Analysis of the Impact of Solid-State Battery Technological Breakthroughs on the Investment Landscape of the New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain

Based on the latest data collection and professional analysis, I am providing you with a systematic research report on

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On January 5, 2026 (during CES 2026), Finnish startup Donut Lab officially launched the world’s first all-solid-state battery “Donut” that claims to be ready for commercial mass production, causing a sensation in the industry[1]. The core performance metrics of this product are eye-catching:

Performance Metric	Donut Solid-State Battery	Traditional Lithium-Ion Battery	Improvement Margin
Energy Density	400 Wh/kg	250 Wh/kg	+60%
Cycle Life	100,000 cycles	3,000 cycles	33x
Fast Charging Time	10 minutes (0-80%)	30 minutes	+67%
Operating Temperature Range	-30°C to 80°C+	-20°C to 60°C	Significantly Expanded
Safety	No thermal runaway risk	Flammable electrolyte	Intrinsically Safe

• Claims to have lower costs than traditional lithium-ion batteries (previously expected solid-state battery costs to be over 50% higher than liquid batteries)
• No liquid electrolyte, eliminating the risk of thermal runaway and fire
• Retains over 99% capacity in extreme cold (-30°C)
• Planned to achieve mass production and delivery in
  Q1 2026
  alongside Verge Motorcycles’ TS Pro electric motorcycle[2]

Despite the widespread attention generated by Donut Lab’s launch, the industry remains cautious[3]:

1. Doubts about Mass Production Timeline
   : Leading companies like Toyota plan to achieve solid-state battery mass production only in 2027-2028, so Donut Lab’s progress far exceeds industry expectations
2. Undisclosed Technical Details
   : Material system, design scheme, process details, and factory location have not been disclosed
3. Lack of Third-Party Verification
   : Performance data has not yet been verified by independent institutions
4. Doubts about Commercialization Scale
   : The team has only 11-50 members, and production capacity scale has not been verified

“Are these ‘explosive’ figures a real technological breakthrough, or just another marketing gimmick? Maybe we won’t have the answer until the day real mass production is realized.”[3]

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The transformation of solid-state batteries compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries is a

:

【Traditional Liquid Lithium-Ion Battery】
Electrolyte (lithium hexafluorophosphate + solvent) + Separator → Ion transport + Short circuit prevention

【Solid-State Battery】
Solid-state electrolyte (sulfide/oxide/polymer) → Ion transport + Positive-negative electrode isolation (no separator)

• Electrolyte
  : The sulfide route, with the highest ionic conductivity (>25mS/cm) and flexibility, is expected to account for over 40% of the market share by 2035[4]
• Anode
  : Short-term silicon-based anode → Long-term lithium metal anode (10x capacity increase)
• Cathode
  : Upgrade of high-nickel ternary systems, with electrolyte interface compatibility being the key

Raw Material	Application	Major Suppliers	Investment Rationale
Lithium Resources	Lithium metal anode/electrolyte	Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium	Clear demand growth
Zirconium Resources	Raw material for oxide electrolytes	Orient Zirconic	China accounts for 38% of global reserves
Sulfur Resources	Sulfide electrolyte	Yuntu Holdings, etc.	Accelerated localization, cost expected to drop by 80%
Silicon-Based Materials	Anode material	Zhongke Electric, BTR	Capacity expansion of silicon-carbon anodes

Material Type	Market Structure	Key Technology	Key Enterprises
Sulfide Electrolyte	Early stage of localization	Low-cost preparation process	Supporting equipment from Liyuanheng, Xidao Intelligence
Oxide Electrolyte	China accounts for 80% of global production capacity	Large-scale production	Qingtao Energy, Weilan New Energy
High-Nickel Cathode	Dominated by Ronbay Technology, Beijing Easpring Technology	Electrolyte interface optimization	Jointly developed by Zhongwei Co., Ltd. and Sunwoda

