Apex Fintech CEO Capuzzi on CNBC: Prediction Markets Reshaping Retail Equity Investment Decisions

Bill Capuzzi, CEO of Apex Fintech Solutions, appeared on CNBC’s “Fast Money” program on January 7, 2026, to discuss a notable shift in retail investor behavior: the growing use of prediction markets as a decision-making framework for equity investing [1]. This convergence between speculative prediction markets and traditional investment strategies represents a fundamental change in how retail participants approach financial markets. According to industry data, Robinhood customers alone traded 2.5 billion prediction-market contracts in October 2025, while combined monthly notional trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $8.5 billion during the same period [2]. The emergence of this trend has significant implications for wealth managers, financial platforms, and the broader market structure.

The observation by Capuzzi highlights a structural shift in retail investor psychology that has been developing throughout 2025. Prediction markets, traditionally associated with speculative betting on events such as elections, sports outcomes, and economic indicators, are increasingly being utilized by retail investors as a lens for making traditional investment decisions [1]. This trend represents a bridge between speculation and long-term portfolio strategy, fundamentally altering the decision-making framework that retail participants apply to their portfolios.

The behavior change is characterized by several distinct elements. First, retail investors are adopting prediction market mechanics—binary outcomes, immediate feedback loops, and real-time results—as a model for evaluating equity investments [2]. This represents a departure from traditional fundamental analysis and long-term value investing approaches. Second, the gamified nature of prediction markets is influencing investor expectations, with participants increasingly demanding immediacy and frequent feedback from their investment activities [2]. This shift in expectations is pressuring traditional wealth management practices to adapt their client engagement models.

Apex Fintech Solutions, the company led by Capuzzi, occupies a critical position in this evolving landscape. The company provides the AscendOS™ infrastructure platform that enables fintech firms, broker-dealers, and wealth managers to offer modern investing solutions to their clients [3]. As a subsidiary of PEAK6 Investments, co-founded by Jenny Just and Matt Hulsizer, Apex processes significant trading volume across retail platforms, positioning it as a key observer of behavioral trends in the retail investor ecosystem.

The institutionalization of prediction markets is accelerating their adoption as legitimate decision-making tools. Robinhood, for instance, is expanding its prediction markets business by planning a futures and derivatives exchange in partnership with market maker Susquehanna [2]. This expansion covers sports, elections, and other events, bringing institutional credibility and infrastructure to a market segment that was previously dominated by retail speculation. The participation of established market makers like Susquehanna signals a maturation of the prediction market space and contributes to its normalization as a financial tool.

The Investment News report from December 2025 provides critical context for understanding the behavioral dynamics at play [2]. Wealth managers are observing profound changes in investor psychology that extend beyond simple speculation. Disciplined high-net-worth clients are increasingly adopting short-term, binary-outcome focused behaviors that blur the traditional line between speculation and investing [2]. This cross-pollination of behaviors between prediction markets and equity investing creates both opportunities and risks for market participants.

The conditioning effects of prediction market participation are particularly noteworthy. Investors who engage regularly with prediction markets develop expectations of immediacy and frequent feedback loops that may not align with the fundamental realities of equity investing [2]. This expectation gap can lead to inappropriate position sizing, overtrading, and emotional decision-making that undermines long-term investment objectives. Industry professionals have noted that emotion and confidence are often overpowering statistical probability thinking in these markets, potentially leading to suboptimal investment outcomes [2].

Wealth managers and industry professionals are developing guidance frameworks to help clients navigate this new landscape [2]. One emerging approach involves labeling prediction market activity as “entertainment capital” rather than core portfolio allocation. This semantic distinction helps investors maintain appropriate mental accounting for speculative activities separate from their long-term investment portfolio. The framework suggests position sizing rules that limit speculative exposure to 5-15% of portfolio capital depending on the investor’s strategy sophistication and risk tolerance [2].

The observation from Capuzzi, representing a major fintech infrastructure provider, carries particular weight given the company’s vantage point. Apex Fintech Solutions processes trading activity across multiple retail platforms, providing it with aggregated visibility into behavioral trends that individual market participants may not perceive directly [3]. The company’s AscendOS™ platform supports real-time trading tools and 24/7 market access, reflecting the broader industry evolution toward continuous market participation that prediction markets have helped catalyze [3].

As prediction market participation grows, analysts are observing increased correlation between prediction market sentiment and equity flows. When prediction markets price certain outcomes related to economic policy, corporate earnings, or geopolitical events, retail investors may use these price signals as inputs for their equity allocation decisions. This creates a feedback loop where prediction market activity increasingly influences traditional market behavior, potentially amplifying both trends and corrections in related equity sectors.

The analysis reveals several risk factors that warrant attention from market participants and wealth managers:

: The gamification of investing through prediction market participation may encourage overtrading and short-termism in portfolio construction [2]. Investors conditioned by the immediate feedback loops of prediction markets may become impatient with the longer time horizons typically associated with equity investing, potentially leading to premature position closures and missed long-term opportunities.

: Retail investors increasingly expect immediacy and frequent feedback from their investment activities [2]. This expectation, when applied to traditional equity investing, may lead to dissatisfaction with buy-and-hold strategies and inappropriate turnover in portfolios.

: The binary outcome structure of prediction markets can condition investors to seek similar clarity in equity markets, potentially leading to oversimplified investment theses and inadequate position management [2]. The interaction between emotion and confidence in prediction market environments may undermine disciplined investment approaches.

: Prediction markets can democratize access to event-driven information and hedging strategies that were previously available primarily to institutional investors [2]. The aggregate wisdom of prediction market participants can provide valuable signals about market expectations that retail investors can incorporate into their decision-making.

: The convergence of prediction markets and equity investing is driving platform innovation, with infrastructure providers like Apex Fintech developing real-time tools and expanded market access [3]. This creates opportunities for technology providers and platforms that can effectively serve the evolving needs of retail investors.

: Wealth managers who can effectively integrate understanding of prediction market behavior into their advisory practices may develop competitive advantages in serving the next generation of retail investors. This includes developing appropriate frameworks for discussing speculative activities within the context of comprehensive financial planning.

The January 7, 2026 CNBC appearance by Apex Fintech Solutions CEO Bill Capuzzi represents a significant data point in the ongoing convergence of speculative prediction markets with traditional equity investing [1]. The observation that retail investors are using prediction markets to inform equity investment decisions signals a structural shift in investor behavior that wealth managers and financial platforms must address.

Quantified metrics illustrate the scale of this trend: Robinhood customers traded 2.5 billion prediction-market contracts in October 2025, while combined monthly notional trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $8.5 billion during the same period [2]. Apex Fintech Solutions, as a provider of infrastructure to multiple retail platforms, occupies a unique position to observe and comment on these evolving investor behaviors [3].

Industry observers have identified both positive aspects—such as democratized access to event-driven information—and concerns—such as potential encouragement of overtrading and short-termism [2]. The guidance emerging from wealth managers suggests treating prediction market activity as a distinct category of “entertainment capital” with appropriate position sizing limits [2]. As prediction markets continue their trajectory toward mainstream acceptance, their influence on retail investor behavior and equity market dynamics will likely intensify.