s equally strong performance, and Zijin-related stocks have formed a linkage effect in the Hong Kong stock market [4]. Continuous attention from Stock Connect funds has also provided liquidity support for the share price.

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The precious metals market experienced a historic rally in 2025. Spot gold rose 73% for the full year, while spot silver soared 191% to $83.99 per ounce [5]. As a pure gold target, Zijin Gold International’s profit elasticity is highly correlated with the trend of gold prices. During a gold price uptrend, the gross margin of mining companies will increase significantly because sales revenue increases while costs are relatively rigid.

Historical data shows that when gold prices rise, gold mining stocks usually deliver excess returns. However, it should be noted that this correlation is bidirectional—if gold prices pull back, Zijin Gold International’s profits may also face pressure. Therefore, when evaluating the company’s value, investors need to form an independent judgment on the trend of gold prices.

The RG project was consolidated in October 2025, which is one of the company’s most important strategic initiatives of the year [1][2]. Judging from the substantial quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 profits, the integration effect of the RG project is relatively satisfactory. The project’s contributions are mainly reflected in two aspects: 1) directly increasing gold production; 2) reducing unit production costs through synergies.

However, new project integration usually requires a 6-12 month run-in period, during which challenges such as personnel adjustments, process optimization, and cultural integration may be faced. Investors should continue to pay attention to the integration progress to ensure that synergies can be continuously released.

The year-on-year growth rate of net profit exceeded 200% in 2025, and this high base will pose challenges to earnings growth in 2026 [1][2][3]. Against the backdrop of high gold prices, maintaining a similar growth rate requires meeting one of the following conditions: further increase in gold prices, better-than-expected production growth, or significant cost reduction.

The company’s 2026 production target is 57 tonnes, representing a growth of approximately 22.6% compared to 2025, which is a relatively steady growth rate [1][2]. However, if gold prices fail to continue rising or pull back in 2026, profit growth may slow down significantly. Investors should view the high base effect rationally and avoid being overly optimistic about the growth rate.

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: Gold prices rose 73% in 2025, and the excessive short-term increase may trigger profit-taking. Gold prices are affected by multiple factors such as the US dollar trend, global economy, and geopolitics, and have high volatility. If gold prices pull back from the current level, Zijin Gold International’s earnings and share price may come under pressure [5].

: The earnings base was significantly raised in 2025, making it difficult to maintain a high growth rate in 2026. The market may have overly high expectations for the company’s 2026 performance, and if the actual performance falls short of expectations, the share price may face adjustment pressure [1][2][3].

: The current share price has partially reflected the optimistic expectations from the earnings beat. Based on Morgan Stanley’s target price of HK$175, the upside is approximately 17%, but if market sentiment shifts or gold prices pull back, the valuation may face compression.

: The RG project has just been consolidated, and the subsequent integration effect still needs to be observed. There are uncertainties regarding the ramp-up progress, operational efficiency, and cost control of the new project [1].

: The current release is an earnings forecast, and the final annual report data may differ from the forecast. Investors need to pay attention to the confirmation of the formal annual report.

: If global economic uncertainty rises or central bank gold purchase demand continues in 2026, gold prices may continue to rise, and Zijin Gold International will directly benefit.

: The 2026 production target is 57 tonnes, and if actual production exceeds the target, the company’s earnings are expected to grow beyond expectations.

: The current share price is HK$149, and Morgan Stanley’s target price is HK$175, representing an upside of approximately 17%. If market sentiment continues to be positive, the valuation repair space may be larger.

: The parent company Zijin Mining (02899.HK) has also performed strongly, and the linkage effect of Zijin-related stocks may provide continuous capital attention and valuation support for Zijin Gold International [4].

Risk Type	Priority	Time Sensitivity
Gold Price Pullback Risk	High	Short-term (1-3 months)
High Base Effect	Medium	Mid-term (6-12 months)
Earnings Forecast Discrepancy	Medium	Short-term (until formal annual report release)
Integration Effect Verification	Medium	Mid-term (6 months)
Better-than-Expected Production	Medium	Mid-term to Long-term

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Indicator	2024	2025	2026 Target
Gold Production	38.9 tonnes	46.5 tonnes	57 tonnes
Net Profit	~US$500 million	US$1.5-1.6 billion	TBD
Net Profit Growth Rate	—	+212%-233%	Uncertain
Stock Price Performance	—	Top 3 Annual Gainers	To be observed

Price Type	Price/Range	Remarks
Current Reference Price	~HK$149	Intraday high on December 31, 2025
Morgan Stanley Target Price	HK$175	~17% upside from current price
Initial Support Level	HK$140-145	Technical support range
Initial Resistance Level	HK$155-160	Previous high area

: Pay attention to the release of the company’s formal annual report to confirm the earnings forecast data; monitor the immediate impact of gold price trends on the share price.

: Track the integration progress of the RG project; observe the Q1 2026 production and profit performance; assess the actual impact of gold price fluctuations on earnings.

: Verify the achievement of the 2026 production target; assess the global macroeconomy and gold price trends; judge the sustainability of growth.

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The core driver of Zijin Gold International becoming a hot stock in the Hong Kong stock market is its 2025 full-year earnings significantly exceeding expectations—net profit more than tripled year-on-year, with significant synergies from rising gold prices and the integration of the RG project [1][2][3]. Morgan Stanley maintains an “Overweight” rating with a target price of HK$175, implying that the current share price still has upside potential [1][2].

However, investors should maintain a cautious attitude: the current valuation has partially reflected optimistic expectations, the trend of gold prices is uncertain, and the high base effect will affect the growth rate in 2026. In the future, key attention should be paid to formal annual report data, 2026 production execution progress, and the continuous impact of gold price trends on earnings. Investment decisions should be based on independent judgments on the short-to-medium term trend of gold prices, rather than solely relying on the positive news from the earnings forecast.

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: This report is compiled and analyzed based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and bear corresponding risks.