• CATL
  : Focuses on sulfide systems, plans mass production in 2025-2026[5]
• Qingtao Energy
  : Plans 10GWh production capacity for oxide systems, in deep cooperation with BAIC and SAIC
• Weilan New Energy
  : Backed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, exclusive supplier to NIO

• BYD, Ganfeng Lithium, Sunwoda, etc. are steadily advancing R&D
• ProLogium Technology (Taiwan) and Beijing Weilan have achieved early commercialization in consumer electronics

Solid-state batteries restructure lithium-ion battery production processes, with

including:

• Fibrosis equipment, isostatic pressing equipment (new core segments)
• Dry electrode equipment (upgrade of rolling equipment)
• High-pressure formation and grading equipment
• Upgrade of lamination equipment

• Xidao Intelligence
  : Launched a complete solid-state battery production line solution[6]
• Liyuanheng
  : Masters the complete manufacturing process of solid-state battery production lines
• Haimuxing
  : Laser equipment supplier

Application Field	2025 Demand	2030 Demand	Growth Potential
New Energy Vehicles	Main Battlefield	Mainstream Configuration	Penetration rate from 0 to 8.8%
eVTOL/Low-Altitude Economy	0.3 GWh	25 GWh	83x
Humanoid Robots	Initial Stage	High-Growth	Emerging Blue Ocean
Consumer Electronics	High-End Models	Full Penetration	High-End Upgrade

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2025 CES        Finnish Donut Lab launches mass-producible solid-state battery (controversial)
2025 Q4         Start of the first year of semi-solid-state battery industrialization
2026            CATL/GAC small-scale vehicle loading tests
2027            All-solid-state battery technology finalization ★Critical Node
                Solid Power plans mass production by year-end
                Toyota/Samsung/Qingtao plan initial mass production
2030            Commercial mass production, demand exceeds 150GWh[6]

According to forecasts from EVTank and multiple institutions:

Year	Shipment Volume (GWh)	Market Scale (CNY 100 million)	Penetration Rate
2025	5.3	53	0.5%
2026	15	180	1.5%
2027	35	420	3.2%
2028	60	720	5.5%
2029	85	1020	7.2%
2030	110	1320	8.8%

Shipment volume in 2030 will increase by approximately 20x compared to 2025

[7]

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“Process equipment is a key element in solid-state battery verification and mass production, with complete line equipment suppliers benefiting earlier than cell manufacturers”[4]

Target	Ticker	Rationale
Xidao Intelligence	300450.SZ	Complete solid-state battery production line solution, covering full-process equipment
Liyuanheng	688499.SH	Core process equipment such as dry electrodes and electrolyte composites
Haimuxing	688559.SH	Laser processing equipment, benefiting from marginal process changes

Target	Ticker	Rationale
Ronbay Technology	688005.SH	Has achieved tonnage-level shipments of high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel all-solid-state cathode materials
Beijing Easpring Technology	300073.SZ	Supplier of solid-state battery cathode materials
Do-Fluoride New Materials	002407.SZ	Polymer/gel solid-state electrolyte, already has production and vehicle loading capabilities
Enjie Co., Ltd.	002812.SZ	Expanded into solid-state electrolyte separator materials

Target	Ticker	Rationale
CATL	300750.SZ	Leader in sulfide route, mass production expected in 2025-2026
BYD	002594.SZ	Full industry chain layout, self-developed and self-produced solid-state batteries
Ganfeng Lithium	002460.SZ	Layout of lithium resources + lithium metal anodes + solid-state batteries
Sunwoda	300207.SZ	Polymer solid-state batteries, has launched 400Wh/kg products

• NIO
  (NIO): Cooperates with Weilan New Energy, first to adopt semi-solid-state batteries
• SAIC Motor
  : Deeply partnered with Qingtao Energy, MG4 will be equipped with a new semi-solid-state battery by the end of 2025
• GAC Group
  : Built China’s first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line

Phase	Time Period	Investment Focus	Risk-Return Characteristics
Introduction Period	2025-2026	Equipment Manufacturers > Material Enterprises	High risk, high return; focus on technology leaders
Growth Period	2027-2028	Battery Leaders > Whole Vehicle Enterprises	Reduced risk, concentration of leading enterprises
Maturity Period	2029-2030	Full Industry Chain Allocation	Restructuring of valuation system, focus on penetration rate growth

1. Technology Development Falling Short of Expectations
   : Issues such as interface impedance and cost control of all-solid-state batteries still need optimization[4]
2. Market Demand Falling Short of Expectations
   : Slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicle penetration may affect demand
3. Raw Material Price Fluctuations
   : Price fluctuations of upstream resources such as lithium and cobalt affect cost structure
4. International Trade Frictions
   : Policy restrictions such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act
5. Risk of Betting on Technical Routes
   : The competitive landscape of sulfide and oxide routes is still unclear

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1. Technological Breakthroughs Accelerate Industrialization
   : Donut Lab’s launch at CES 2025 (whether real or not) marks an acceleration in the process of solid-state batteries moving from the laboratory to mass production, with the industry consensus that 2027 will be a critical turning point[1][2]

2. Restructured Industry Chain Landscape
   : Solid-state batteries will restructure the existing lithium-ion battery industry chain, with
   equipment manufacturers and advanced material
   segments seeing the largest incremental growth potential, while traditional separator and electrolyte segments face value reassessment

3. China’s Dominant Position
   : China holds an absolute advantage in solid-state battery production capacity (accounting for over 80% of global capacity), material processing, equipment manufacturing and other segments, and is expected to replicate the successful path of liquid batteries[7]

4. Investment Window Opened
   : The current period is the early stage of solid-state battery industrialization, representing the optimal investment window for positioning in leading
   equipment + material
   enterprises

“Solid-state batteries are no longer a choice, but a survival issue” —— Xu Zhongling, Dean of Sunwoda Power[7]

With accelerated technological iteration and declining costs, solid-state batteries will gradually penetrate from

to the , and are expected to become the mainstream battery technology choice for new energy vehicles by 2030. For investors, seizing the industry chain restructuring opportunities brought by this round of technological transformation will be one of the core themes of new energy investment in the next decade.

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[1] Sohu Auto - “Finnish Startup Launches Mass-Producible All-Solid-State Battery, Shocking the Industry” (https://www.sohu.com/a/973080312_430289)

[2] East Money - “Is the All-Solid-State Battery That Can Last 1000 Years a Real Technological Breakthrough or Another Marketing Gimmick?” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601063610162769.html)

[3] 6park - “Is the All-Solid-State Battery That Can Last 1000 Years a Real Technological Breakthrough or Another Marketing Gimmick?” (https://www.6park.com/news/1767695189.html)

[4] AJ Securities - “In-Depth Analysis of the Solid-State Battery Industry: Innovation in Material and Process Equipment Systems” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-31/doc-inhesten3689237.shtml)

[5] 36Kr - “L3 Mass Production Unlocked, Battery National Standard Upgraded, Top 10 News Stories of China’s Auto Industry in 2025” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3609484650808323)

[6] Futu - “The World’s First Mass-Producible All-Solid-State Battery Debuts, Highlighting Investment Opportunities in the Solid-State Battery Industry” (https://news.futunn.com/post/66961970/the-world-s-first-mass-producible-all-solid-state-battery)

[7] China Hydrogen Energy Network - “2025 Sensation! Comprehensive Breakthroughs in Solid-State Battery New Materials: Range Exceeds 1000km, Costs Plunge” (https://cn.fuelcellchina.com/Industry_information_details/2648.html)

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The chart above shows a panorama of the solid-state battery industry chain, including five segments: upstream raw materials, midstream materials, battery manufacturing, equipment manufacturers, and downstream applications, as well as a performance comparison between solid-state batteries and traditional lithium-ion batteries in five dimensions: energy density, cycle life, safety, fast charging time, and cost.

The chart above shows the key nodes of the solid-state battery industrialization timeline from 2025 to 2030, as well as the shipment volume and market scale growth curves based on EVTank forecasts.